The 2025 Substitute-Stage Killers: Introduction & First Base

In a race for a playoff spot, each edge issues. But all too usually, for causes that reach past a participant’s statistics, managers and basic managers fail to make the strikes that would enhance their groups, permitting mediocre manufacturing to fester on the threat of smothering a membership’s postseason hopes. In Baseball Prospectus’ 2007 ebook, It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, I compiled a historic All-Star squad of ignominy, figuring out gamers at every place whose performances had dragged their groups down in tight races: the Substitute-Stage Killers. I’ve revisited the idea quite a few instances at a number of shops and have tailored it at FanGraphs in an expanded format since 2018.

On the subject of defining alternative stage play, we needn’t hew too intently to exactitude. Any staff that’s gotten lower than 0.6 WAR from a place up to now — prorating to 1.0 over a full season — is usually within the ballpark, although my last lists additionally incorporate our Depth Charts rest-of-season projections, which can nostril them over the road. Generally, acceptable and even above-average protection (which can rely on which metric one makes use of) coupled with whole ineptitude on offense is sufficient to flag a staff. Generally a membership could also be properly forward of alternative stage however has misplaced a key contributor to damage; typically the reverse is true, however the staff hasn’t but climbed above that first-cut threshold. As with Supreme Courtroom Justice Potter Stewart’s definition of hardcore pornography, I do know alternative stage once I see it.

For this sequence, I’ll go across the diamond, declaring essentially the most egregious examples of potential Killers at every place amongst contenders, which I’ll outline as groups which might be above .500 or have Playoff Odds of at the very least 9.5%; the Guardians (43-48 with 9.5% odds) type the decrease boundary of the 21 groups into consideration this 12 months, up from 20 final 12 months however down from 22 in 2023. Whereas I could point out potential commerce targets, I’m much less centered on these groups’ options than I’m the issues, as a result of hey, human nature.

This primary installment will cowl first basemen. All statistics inside this piece are by means of July 9 except in any other case famous.

Giants

LaMonte Wade Jr. obtained many of the taking part in time at first base throughout the first two and a half months of the season, however when the Giants determined his magic, late night time or in any other case, had run out in early June, they designated him for task (finally buying and selling him to the Angels) and added Dominic Smith, who has since hit a superbly Dominic Smith-like .243/.326/.351 (95 wRC+). Nevertheless, the roster has undergone a good larger shakeup since that pair of transactions, because the Giants traded for Rafael Devers lower than two weeks later. His arrival bumped full-time designated hitter Wilmer Flores into short-half platoon obligation, however he hasn’t precisely been tearing issues up (.248/.322/.381, 102 wRC+). For that matter, neither has Devers (.225/.344/.363, 104 wRC+ post-trade, however with a 137 wRC+ general).

The drama in Boston that preceded the Devers commerce (extra on which beneath) included the 28-year-old slugger’s refusal to play first base throughout the season, however upon being dealt, Devers expressed a willingness to study the brand new place. He has been figuring out at first however has been slowed by each a minor groin damage and a few again tightness, and so received’t make his debut on the spot till after the All-Star break on the earliest. Assuming his bat comes round and that he performs a considerable period of time there (which can be a stretch), that also leaves the Giants with a low-wattage Smith/Flores platoon at one place or the opposite. Prime prospect Bryce Eldridge, a lefty-swinging 20-year-old who’s at present no. 17 on The Board as a 6-foot-7, 55-FV prospect, scuffled mightily (.230/.284/.426, 74 wRC+) in his first 16 video games after being promoted to Triple-A Sacramento, then strained his proper hamstring in late June. He received’t return till later this month; given all that, it’s powerful to see him coming as much as change Smith, at the very least simply but. Thus it wouldn’t be a shock if the staff provides one other succesful first baseman, however don’t anticipate one other franchise-jolting transfer.

Crimson Sox

All the time with the drama! Triston Casas’ season-ending rupture of his left patellar tendon led the Crimson Sox to ask Devers to play first, however chief baseball officer Craig Breslow’s poor dealing with of the Alex Bregman signing because it pertained to Devers’ third base function cooled the slugger’s response and led to a commerce that appears suboptimal, at the very least from a short-term standpoint.

For all of that, the Crimson Sox have gotten respectable manufacturing at first base these days from switch-hitting utilityman Abraham Toro (.286/.333/.440, 109 wRC+) and righty Romy Gonzalez (.338/.372/.603, 160 wRC+), the latter of whom has moreover been taking part in second base. Neither has monitor information that assist these ranges of offense, nevertheless, and their protection has been wobbly as properly. Rookie Kristian Campbell, who hit simply .223/.319/.345 (86 wRC+) and performed a really tough second base earlier than being despatched to Triple-A Worcester in mid-June, has been studying first base down on the farm, however even when he takes to the place, that received’t robotically deliver his offense as much as par.

All of which is to say that the Crimson Sox may use a stronger resolution at first, significantly now that they’ve received seven in a row to play their approach into the AL Wild Card race, however whether or not Breslow’s entrance workplace has the urge for food to drag off the sort of deal wanted for an actual improve is an open query. The staff does have a glut of outfielders, however swapping Wilyer Abreu or Jarren Duran, each of whom have a number of years of membership management remaining, for a short-term choice just like the Diamondbacks’ Josh Naylor or the Orioles’ Ryan O’Hearn doesn’t make a lot sense.

Twins

From the outset, signing Ty France to be the common first baseman was a head-scratching transfer; he totaled -0.8 WAR whereas hitting for an 93 wRC+ between the Mariners and Reds final 12 months, making the Killers record for the previous shortly earlier than being DFA’d and dealt to the latter — and it wasn’t the primary time he’d drawn point out on this area. France has hit a equally tepid .252/.312/.360 (90 wRC+) to date, albeit with a .454 xSLG and dramatically improved defensive metrics (4 FRV and a pair of DRS, up from -9 and -7, respectively) to maintain him on the constructive aspect of alternative stage and maintain the entrance workplace on his aspect. Kody Clemens, who’s taken eight of the ten begins at first not made by France, has been extra productive than France (.203/.293/.471, 110 wRC+) whereas spending much more time at second base (38 video games, together with 25 begins), however he’s largely been shielded from lefties.

The staff does have righty Jose Miranda, lefty Edouard Julien, and switch-hitter Mickey Gasper, all of whom have first base expertise, at Triple-A St. Paul. Miranda hit for a 114 wRC+ for the Twins final 12 months, however his protection at both infield nook has been suspect, to say the least. Julien has hit for only a 77 wRC+ within the majors for the reason that begin of 2024, and Gasper, a 29-year-old utilityman who can catch, owns only a .115/.258/.135 in 62 plate appearances within the majors. The Twins (45-47 at this writing) may use an actual improve in the event that they’re severe about contending, however they might wind up as sellers if they will’t climb again above .500.

Rangers

Jake Burger was presupposed to fulfill the Rangers’ urge for food for a productive first baseman, however he’s left them wanting extra, hitting simply .228/.260/.403 (82 wRC+). The Rangers briefly optioned him to Triple-A Spherical Rock in Might, and he frolicked at Double-A Frisco rehabbing an indirect pressure in early July; he’s hit .296/.321/.407 (106 wRC+) in his first 28 PA since coming back from the latter stint. To be truthful, Burger has hit the ball exhausting sufficient to provide a .471 xSLG, however he’s chasing almost 40% of pitches exterior the zone, putting out 25.6% of the time with only a 2.9% stroll fee.

Josh Smith, who’s served as the first fill-in for Burger, has hit a strong .287/.361/.434 (124 wRC+), however he’s been taking part in often at third base since Josh Jung was optioned, and his versatility — which allowed him to cowl shortstop throughout Corey Seager’s absence and to identify at second and all three outfield positions as properly — makes him too worthwhile to park at first. Justin Foscue, a 40+ FV prospect who hasn’t hit a lick in 50 PA within the majors and is batting a modest .269/.360/.487 (111 wRC+) at Spherical Rock, in all probability isn’t the reply given his lack of energy or defensive potential. The staff did simply signal Rowdy Tellez to a minor league deal, however that comes after he hit simply .208/.249/.434 (92 wRC+) and was minimize unfastened by the Mariners in late June; that is the fourth 12 months out of 5 through which he’s posted a sub-zero WAR. Depend the Rangers as one other staff that wants an improve in the event that they wish to contend, however may wind up promoting if issues don’t enhance.

Astros

Those that overlook historical past are doomed to repeat it, which works for each the Astros’ current penchant for questionable free agent offers with first basemen of their mid-30s (first José Abreu, now Christian Walker) and for overcoming gradual begins to take management of the AL West. I checked in on the 34-year-old Walker on Might 23, when he was hitting .199/.268/.333 (72 wRC+). His bat has really perked up considerably since then (.279/.327/.449, 117 wRC+). Likewise, at my final writing, the Astros trailed the Mariners by 3 1/2 video games after shedding to them that night time to fall to 26-25, however since then, they’ve gone an AL-best 29-13 they usually now lead the division by seven video games. I don’t have significantly excessive hopes that Walker’s three-year, $60 million deal will age properly, nevertheless it’s powerful to see Houston concentrating on first base as a precedence on the deadline.

Mariners

Whereas France is not a Mariner, the staff’s state of affairs hasn’t solely improved. Tellez struggled because the staff’s main first baseman earlier than being DFA’d after which launched. These days, the staff has used a platoon that includes lefty Luke Raley and righty Donovan Solano. After hitting 22 homers and posting a 129 wRC+ for the Mariners final 12 months, Raley has batted simply .231/.341/.359 (109 wRC+) with three homers in 139 PA; he missed seven weeks (all of Might and most of June) attributable to an indirect pressure, and it was his return that bumped Tellez off the roster. Solano has hit a skinny .246/.286/.333 (79 wRC+); as he’s not taking part in anyplace in addition to first base (one two-inning cameo at third excepted), his maintain on a roster spot needs to be tenuous.

With Dominic Canzone hitting properly because the staff’s common proper fielder, Raley is more likely to get many of the taking part in time at first going ahead, however he may nonetheless use a greater platoon associate than Solano. Change-hitter Carlos Santana — who spent the second half of 2022 with the Mariners — might be helpful on this capability if the Guardians wind up promoting; he owns a 129 wRC+ in opposition to lefties for the reason that begin of 2023.

Reds

Circa 2023, each Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand had been productive hitters for the Reds, however each have fallen off since then. Steer has began 58 video games at first base whereas getting extra time at DH and within the outfield corners, however he has hit simply .252/.307/.405 (94 wRC+) within the wake of proper shoulder woes. He’s swinging and lacking greater than ever, and each his 6.9% stroll fee and 24.2% strikeout fee characterize swings of three to 4 factors within the fallacious course relative to final 12 months. What’s extra, when he does make contact, he’s averaging simply 86.8 mph in common exit velocity, with a 30.6% hard-hit fee and .346 xSLG. Encarnacion-Strand has hit simply .208/.234/.377 (60 wRC+) whereas taking part in a little bit of third base along with first; he missed seven weeks attributable to decrease again irritation however has produced simply an 89 wRC+ in 77 PA since returning.

Neither Connor Joe, who’s on the key league roster, nor Edwin Ríos, their common first baseman at Triple-A Louisville, provide a lot hope of enhancing the state of affairs, so the Reds are one other staff that’s going to must look exterior their group to search out an improve.