Michael Busch had a fairly good 2024. In his first style of on a regular basis enjoying time within the majors, he hit .248/.335/.440 and socked 21 homers on the best way to a 118 wRC+. After years spent within the minors within the Dodgers system, he appeared to lastly be delivering on his high-strikeout, high-BABIP, high-doubles promise. The Cubs penciled him in as their on a regular basis first baseman. That’s not an imposing batting line, but it surely’s higher than common, so the group spent its winter buying and selling for Kyle Tucker, not attempting to improve from an already-acceptable scenario at first base.
You’ll discover that I mentioned excessive doubles as an alternative of excessive energy. That’s as a result of Busch had desultory bat velocity numbers; he was within the twenty fourth percentile with a 70.3-mph common swing velocity. It wasn’t a problem of him having a tough swing and a delicate swing that he deployed at completely different instances, both. His fast-swing charge, or the proportion of his swings measured at 75 mph or greater, was a mere 11.3%; league common is round 23%. Busch was adept at getting his barrel to the ball and posting good exit velocity numbers, however that’s usually a recipe for doubles as an alternative of homers. He hit 28 doubles, two triples, and 21 house runs final season, about what was anticipated from his profile. He bought the ball within the air lots and nonetheless hit for a excessive BABIP – sounds fairly good to me.
What do you suppose Busch might do to enhance his efficiency in 2025? My rapid reply: Swing quicker and hit extra homers. Hey, test it out! Busch has already hit 18 homers this 12 months in simply over half a season. He’s on tempo to shatter his efficiency final season in just about each statistic. He’s hitting .297/.382/.562 with a 165 wRC+. There’s only one drawback with my swing-hard-and-prosper principle: He’s not swinging tougher.
Certainly, Busch is swinging extra softly than he did final season, albeit solely narrowly. His common swing velocity is right down to 69.7 mph, and his quick swing charge is simply 8.5%. The listing of gamers with 15 or extra house runs whose common swing velocity is slower than Busch’s is barely two guys lengthy: Isaac Paredes and Taylor Ward. In fact, the presence of Paredes is at all times suggestive. So is Busch lifting and pulling his approach to success? In a phrase: No.
Busch is his personal model of gradual swinger with pop. We’ll let Baseball Savant inform the story. Right here’s how Paredes measures up by the suite of anticipated stats and Statcast measures of manufacturing:
Phenomenal, cosmic precise batting run worth; iiiitty bitty anticipated stats. Busch’s board appears nothing like that:
You’ll be able to consider it like this: Paredes swings slowly as a result of he’s attempting to copy one actual contact level each time. Get the bat method out in entrance, angled up and to the pull facet. This method comes with loads of mishits, as a result of it’s fairly troublesome to time the ball properly at that excessive of a hitting place. That’s simply a part of the trade-off, although. Paredes accepts his justifiable share of foul balls, infield popups, and shanks as a result of one house run can compensate for these outs.
Busch, then again, is attempting to sq. up the ball within the air. He’s not aiming for one a part of the stadium particularly. In reality, he’s lifeless in the midst of the pack on the subject of angle of contact. He’s additionally quick to the ball the place Paredes is lengthy, and the place Paredes’ batted ball combine is sort of comically tilted towards fly balls, Busch is extra of a line drive/low fly ball hitter.
The clear good thing about attempting to sq. up the ball as an alternative of pull it’s you catch it flush much more usually. It’s simpler to tag a baseball while you’re comfortable to go the opposite method if that’s the place you’re pitched. It sounds counterintuitive: If you wish to hit the ball laborious, shouldn’t you swing laborious? However it’s not nearly how laborious you swing, but additionally how cleanly you join with the ball. The more true the collision, the extra vitality transfers out of your bat to the ball. In the event you sq. up a 93-mph fastball 95% — in different phrases, hit it 95% as laborious as is theoretically potential given bat and ball velocity — with a 70-mph swing, it’ll produce an exit velocity of roughly 100.5 mph. In the event you as an alternative swing at 78 mph and sq. it up solely 80%, you’ll hit the ball 92.5 mph. Busch is maximizing his alternatives to sq. up the ball.
How does he accomplish that trick? By adjusting his swing to the incoming pitch. Right here’s Busch’s spray chart when he makes contact with a heater touring 95 mph or tougher:
And for comparability, right here’s Paredes’ spray chart in opposition to the identical group of pitches:
In the event you’re extra centered on contacting the ball sq. than the place on the sector you’re hitting it, you’ll have a tendency to satisfy quick pitches deeper and ship them the opposite method, like Busch. Distinction that along with his method in opposition to secondary pitches:
His pull charge surges, he sends fewer balls the opposite method, and he launches a ton of house runs. He does the identical with slower fastballs, naturally – if a pitcher offers him an opportunity to activate the ball, Busch is comfortable to oblige him:
It’s an odd however worthwhile approach to hit. No one in every of of baseball produces greater exit velocities with slower swings. However there may be, actually, a straightforward comparability: Busch’s teammate Justin Turner. At his peak, Turner operated the identical method; he was by no means a bat velocity god or perhaps a demigod. As a substitute, he tailor-made his method to the best way he was pitched and put the ball within the air with a slowish however correct swing that led to laborious aerial contact aplenty.
Turner posted a 136 wRC+ over almost a decade with the Dodgers utilizing that method. He hit much more doubles than homers over that point, and that’s additionally what I anticipate Busch to do long run, 2025 homer binge however. His swing is just like Turner’s, which brings me to a different key a part of Turner’s success: avoiding strikeouts.
Busch struck out lots as a minor leaguer, and he struck out lots in 2024 — 28.6% of the time to be actual. He isn’t blessed with Turner’s preternatural contact abilities, so he’s by no means going to strike out as hardly ever as Turner did at his greatest. For his complete profession, Turner has a 71.4% contact charge when he chases pitches exterior of the strike zone. Busch’s profession mark is 48.3%. They’re a lot nearer on the subject of in-zone contact – 89.3% for Turner, 85.2% for Busch – however that out-of-zone distinction is significant.
Ultimately, I believe it’s a trade-off that Busch is comfortable to make. Nobody hits properly on these pitches exterior the zone. Even Turner, a grasp of creating out-of-zone contact, hit for a desultory .286 wOBA when he put them in play. By comparability, he put up a .419 wOBA when he hit a pitch throughout the boundaries of the zone. (These are Turner’s numbers throughout his time with the Dodgers, when he was at his greatest.) In different phrases, Busch’s whiffs come largely on pitches that he wasn’t going to do a lot with anyway.
May he change his two-strike method? Completely. He’s missed on 48% of his chases with two strikes in his main league profession, a poor mark for somebody who has demonstrated stable in-zone bat management. However that adjustment is small potatoes, and this 12 months he’s already reduce his strikeout charge by six share factors as a result of he’s chasing much less steadily, all whereas sustaining his spectacular and spectacularly unusual manufacturing on contact.
May we be seeing the beginning of a profession that can find yourself wanting like a left-handed model of Turner? I’m hesitant to foretell that final result, as a result of throughout his prime years Turner was an outlier, a expertise who succeeded like nobody else in baseball. However I do really feel snug saying this: Busch’s success isn’t a fluke. His method won’t line up with what we see from most gamers nowadays, however that doesn’t imply his efficiency isn’t for actual. Loud, elevated contact is nice. How laborious you swing issues, however provided that you hit the ball. On that observe, I’ll depart you with this: