If Junior Caminero Had Any Extra GDPs He’d Be Macroeconomics

Junior Caminero has, as of this writing, grounded into 22 double performs in 333 plate appearances this 12 months. The primary 12 months each the AL and NL counted double performs was 1939; since then, there have been some 9,295 particular person participant seasons of 300 or extra plate appearances. Caminero’s present marketing campaign is already within the high 300 in double performs.

Two months in the past, Leo Morgenstern wrote an article titled “Carlos Correa Is Holding the GIDP Alive,” which conceded, proper within the lede, that despite the fact that Correa had grounded into an appalling six double performs in April alone, Caminero was main the league. The Rays third baseman has solely expanded that hole; Jacob Wilson is second with 15 double performs.

Grounding right into a double play is the second-worst factor a hitter can do on the plate. However, considerably perversely, nice gamers floor into plenty of them. The all-time profession leaderboard in double performs is an inventory of the best hitters who ever lived. Within the high 27 hitters in profession double performs, you’ll discover 18 Corridor of Famers, a quantity that may solely develop when Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Yadier Molina, and (if individuals chill slightly about PEDs) Robinson Canó hit the poll within the subsequent few years.

Properly, in fact, the profession leaders in double performs are all within the Corridor of Fame; it’s a must to be an awesome hitter simply to final the 20-odd years it’d take to rack up huge numbers in any counting stat. OK, effectively, of the 12 gamers who’ve grounded into 30 or extra double performs in a season (Jim Rice, the single-season file holder, did it thrice), you’ll discover six Corridor of Famers (Rice, Cal Ripken Jr., Bobby Doerr, Ivan Rodriguez, Carl Yastrzemski, and Dave Winfield), plus an MVP (Jackie Jensen), a man who’s in all probability going to finish up within the Corridor of Very Good (Correa), and three different All-Stars (Ben Grieve, Billy Butler, and Tony Armas).

By the way, 5 of those 12 gamers had their huge double play season for the Purple Sox. That features Armas and Rice, who every grounded into 31 twin killings whereas sharing an outfield in 1983. That workforce grounded into 171 double performs, tied for the third-highest complete ever. Of the 14 place gamers who recorded not less than 50 plate appearances on that workforce, seven grounded into 12 or extra double performs. I can not think about what that should’ve been like to look at.

However once more, double performs, identical to strikeouts, are a part of the discount for a sure sort of hitter. Going again to 1983, Rice grounded into 31 double performs, however he additionally hit .305 and led the league in dwelling runs and complete bases. That looks like a fairly good trade-off.

So, too, for Caminero, who has best-in-baseball bat pace and above-average contact expertise, but additionally has a profession 1.32 GB/FB ratio. That’s not an outlier or something, however it’s excessive. The Rays will take it as a result of he’s main the workforce in dwelling runs and slugging proportion, and is second amongst Tampa Bay’s place gamers in WAR, by a tenth of a win. However Caminero has a staggering double play propensity.

The Rays know a factor or two about this type of hitter, having had Yandy Díaz within the lineup for seven seasons now. Díaz will hit right into a double play — he’s at the moment at 9, which is tied for fifteenth within the league — however to not this extent.

No person hits into double performs to this extent. Properly, I assume that’s not actually true. Billy Hitchcock did, however solely as soon as.

you’re in deep when Sherm Lollar reveals up.

This can be a prodigious double play charge. Caminero’s double performs per workforce sport charge has him on tempo for 42 double performs. On a per-plate look foundation, if he will get as many PA as Rice did when he set the file (708), Caminero will floor into 47 double performs this 12 months. Keep in mind, the single-season file is 36. If Caminero grounds into double performs at this charge for the remainder of his profession, he’ll break Pujols’ all-time file in his age-30 season.

What I wish to know is why he’s doing this. On one hand, laborious contact means the ball will get to the infielders faster and provides them extra time to show two. Add a gradual, right-handed hitter into the equation, and there you go.

However whereas Caminero is a groundball hitter, he’s not even near essentially the most excessive groundball hitter within the league. The identical for his foot pace; he’s gradual, however he’s a 3rd of a second faster to first base than the slowest guys within the league.

Perhaps it’s a mix of the 2. There are 416 gamers who seem on Baseball Savant’s dash pace leaderboard and still have not less than 30 PA this season. The imply home-to-first time amongst these gamers is 4.47 seconds; one normal deviation under the imply is 4.66 seconds. Let’s do the identical with groundball charge; the imply is 42.9%, and one normal deviation increased than the imply is 50.55%. So what number of gamers are on one finish of the bell curve in each pace and groundball charge?

OK, I reduce the pie too skinny. All 4 of those gamers are above the median double play-per-PA ratio, however Rodríguez has barely performed, and Quero is barely above the median. Let’s loosen the restrictions slightly: Dwelling-to-first of 4.6 seconds or slower, groundball charge of 47% or increased, and 200 or extra PA.

That is extra prefer it. We’ve acquired Caminero, plus Alec Bohm, who’s one of many Nationwide League leaders. However there are a pair different variables I wish to strive.

The opposite factor about Caminero is he hits the ball extremely laborious. Hitting the ball laborious, on the bottom, will increase the probabilities that the ball will get into the outfield, via the fielders, for a base hit. However it’s a double-edged sword; a hard-hit grounder that doesn’t discover a gap solely will get to the infielders quicker, and due to this fact provides them extra time to get each outs.

A hitter with huge groundball exit velocities should have a excessive BABIP on these batted balls, however he additionally would hit into plenty of double performs.

After trying into the numbers, what I discovered shocked me slightly.

The connection between groundball exit velocity and BABIP isn’t linear, as a result of a 40-mph flop shot that lands on the third final analysis 50 toes from anybody is all the time going to show right into a single. However above a sure threshold of exit velo, the more durable you hit a ball the extra probably it’s to show right into a base hit.

The stunning factor is that the identical relationship didn’t exist for double performs. Grounders under 60 mph are too delicate to show two on, however every part else turns right into a double play on a few third of related alternatives. For each bucket 71 mph up, a groundball with a runner on first and fewer than two outs has between a 32.9% and a 38.4% likelihood of being transformed right into a double play.

Nothing is getting via for Caminero, even at excessive exit velocities. And when there’s a possibility to show a double play, the ball not getting via to the outfield means it turns into two outs, not one.

However the place you hit the ball issues.

It shouldn’t be stunning that balls hit to the three non-first base infielders generate the best double play conversion charge. Caminero hits 78.0% of his grounders to these positions, which isn’t truly that uncommon, particularly for a right-handed hitter.

What’s uncommon is that throughout all the league this 12 months, 7.1% of pull-side grounders by right-handed hitters — no matter base-out state — have become double performs. For Caminero, that quantity is 25.0%. How is that even attainable?

It’s as a result of Caminero involves the plate with a runner on first and fewer than two outs greater than virtually anybody within the league. And virtually everybody who hits in these conditions lots grounds into plenty of double performs.

Soto and Alonso are among the many league leaders in GDP this 12 months. Decide grounded into 22 double performs final 12 months, which is half a season’s work for Caminero however lots for anybody else. Olson’s been in double digits each full season since 2018. Fly ball guys like Albies, Rooker, and Suzuki don’t hit into that many double performs, however pace isn’t as a lot of a assist as you’d assume. Chourio and Rodríguez can completely motor, and so they get doubled up on a regular basis.

I went into this train on the lookout for one magic motive why Caminero can’t cease hitting into double performs, and there isn’t one. It’s that he hits each stereotype for a man who makes outs two at a time: Groundball hitter, right-handed, gradual, comes up with runners on base on a regular basis. Even with all these comorbidities, what he’s doing is type of ridiculous, however we’re within the realm of the explicable now.