Not too long ago, I’ve needed to re-evaluate a strongly held perception. It’s an essential factor for accountable adults to do every so often; even when the opinion wasn’t incorrect on the time, situations can change. And I’m not too proud to establish such a scenario now.
Right here’s the previous take, the one I’m revising now: Jeremy Peña is essentially the most overrated participant in baseball. On the time, it made sense. But it surely positively doesn’t now.
Peña got here to nationwide consideration at a portentous place in house and time. The Houston Astros had simply let go of their celebrity shortstop, Carlos Correa, the one-time future face of the franchise, their homegrown talisman. Peña, a 24-year-old rookie, stepped proper up and crammed these monumental footwear slightly nicely, all issues thought-about.
He performed 136 video games in 2022, hitting .253/.289/.426 with 22 homers. He received a Gold Glove and, extra notably, was named MVP of each the ALCS and World Sequence. And Peña was terrific within the playoffs; he hit .345 with 4 house runs in 13 video games. He had at the very least one base hit in 12 of these video games, and scored a run in 10 of them.
The rookie shortstop homered for the one run of the 18-inning marathon Recreation 3 of the ALDS, which put the Astros by to the subsequent spherical. Within the last three video games of the World Sequence, during which the Astros overhauled a 2-1 deficit on the street, Peña went 7-for-13, together with a fourth-inning house run in Recreation 5 that put the Phillies on the again foot for good.
Overlook changing Correa; now you’ve obtained this lean, right-handed-hitting rookie shortstop with 20-homer energy and a aptitude for clutch moments, taking part in a pivotal function on a World Sequence-winning staff. What’s that if not 1996 Derek Jeter?
That hype by no means appeared credible to me. Certain, he had 20-homer energy, however that’s solely so helpful for a participant with a sub-.300 OBP. And the Gold Glove-caliber protection? Nicely, DRS completely adores Peña, however different superior defensive metrics are extra lukewarm. I’ve seen plus-15-run protection at shortstop earlier than, and it seems to be like Andrelton Simmons or a younger Francisco Lindor; Peña appeared extra pedestrian.
Over the primary three full seasons of his profession, Peña posted a 100 wRC+ whereas averaging 16 house runs and three.0 WAR per yr. That’s a very good participant! A priceless supplemental starter on a World Sequence winner, for certain. However there are a ton of actually good shortstops within the league proper now, some — Lindor, Corey Seager, Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson — with really game-breaking ability units. A league-average hitter with some main offensive flaws, with above-average protection at greatest? That didn’t excite me very a lot by comparability.
Midway by the 2025 season, nonetheless, Peña is main all shortstops in WAR.
Shortstop isn’t fairly as productive a place this season because it was final yr; at this level in 2024, the highest three shortstops in WAR had been Henderson, Witt, and Mookie Betts, and all three are having considerably disappointing campaigns in 2025. However Peña isn’t simply beating out scrubs right here. Witt, Trea Turner, and Jacob Wilson are all on tempo for greater than 6.0 WAR; Wilson is nearly hitting .350, for God’s sake.
Elly De La Cruz has 18 house runs and 21 stolen bases, which places him on observe to change into simply the seventh shortstop ever to publish a 30-30 season. And he’s not too removed from being on tempo for 40-40, a feat achieved by just one shortstop ever: Alex Rodriguez.
However Peña, whom I’d as soon as dismissed as hitting for an empty common, is now toting round a .325/.380/.495 batting line and a 150 wRC+, which leads all certified shortstops in 2025. His 4.0 WAR, having performed in all 81 of Houston’s video games this yr, is “within the MVP dialogue” territory on the very least. No matter I thought of Peña earlier than, I don’t suppose it’s attainable to overrate a participant who’s produced the best way he has up to now this season.
Plainly Peña himself has chosen this second to rethink his place within the league-wide pecking order. He and the Astros are (or had been) in negotiations for a contract extension that will’ve purchased out his last two arbitration years, plus three seasons of free company. 5 complete, at just a little north of $20 million per.
Simply this week, nonetheless, Peña switched brokers, from Beverly Hills Sports activities Council to the dreaded Scott Boras. Which doesn’t imply Peña received’t signal an extension — Boras appears to get alongside nicely with Houston, having locked Jose Altuve and Lance McCullers Jr. into long-term extensions there — nevertheless it does point out Peña is looking for high greenback for his providers.
What ought to Peña be asking for? Nicely, as a university participant who didn’t debut till he was 24, Peña obtained just a little little bit of a late begin on the march towards free company, however he’s additionally been a starter since Opening Day of his rookie yr, which makes his service time calculation fairly simple.
If Peña doesn’t signal an extension, he’ll hit free company heading into his age-30 season. He’ll be two years older than Seager, one yr older than Dansby Swanson, and the identical age as Turner after they had been free brokers. Largely, which means he received’t be in line for the type of ludicrously long-term contracts Juan Soto and Bryce Harper obtained.
But when he’s this productive on the finish of his 20s, massive cash remains to be very a lot a risk. If I had to decide on, I’d have this model of Peña over Swanson in his stroll yr, and the latter nonetheless obtained a seven-year contract because the fourth-best shortstop in his class. For that matter, I may see Peña going into free company as Turner with higher protection however worse baserunning. He’d have to maintain hitting like this for greater than three months, nevertheless it’s a way more lifelike risk than it was this time final yr.
The sky is the restrict. The massive query now’s whether or not Peña, a real expertise 100 wRC+ man for 3 years, is now a true-talent 150 wRC+ man.
Most likely not. Peña has unquestionably made large enhancements on the plate over the course of his main league profession. Simply off the highest of my head, he’s reduce his strikeout charge from 24.2% as a rookie to 17.1% final yr and 16.0% this yr — that’s a discount of greater than a 3rd. And for a hitter who doesn’t stroll and doesn’t have top-end energy, not putting out is a significant plus.
However whereas Peña’s enhancements are actual and significant, I do suppose they’re considerably overstated by the top-line numbers. Within the olden days, we’d speak about his .364 BABIP, however I discover this graph of his wOBA (.381) versus his xwOBA (.347) to be most illuminating.
A wOBA within the excessive .340s remains to be nice, particularly for a shortstop, nevertheless it’s not what’s exhibiting up within the field rating proper now. José Ramírez has a .379 wOBA proper now; when you get down round .350 you’re taking a look at Zach Neto.
And Peña isn’t making significantly tougher contact. He’s not placing the ball within the air extra — in truth, his groundball/line drive/fly ball ratios are eerily just like what they had been final yr.
Miscellaneous Underlying Offensive Stats
| Season | GB/FB | LD% | GB% | FB% | Bat Velocity | Contact% | HardHit% | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1.57 | 19.2% | 49.4% | 31.5% | 72.6 mph | 77.1% | 38.8% | 5.4% |
| 2025 | 1.58 | 19.8% | 49.0% | 31.1% | 72.4 mph | 75.9% | 41.3% | 7.7% |
Simply wanting on the numbers, it looks as if Peña has made various marginal beneficial properties — a couple of extra walks right here, just a little extra selectivity inside the strike zone there — which have mixed to repay massive.
Plus, there’s one massive one: The fabled in-air pull charge. Final yr, 15.2% of Peña’s batted balls had been within the air and to the pull facet; this yr, that share is as much as 20.1%.
The implications of that change are staggering for a right-handed hitter who performs his house video games in Daikin Park. The Crawford Containers are so near house plate Peña can in all probability see the pores of the followers sitting within the left area seats.
To this point this yr, Peña has hit 48 balls 300 toes or extra. Of these, 22 have been to the pull facet, together with 16 out of Peña’s 20 base hits on balls of that distance, and all 11 of his house runs.
If you happen to’re frightened in regards to the discrepancy between Peña’s wOBA and his xwOBA, this can be a fairly highly effective counterargument for 2 causes. First, xwOBA accounts for launch angle and exit velo, however not batted ball route. So a hitter who places his fly balls into a very worthwhile space of the sector, as Peña does, must naturally outperform his anticipated stats to some extent.
Second, there’s a really clear rationalization for the way Peña is doing this. And consider it or not, it comes from a spot that’s so narratively becoming you virtually couldn’t make it up.
Final yr, Peña got here to the plate together with his toes sq. and his bat wobbling between one and two o’clock. His leg kick naturally introduced his entrance foot nearer to the plate, leading to his momentum going towards proper middle.
You need Jeter? This swing is Jeter as all get-out. Any extra Jeter and it’d include a present basket.
But it surely’s additionally type of like stepping within the bucket. It’s the bucket within the left-handed batter’s field, however nonetheless, Peña’s momentum was not going straight again towards the pitcher.
This yr, as an alternative of attempting to appropriate his stride, Peña is simply beginning together with his bat on his shoulder, his stance open, and his toes farther aside.
It seems to be to me like he’s maintaining his weight again longer as nicely, however what’s indeniable is that he’s now striding immediately towards the pitcher. Meaning he can pull the ball with out preventing his physique weight, and permits him to take larger benefit of that nice architectural present out in left area.
Now right here’s the enjoyable half, from a characteristic in The Athletic this week by Chandler Rome. Peña landed on the brand new stance over the winter, throughout a session together with his new exercise buddy: Carlos Correa. How cool is that?
It took a pair years, and a few tinkering, however Peña is now indisputably the type of participant he was considered as a rookie. He’s been the very best place participant by a mile on the staff with the second-best report within the AL. He’s going to be an All-Star, and barring a large second-half regression he must vacuum up down-ballot MVP votes. The hype, if something, was not sufficiently big.