Struggling Mets Choice Struggling Francisco Alvarez to Struggling Syracuse

It’s wanting like this isn’t the yr for Francisco Alvarez in spite of everything. On Sunday, the day after they ended a seven-game shedding streak, the Mets introduced that that they had optioned Alvarez to Triple-A Syracuse and referred to as up Hayden Senger to take his place. The 23-year-old catcher already has a three-win season below his belt, and if not for a thumb harm that restricted him to 100 video games final season, he’d seemingly be a top-10 catcher when it comes to WAR over the previous two seasons. This season hasn’t gone to plan both, although, and Alvarez will now attempt to set issues straight with a Syracuse Mets staff that has dropped 12 of its final 14 video games.

Alvarez fractured the hamate bone in his left hand on March 8, making this the second season in a row through which an harm to his catching hand has interfered along with his likelihood to take the subsequent step as an All-Star-level dual-threat backstop. Alvarez began a minor league rehab stint a really quick 32 days later, batting .179 over 10 video games at three ranges. He returned to the Mets on April 25, and it’s exhausting to flee the conclusion that the staff introduced him again to quickly. After lacking a piece of spring coaching and struggling throughout his rehab task, it maybe shouldn’t be a shock that he didn’t get off to a roaring begin, however now {that a} skid has dropped them to at least one sport behind the Phillies for the NL East lead, the Mets are not content material to let him determine it out in Queens.

Let’s speak concerning the offense first. Whereas it hasn’t been ideally suited, it hasn’t been disastrous both. Alvarez has gotten 138 plate appearances over 35 video games, working a 91 wRC+. He put up a 97 wRC+ in 2023 and a 102 in 2024, so whereas that is the bottom mark of his profession and a disappointment for a participant who was anticipated to place all of it collectively on the plate, it’s in no way unprecedented. Alvarez had considerably worse 35-game stretches in every of his final two seasons:

Alvarez has been extra aggressive of late, chasing and whiffing at career-high charges, and his 73% zone contact charge is among the many worst within the league. Nevertheless, as a result of he’s elevated his zone swing charge far more than his chase charge, SEAGER places him within the 98th percentile, by far the very best mark of his profession. And since he’s seeing fewer strikes than he did in both of the previous two seasons, Alvarez is working a career-high stroll charge to go along with his career-high strikeout charge. You may assemble an actual argument that the elevated stroll charge is price the additional strikeouts, however the Mets clearly don’t see it that means. Supervisor Carlos Mendoza particularly cited plate self-discipline as Alvarez’s drawback, telling reporters, “There have been stretches the place we felt, I felt like a few video games the place, OK, that’s what it’s speculated to appear to be. However then he’ll go a few video games the place he’s late with the fastball after which he chases, so simply on the lookout for consistency right here.”

The opposite a part of that argument has to do with the truth that Alvarez is crushing the baseball, although you wouldn’t realize it from his career-low .098 ISO. We’re speaking a few small pattern, however he’s working profession highs in hard-hit charge, in addition to common, max, and Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity. All that contact high quality hasn’t become energy largely as a result of Alvarez hits the ball on the bottom an terrible lot; simply 9% of his hard-hit balls have been within the air to the pull facet, down from 29% in 2023 and 19% in 2024. The batted ball metrics are additionally shaping up in a bizarre means. Alvarez is working the best BABIP of his profession, however check out this:

Alvarez has gone from outperforming his wOBA when he hits the ball exhausting to underperforming it by fairly a bit. However he’s additionally outperforming it when he doesn’t hit the ball exhausting. That’s to not say that each one of that is the results of luck. Alvarez is working a career-low pull charge, and that drop-off is much more dramatic on balls within the air.

It’s not essentially that Alvarez is struggling to meet up with pitches; he additionally went into the offseason decided to cease pulling the ball a lot. “The first focus for me has been to hit the ball the opposite means or up the center, however there are going to be days the place I’m going to be pulling the baseball,” he mentioned in April. “However in all probability 80 % of the time my focus is extra to the center of the sphere to the other subject.” It has labored, possibly too nicely. In accordance with Statcast’s bat monitoring metrics, his intercept level is 1.3 inches deeper than it was final season. In the mean time of intercept, his bat went from being angled three levels to the pull facet to 5 levels to the other subject. In all, anticipated metrics like xwOBA suppose that Alvarez needs to be just about nearly as good a hitter as he was final season, with the walks making up for the additional strikeouts and the contact high quality making up for the less-than-ideal launch angles. Nevertheless, DRC+, which will get deeper into the method, is way more skeptical:

Alvarez is an all-or-nothing energy hitter, who can be groundball susceptible as a result of he possess a flat swing; over the previous three seasons, his 28 diploma swing path tilt put him in simply the fifteenth percentile. We’ve seen loads of hitters make that work to various levels, nevertheless it’s not all the time the world’s most satisfying mixture. He’s going to undergo durations the place he doesn’t make a lot contact, and he’s going to undergo durations when he’s hitting the ball on the bottom means, means an excessive amount of. He’s been doing each this season, nevertheless it’s vital to remember that we’re speaking a few small pattern, simply as we’re speaking a few participant coming off an harm and lacking spring coaching.

Along with altering his strategy, Alvarez has additionally modified his setup, going from a comparatively stationary stance along with his bat resting on his shoulder to a extra fluid stance along with his bat angled greater and his arms decrease:

As Mendoza famous on Sunday, the hamate harm price Alvarez the possibility to get snug with these modifications.

All that mentioned, the larger concern comes on the defensive finish. “I really feel just like the receiving and the blocking might be an space that we wish to see some enchancment,” mentioned Mendoza. Over the previous two seasons, Alvarez was among the finest framers within the sport, with 9 framing runs in 2023 and 7 in 2024 in accordance with Statcast. This season, he’s at -4. Baseball Savant breaks the perimeters of the strike zone into eight totally different sections. Alvarez grades out as under common in seven of them, and among the many backside 10 within the league in 4 of them. In earlier seasons, he was glorious on the backside of the plate, however this season, he ranks thirty eighth out of 56 certified catchers. That may be a main concern that must be addressed. Even in his excellent rookie season in 2023, Alvarez was a below-average hitter, with almost all of his worth coming from framing. Perhaps he simply wants extra time to get well from an harm to the bottom of his catching hand, however that ability is what gave him his actual star potential. With out it, he’s a distinct participant.

Alvarez’s blocking has additionally been the topic of a lot criticism, as his 4 handed balls are tied for fifth-most in baseball. Nevertheless, Baseball Prospectus sees him as an above-average blocker this season, and Statcast sees him as precisely common. The Statcast numbers present that that is seemingly a state of affairs the place the attention check isn’t treating him nicely. Alvarez has let 17 pitches get by him in 2025, however they’re not those you may anticipate:

Alvarez’s alternatives have been fairly a bit more durable this season. He’s really been higher than common on pitches that Statcast grades as having medium issue, however he’s given these features again on possibilities that grade out as simple. However reasonably troublesome blocks don’t stick out that a lot, so what we discover are all of the handed balls on simple possibilities. Furthermore, Alvarez is at the moment catching 41% of would-be basestealers, so he’s making up some worth along with his arm.

Now that we all know all this, what does it say concerning the staff’s determination to possibility Alvarez? It relies upon. If his points merely stem from the harm and the shortage of preparation time – if he’s going to determine it out ultimately – then sending him down proper now doesn’t make a ton of sense. He has already been ceding enjoying time to Luis Torrens. Torrens has been glorious at framing, which has allowed him to place up 0.7 WAR to Alvarez’s 0.5, although his bat has been worse and his blocking really has been dangerous. Senger is 28 and was working only a 59 wRC+ in Syracuse. In truth, he hasn’t put up an above-average offensive line within the minors since 2021. So swapping in Senger for even this decreased model of Alvarez will seemingly price the Mets considerably within the short-term, and there’s all the time a danger that this sort of demotion may harm a participant’s confidence.

Alternatively, if the Mets actually suppose that Alvarez may use a reset to work on his framing and determine his strategy, then it makes all of the sense on the planet to ship him down proper now. Mendoza is raring to get Alvarez extra at-bats, however the Mets don’t suppose they will afford to whereas they’re battling for the division and Torrens is (barely) outperforming him. It’s exhausting to say whether or not Alvarez’s struggles on the plate are the results of his new strategy, residue from the harm, or just dangerous luck over a brief pattern, however the Mets are clearly nervous about his plate self-discipline. In the event that they’re going to tinker along with his swing, it’s in all probability higher to try this in a lower-pressure surroundings. If it leads to Alvarez having a fantastic second half, it will be nicely well worth the short-term downgrade.

To be clear, if Alvarez does bounce again in some unspecified time in the future, there can be no option to actually know the rationale for it. Did the Mets assist him determine one thing out? Did he simply want a while to get again to his outdated self? Loads of folks can have an opinion, however we gained’t know what would have occurred if the staff had simply held to their present course. It appears secure to imagine that Alvarez will get again to one thing like his outdated self in some unspecified time in the future, and if that occurs quickly, it’ll make the Mets look very good.