Riley Greene’s Strikeouts Aren’t a Dealbreaker

When Riley Greene debuted in 2022, he had a tiny little bit of a strikeout downside. His total line – .253/.321/.362 in cavernous Comerica Park – was roughly league common, however it could have been higher than that if he had struck out lower than 28.7% of the time. Over the next two years, he reined that challenge in some: 27.4% in 2023 and 26.7% in 2024. He additionally acquired higher on the plate whereas doing so. And this 12 months, he’s off to a scorching begin, .291/.345/.530 with a career-best 145 wRC+. So he conquered the strikeout demons, proper? Incorrect. He’s putting out a ghastly 30.7% of the time. This requires additional clarification.

One of many basic paradoxes driving the way in which baseball seems immediately is that strikeouts don’t look like as unhealthy for hitters as one would possibly suppose. There’s basically no correlation between batter strikeout price and total batter manufacturing. You may crunch the numbers to confirm that – or you might simply contemplate Luis Arraez and Aaron Decide. However whereas we just about all know this by now – the Judges and Harpers and Ohtanis of the world crack just a few eggs whereas they’re depositing omelets over the outfield fences – it doesn’t really feel as true on the excessive excessive finish of the spectrum. In any case, Joey Gallo’s outlandish 38% strikeout price clearly held him again. However Gallo is the best instance, and discussing his strikeout woes doesn’t fairly show a complete lot. So let’s take a look at the ten hitters putting out most this 12 months:

Except for Greene, that’s not a formidable group. Stowers is the perfect of the bunch, however even together with him, the combination statistics are fairly poor. This isn’t some listing of overmatched hitters doing completely nothing proper, ether; there’s fearsome energy right here just about throughout the board. They’re simply putting out a lot that the general package deal doesn’t work. So why does Greene look so totally different from the remaining?

It begins, as MLB.com’s Jared Greenspan identified, with aggression. Greene spent his first years within the majors as a affected person hitter, chasing much less typically than common and taking just a few pitches within the zone as the value of his endurance. My favourite proxy for hitter aggression is how typically they swing at first pitches within the strike zone. The league as a complete swings at about 45% of such pitches. Greene was proper round there in his first three years within the massive leagues: 42.4%, 45.2%, 46.1%, respectively. Then he determined to cease letting these cookies go by. This 12 months, he’s swinging at 56% of first-pitch strikes.

The rationale for that is easy: These are good pitches to hit. From 2022 by 2024, Greene put up nice numbers when he made contact with a first-pitch strike. He batted .425 and slugged .770 on them, with underlying contact metrics to match. He’s doing much more harm this 12 months, .448 with a .966 slug. Extra importantly, although, he’s damaging these pitches extra often as a result of he’s swinging at them extra typically. These are usually the perfect pitches to hit all plate look; why not take a giant hack at them?

There’s a price to doing this. Greene can also be swinging extra typically at unhealthy first pitches; his 0-0 chase price is as much as 18.5% from roughly 12% in his profession earlier than the season started. That sounds unhealthy, however contemplate that he’s upped his in-zone swing price by 10 share factors. Due to this aggression, he’s not taking as many hittable pitches for strikes. Check out how typically he’s gotten forward, fallen behind, and put the ball in play over time:

As you’ll be able to see, this has been an awesome trade-off. He’s placing the ball in play extra often than ever and falling behind much less typically consequently. Aggression pays, notably early within the depend and notably for hitters as highly effective as Greene.

That smidgen of additional manufacturing in opposition to hittable pitches in early counts helps clarify a few of Greene’s boosted manufacturing on batted balls this 12 months – his .525 wOBACON and .504 xwOBACON are each profession highs (right here’s why I like these BACON stats). Need to mash the ball? Intention at simpler pitches.

That mentioned, Greene’s aggressive method to pitches within the zone has include some swing-and-miss draw back. Break the plate down into extra than simply “in or out” and you’ll see the trade-off extra clearly:

Naturally, Greene is swinging extra at all the things in his try to drive extra hittable pitches. That is smart; he didn’t merely wave a magic wand and begin swinging on the good ones extra with out adjusting his method to all pitches. He’s not hacking blindly at all the things off the plate, and even near that, however it makes loads of sense that he’s taking just a few extra ill-advised swings together with all the additional good ones.

Usually, you’d anticipate this to be a self-correcting loop. Greene will get extra aggressive, so pitchers depart the strike zone extra typically, which tilts Greene again towards selectivity as he will get forward within the depend extra typically and may select pitches to hunt. Early within the depend, pitchers are treating him about the identical as at all times – he’s highly effective, and they also attempt to nibble across the corners of the zone, accepting additional balls in alternate for avoiding meatballs. However with two strikes, notably in the event you exclude 3-2 counts, they’re not giving him a lot because the time of day. He sees strikes on a mere 35.3% of 0-2, 1-2, and 2-2 counts, one of many lowest marks in baseball.

That seems like a sensible adjustment by opposing pitchers. This man is highly effective and desires to swing, so why bail him out by giving him one thing to hit? So he faces a gentle weight loss plan of breaking balls within the dust, excessive fastballs, sinkers off the plate in, mainly all the things you’ll be able to consider. There’s an adjustment to be made right here, beginning aggressive and dialing it again with two strikes as an alternative of sustaining that aggression throughout. In 2024, he chased 30.3% of the time in these counts. This 12 months, he’s as much as 39.1%. That’s from “a lot lower than common” to “greater than common” in the event you’re conserving rating at house.

The tip results of this newfound aggression and pitchers’ avoidance of the zone is that Greene is putting out on 22.8% of the two-strike pitches he sees, the very best mark of his profession. He’s additionally attending to two-strike counts extra often because of his early-count swings. He’s fouling extra pitches off than ever earlier than, as effectively. That comes with the swing-hard-early territory; Greene will fortunately take some foul balls in alternate for all of the harm he’s doing when he retains the ball truthful.

So far as I can inform, Greene is like nobody else within the high-strikeout cohort. He’s not up there as a result of he’s a helpless hacker who can’t make contact. He has a great sense of the strike zone, one he’s displayed in a number of seasons. His swing is geared for energy, so he’ll at all times swing over his fair proportion of balls, however loads of hitters with energy swings nonetheless have good two-strike approaches. Greene simply hasn’t put collectively his new early-count plan – assault pitches within the zone and settle for just a few additional chases to do it – with a two-strike method. He’s chasing too typically, and as greatest as I can inform, it’s as a result of he’s swinging extra often than ever earlier than early within the depend. It’s robust to change psychological gears, notably whilst you’re studying a brand new method, and I feel Greene has fallen into that entice to this point.

All that is to say Greene is hardly doomed to strike out 30% of the time for the remainder of the 12 months. The truth is, I feel his early-count aggression will find yourself decreasing his strikeout price, not elevating it. He’s giving pitchers fewer simple choices by searching drivable pitches early. And in earlier seasons, he’s already demonstrated the power to tighten up and handle the zone late within the depend. He’s nonetheless simply 24 years previous and solely in his sixth 12 months {of professional} baseball (excluding the canceled 2020 minor league season). In contrast to a lot of the gamers who strike out as typically as he does, he appears to haven’t any deadly flaw that can preserve him in that group. It’s only a matter of creating all of the components of his ever-improving sport work collectively, and I positively wouldn’t wager in opposition to him fixing it in the end.

It’s a credit score to his unimaginable expertise that his horrid strikeout price hasn’t actually mattered to this point. I really like his new method this 12 months total. When you’ve got this degree of energy, letting early-count strikes go by is a cardinal sin. I feel he’ll work out modulate that as essential – when he will get behind and pitchers begin fishing for strikeouts, mainly. However in the event you’re in search of a testomony to Greene’s expertise, I can’t consider any higher one than his efficiency this 12 months. He’s putting out a really unconscionable quantity whereas he tries to alter the way in which he works on the plate, and but it doesn’t matter. He’s simply that highly effective, and regardless that he’s aggressive, he’s not flailing pointlessly at pitches out of the zone and blunting his outcomes on contact. The strikeouts will nearly actually come down. The brand new, early-count harm? That’s right here to remain.