On Monday evening in Los Angeles, Shohei Ohtani made his first main league begin for the Dodgers. For another starter signed earlier than the 2024 season, that will be a disastrous sentence to kind. Ohtani, in fact, grew to become the constitution member of the 50/50 membership, gained the Nationwide League MVP, after which helped his workforce win the World Collection. However he got here to the Dodgers to hit and pitch, not simply to play DH, and final evening marked a key step in that course of, his first recreation motion as he rehabs from a 2023 elbow surgical procedure.
I watched each pitch of Ohtani’s one-inning outing to compile a report. Clearly, these are the observations of an information analyst, not a scout. I’ve supplemented them with the Statcast and pitch mannequin knowledge generated in a single day. I’m not the kind to disregard the numbers, however realistically talking, 28 pitches isn’t sufficient for an actual pattern, so the info is extra supporting than main. I’ll begin with my first impressions, stroll by means of every of the 4 pitch varieties Ohtani threw, after which share some basic conclusions.
First Impression
Ohtani was giving rusty high-leverage reliever vibes to me proper from the beginning. He opened the sport sitting 98 mph and leaning fastball-heavy, with 9 of his first 10 pitches sinkers or four-seamers. He appeared dissatisfied along with his fastball command, yanking a number of to his glove aspect, and picked up his sweeper utilization thereafter. He ended up throwing extra sweepers than anything, although that’s partially as a result of he break up his fastballs into two varieties. He labored out of the stretch after the primary batter he confronted and displayed mechanics that, to my eye, had been the identical as his pre-injury supply. Nonetheless, he did not work out his command jitters, and his fastball wasn’t the one pitch that he stored pulling too far glove aspect. Check out the chart:
That mentioned, we are able to nonetheless glean some perception into his combine (even when a whole lot of his pitches ended up within the left-handed batter’s field) and see if Ohtani has modified something about his general recreation because the final time he pitched.
Sweeper
Depend: 10
Velo: 84-88 mph, topped out at 89
Common Motion: +6.1 inches horizontal, +2.9 inches vertical
Ohtani’s sweeper was his finest pitch in 2023 any manner you slice it, and for my cash, it appears no worse for the layoff, and perhaps even higher. It’s a real sweeper, with plus horizontal break. It’s too quickly to say something about Ohtani’s eventual arsenal with authority, however he’s added two to a few ticks to his sweeper since 2023 and hasn’t sacrificed a lot of its chunk in doing so. Manny Machado managed to get a bat on this one, however you may see each the velo and motion:
That’s the nice case, and PitchingBot agrees with my evaluation, giving Ohtani’s slider a 77 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Stuff+ was effusive as effectively, giving it a 143 (100 is common), greater than in any earlier full season of his profession. Uh, yeah, that’ll play. However whereas the highs had been very excessive, Ohtani’s sweeper location was inconsistent. He hung a number of, most notably middle-middle on the primary pitch to Machado. He yanked a pair too far to his glove-side, although he and Will Smith had been sensible about attempting these sweepers in counts the place bouncing one or sending it huge had been acceptable outcomes.
Command is a difficult factor to regain, and I didn’t count on to see it from Ohtani in his first begin again. His really feel for the pitch was higher than I anticipated, actually. The Padres made contact on 5 of their six swings, however three of these had been on poorly situated choices and the opposite two had been Machado taking lunging swings exterior the strike zone to place a bat on it.
4-Seam Fastball
Depend: 9
Velo: 98-99 mph, topped out at 100
Common Motion: -3.3 inches horizontal, +8.0 inches vertical
Ohtani’s four-seamer was piping sizzling final evening, sitting within the higher 90s and topping 100 when he reached again for further. Sadly, he had little or no command of it. The highest line is nice – two swinging strikes in 9 pitches! However, effectively, right here’s one in every of them:
I’m actually undecided what Luis Arraez was considering there, however “I’ll take this pitch if it’s a ball” definitely wasn’t a part of it. That four-seamer appeared like a whole lot of Ohtani’s misses with the pitch. He stayed on every little thing too lengthy, and solely managed to land two of his 9 four-seamers within the strike zone, with the opposite seven all off the sting in direction of the left-handed batter’s field. His lack of ability to identify the pitch clearly pissed off him, and he used it much less because the inning wore on.
Location shakiness apart, that’s a superb pitch. It has loads of life, and clearly the speed doesn’t harm. In pitch mannequin phrases, PitchingBot says it has 63 stuff however actually 20 location, and I’ve a tough time arguing with both of these. Stuff+ had it at 98 stuff (I disagree) and 68 location (certain). Command typically takes longer to return after rehab, and Ohtani’s rehab is unquestionably one of the vital difficult in historical past because of the truth that he’s additionally hitting at an elite stage whereas doing it. Lastly, right here’s a four-seamer within the zone so you may see the way it appears when it’s not at ankle peak:
Sinker
Depend: 8
Velo: 97-98 mph, topped out at 99, dropped to 95 late
Motion: -9.1 inches horizontal, +2.9 inches vertical
Ohtani added a sinker on the finish of 2022, however he didn’t use it a lot both that 12 months or the following. Time will inform how a lot he integrates it into his arsenal this 12 months, however within the early going, he had meaningfully higher really feel for it than his four-seam fastball. He opened the sport with a trio to Fernando Tatis Jr., however I can’t fairly observe the plan after that – he threw extra sinkers to the 2 lefties he confronted than the 2 subsequent righties, which isn’t normally the way you’d draw it up.
Whereas the utilization was complicated, I assumed the pitch appeared nice. In contrast to his four-seamer, he had an affordable really feel for location with the two-seam selection. I used to be jotting down how impressed I used to be with this pitch whilst Arraez turned it round for a single:
That’s why you don’t throw a sinker to a lefty; the form and Arraez’s pure need to swing mixed poorly for Ohtani there. However that’s one end result, in opposition to one distinctive hitter, and he was capable of maintain the ball low and across the plate, with way more contact than his four-seamer. It’s a heavy sinker, too, with three inches extra drop than its comparables.
Earlier than this 12 months, Ohtani’s sinker was nothing greater than an afterthought. He threw it 6% of the time in 2023, and that was his profession excessive, what with him having developed it in late 2022 and all. I’m undecided whether or not the utilization is manner up as a result of he’s nonetheless regaining confidence in his secondaries or whether or not it’s right here to remain, however fairly frankly, I believe it could be his finest fastball proper now. The fashions agree, with PicthingBot giving it a 70 and Stuff+ a 113, each elite numbers for a sinker. Mixing fastball varieties relying on rely and handedness is all the fashion, and Ohtani appears to have added to his capacity to take action throughout his rehab.
Splitter
Depend: 1
Velo: 91 mph
Motion: -7.8 inches horizontal, +1.0 inches vertical
Nothing to see right here, of us. Ohtani threw one splitter, in an 0-2 rely, and spiked it:
I’ve to say, that appeared fairly despite the fact that it didn’t draw a swing. A couple of inches greater on the preliminary trajectory, and Gavin Sheets would possibly nonetheless be pinwheeling from a swing. But in addition, sure, the ball bounced, and Ohtani gave a bit of sigh of annoyance after throwing it, for those who’re curious how he felt about it.
I’m hesitant to offer you my visible impressions of a pitch with only one to have a look at, significantly a splitter, which by its very nature has a wide-ranging motion profile. One factor I can say for sure is that Ohtani threw it 91 mph, however I can’t even inform you how notable that’s. His splitter velo vary in 2023 was 83-95; he’s all the time been able to dashing it up or slowing it down as acceptable.
I’ll be in search of both extra splitters or some cutters the following time Ohtani pitches, so we are able to get a greater concept of the state of his full vary of choices. However in a one-inning burst, in his first time again on a giant league mound in fairly some time, I believe his method was cheap: carry the pitches you belief most, perhaps throw in a splitter or two for those who get an ideal rely to go looking for a strikeout, however largely persist with your bread and butter. I gained’t hassle with the mannequin grades right here; once more, it was one pitch.
Common Conclusions
Ohtani appeared like a superb starter coming back from surgical procedure. Whether or not he was simply amped for the sport, reached again for a bit of further in a brief stint, or has added lasting velocity throughout the board is an open query, however I’d guess that it’s largely a combination of the primary two. He had visibly drained by the tip of the 28-pitch inning and guided the previous few sinkers in. As he works as much as longer begins, I count on his common pitch velocity will decline throughout the board, with the potential exception of his sweeper; I believe he’ll nonetheless hit triple digits along with his fastball, however sparingly.
Clearly, Ohtani struggled with really feel in his outing. The host of glove-side misses suggests to me that he’s nonetheless getting used to his new supply and new elbow at most effort. I don’t have arm angle knowledge but, however despite the fact that his movement appears similar to my eye, he’s releasing each pitch decrease this 12 months. Many pitchers drop their slot barely whereas they ramp up after UCL reconstruction, and whereas Ohtani had a barely totally different surgical procedure, it will hardly be shocking to see him comply with the identical pattern.
Ohtani appeared aggravated on the misses, however in any other case didn’t seem like laboring on the mound in any respect, one thing I all the time regulate when pitchers are adapting again to recreation velocity. He took an ungainly step off the mound when he thought he’d must cowl first on a grounder, however it didn’t seem to have an effect on him in any respect, and he vehemently declined the provide of a coach’s go to.
General, I assumed Ohtani appeared wonderful. Command is hard to get proper shortly; it takes a whole lot of time and a whole lot of pitches. Stuff is extra secure, extra predictive, and Ohtani definitely isn’t lacking stuff. His sweeper has chunk. His sinker, particularly, appeared superior to me. He hit 100 when he reached again for it and flashed good location every so often whilst he battled his command. One inning doesn’t show something, however outcomes apart, I assumed this was a superb, albeit rusty, outing.