The Manny Machado Revival | FanGraphs Baseball

Although the Padres have largely been treading water for the previous six weeks whereas utilizing a relatively makeshift rotation — a state of affairs not in contrast to that of the Dodgers, albeit with fewer ex-Rays (and possibly X-rays) — that description doesn’t lengthen to Manny Machado. The 32-year-old third baseman, who went 3-for-5 whereas driving in 5 runs throughout an 11-1 romp over the Dodgers on Tuesday, has been red-hot these days. Certainly, he’s placing collectively the most effective seasons of his 14-year profession whereas doing his greatest to maintain the NL West race a good one.

Admittedly, Machado didn’t face the Dodgers’ greatest pitching on Tuesday. The Padres’ NL West rivals are with out starters Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki, and Tony Gonsolin, the final of whom landed on the injured listing earlier this week as a result of discomfort in his surgically repaired elbow. On Tuesday, they used an opener, Lou Trivino, who retired Machado on a routine grounder within the first inning. In Machado’s subsequent three journeys to the plate, he confronted bulk man Matt Sauer, in opposition to whom he linked for RBI singles within the third (88 mph) and fifth (77.8 mph). Sauer, a thrice-optioned righty who was pressured to Put on One on behalf of a gassed workers — he gave up 13 hits and 9 runs in 4 2/3 innings — lastly retired Machado on a grounder within the sixth, however even that drove in a run to present the Padres a 7-0 lead.

Machado wasn’t completed. With the Dodgers resorting to utilizing utilityman Enrique Hernández within the blowout — he threw 2 1/3 innings, the third-longest position-player pitching stint of the Wild Card period — Machado pounced on a 47.8-mph eephus pitch within the seventh inning, hammering it at 105.8 mph to left subject for a two-run single to cap the Padres’ scoring:

Once more, Machado wasn’t precisely going through any Cy Younger hopefuls, however no matter who has been on mound these days, he’s had little hassle. After hitting a decent .279/.336/.423 (115 wRC+) in March and April, he’s batting a scorching .352/.415/.577 (182 wRC+) since Could 1, placing him in a digital tie with reigning NL MVP Shohei Ohtani for the fifth-highest mark within the majors:

Sadly for the Padres, Machado’s scorching streak has been offset by the struggles of Luis Arraez (.265/.300/.371, 90 wRC+), Xander Bogaerts (.238/.317/.302, 80 wRC+), and Fernando Tatis Jr. (.188/.287/.333, 79 wRC+) — to not point out a complete lot of part-time gamers — over that very same stretch. The group has by some means squeezed 4.35 runs per recreation out of a .238/.305/.364 (92 wRC+) slash line in that span, with a pitching workers that’s been lacking Michael King for the previous three weeks in addition to Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove for the entire season; these days, Randy Vásquez, Stephen Kolek, and Ryan Bergert have rounded out the unit behind Dylan Stop and Nick Pivetta. Thus the Padres have gone 19-18 since Could 1 after a 19-11 begin, mainly approximating a 20-18 stretch by the pitching-poor Dodgers. After dropping two out of three to Los Angeles within the rivals’ first assembly since final fall’s five-game Division Collection — the 11-1 rout was their solely win — San Diego is 2 video games again within the NL West race, 1 1/2 video games behind a banged-up San Francisco group that has issues of its personal.

General, Machado is hitting .320/.381/.510 with 10 homers, eight steals, and a 153 wRC+. If the season ended right now, all of these price stats besides the slugging share would characterize profession highs, with the batting common maybe probably the most stunning. He entered Wednesday hitting .325, second within the NL behind Freddie Freeman (.349) however slipped into third place behind Will Smith, whose 2-for-4 day pushed him to .324. Whereas Machado owns a .281 profession batting common, the one season by which he’s completed at .300 or higher was the pandemic-shortened 2020 marketing campaign. His full-season excessive is .298, set in 2022.

That season, chances are you’ll recall, was an excellent one for Machado, who completed because the runner-up within the NL MVP race whereas batting .298/.366/.531 (152 wRC+) with 32 homers, 7.1 fWAR (0.1 off his profession excessive) and 6.8 bWAR. Machado used that stellar displaying as leverage to decide out and improve his 10-year, $300-million contract by way of 2028 to an 11-year, $350 million one by way of 2033. He isn’t going to exploit extra tens of millions out of the Padres with this one, however his 2.7 fWAR places him in what’s mainly a five-way tie for sixth within the NL:

Machado’s efficiency thus far represents a powerful rebound from his 2023 and ’24 seasons, each of which have been strong (113 wRC+ and three.4 WAR within the former, 122 wRC+ and three.5 WAR within the latter) however fell wanting the ZiPS projections Dan Szymborski ran when the slugger re-signed with the Padres. “Let’s simply say that ZiPS isn’t overly enthusiastic in regards to the contract, valuing Machado’s future companies at $181 million over 11 years,” wrote Szymborski. I’m not right here to relitigate that deal — I used to be skeptical he may enhance upon his earlier one and much more skeptical that it made sense for the Padres — however I’m having fun with watching this bounce again. Machado is a polarizing participant who’s completed a lot to forged himself because the heel all through his profession; many have known as him soiled, although for what it’s price, Dustin Pedroia exonerated him for the takeout slide that turned the Crimson Sox second baseman’s profession. I’ve all the time loved Machado’s distinctive mixture of contact, energy, and protection, and the way in which he’s helped elevate the Padres-Dodgers rivalry into one of many recreation’s greatest.

What we’re seeing now from Machado is the results of his being again to full energy after years of elbow troubles. “It feels good to simply be considerably regular and be capable of get some good swings out and not likely be on the coaching room desk each single day,” he advised The Athletic‘s Dennis Lin not too long ago. Recall that on the finish of the 2023 season — a disappointing one for the Padres, who missed the playoffs in Juan Soto’s solely full season with the membership — Machado underwent surgical procedure to restore the extensor tendon in his proper elbow after battling tennis elbow for many of that nice 2022 and the lesser ’23. Restricted to DH responsibility over the ultimate month of the latter marketing campaign, he nonetheless completed sturdy, however he struggled on the outset of final yr whereas once more DHing. He didn’t play third base till April 26, the group’s twenty ninth recreation, and hit simply .241/.293/.361 (86 wRC+) by way of the tip of Could. He’s up there with the massive boys over the previous 12 months:

That gained’t win a batting title, nevertheless it’s simply one other means of confirming that what we’re seeing isn’t some fluke. Machado is again close to his peak kind, at the least on the offensive facet, hitting the ball as onerous as he has at any time prior to now half-decade:

Machado has shed some top-end energy, as evidenced by the reducing most exit velocities, however his hard-hit price, xSLG, and xwOBA are at Statcast-era highs, and each his barrel price and common exit velocity are almost there as effectively. His xwOBA is as excessive as it’s because of the mixture of that tough hitting, a lower-than-usual strikeout price (16%), and a higher-than-usual stroll price (9.3%). His anticipated stats, common exit velocity, and hard-hit price are all within the 92nd percentile or increased.

Past that, two issues stand out to those eyes: the frequency with which he’s squaring the ball up and the extent to which he’s spraying hits in every single place. We’ve received lower than two full years of bat-tracking knowledge unfold out over components of three seasons, and Machado’s present common bat pace of 74.8 mph isn’t fairly as quick as final yr (75.2) or the second half of 2023 (76.7, whew), nevertheless it’s nonetheless adequate for the 87th percentile. What’s spectacular is that his squared-up price has improved from the fortieth to the 52nd to the 72nd percentile in that span.

All of that is occurring whereas Machado is pulling the ball much less ceaselessly than at any level prior to now half-decade, on simply 34.8% of all batted balls. His pulled air price of 15.2% is an eyelash above final yr however over six factors down from his profession excessive (21.5%) in 2022; on his Statcast web page, the cell has turned from darkish pink to pale blue. His reverse subject manufacturing, however, is nearly as good because it’s been since earlier than the pandemic:

Except for his common exit velo (seventh) and hard-hit price (thirteenth), none of Machado’s 2025 oppo stats are that near main league leads, however these two classes are profession bests, and as you possibly can see, they’re contributing to his spectacular total numbers. His xSLG going oppo is increased than most of his profession xSLGs total. As hitting coach Victor Rodriguez advised Lin, “He is aware of when he’s good is when he’s a gap-to-gap, line-drive man.”

As for his protection, Machado stays visually spectacular together with his dives, slides, and lengthy throws whereas crossing over into foul territory, however the metrics do counsel he’s in decline. His -3 FRV is his lowest mark since 2019, 12 runs beneath his whole simply two years in the past. Nonetheless, notably to this aficionado of third base defensive highlights, he’s entertaining as hell:

Machado hit his 350th profession dwelling run on June 5, as a part of a seven-homers-in-16-games tear. He’s now simply 19 hits away from 2,000, and three,000 isn’t out of the query. In keeping with Szymborski, he’s received a 31% probability of reaching the latter milestone, which is decrease than that of Freeman (61% as of a couple of weeks in the past) or Jose Altuve (41%). However as a result of he’s about two years youthful than the latter, he’s received a greater probability of reaching 3,200 hits (16% vs. 11%), a mark that solely 15 of the earlier 33 3,000-hit membership members have reached. Freeman, by comparability, has odds of round 50% for that increased mark. Even when Machado falls wanting 3,000 hits, he’s already at 60.4 profession bWAR, 42.6 peak bWAR, and 51.5 JAWS, the final of which is nice for 18th amongst third basemen. He’s at 2.8 bWAR this yr, and something above 4.1 will push that peak rating increased. Plugging in his rest-of-season ZiPS (2.6), for instance, would take him to 63.0/43.9/53.5, previous upcoming Corridor of Fame inductee Dick Allen, in addition to Sal Bando and Buddy Bell, into fifteenth in JAWS.

It’s all spectacular stuff. Within the wake of his previous two seasons, it’s not onerous to think about Machado persevering with his downward development, nonetheless ranking as an above-average common however shedding a little bit of worth every year. Which will but be his destiny, however proper now, watching star-level Manny is loads of enjoyable.