Alejandro Kirk’s Slugging Conundrum | FanGraphs Baseball

One thing bizarre is occurring with Alejandro Kirk. It’s not that he’s having an ideal season. That’s not bizarre in any respect. Kirk ranks third amongst catchers with 2.4 WAR and twenty first amongst all gamers. He’s additionally hitting a lot better than he has up to now two seasons, however that’s not essentially bizarre both. After combining for a wRC+ of 95 in 2023 and 2024, Kirk has a 129 wRC+ this season, the identical as he ran in 2022, when he was an All-Star and gained the Silver Slugger. He’s at all times been nice with the glove, and it now appears to be like like his bat is again. His .370 xwOBA and 119 DRC+ are additionally his greatest since 2022.

What’s bizarre is that he’s hitting the ball tougher – a lot, a lot tougher – however he’s not essentially hitting for extra energy. Let me present you what I imply with a desk. Under are a bunch of contact-quality metrics for the 5 full seasons of Kirk’s profession. On the far proper is his remoted energy. Often, contact high quality and energy are just about synonymous. If you happen to hit the ball exhausting, you’re going to finish up with doubles, triples, and homers. Often.

This season, Kirk is operating the best common exit velocity, ninetieth percentile exit velocity, hard-hit fee, and slugging proportion of his total profession, and never by just a little bit. These are enormous jumps. Everybody’s favourite 5’8” catcher is within the 97th percentile in hard-hit fee! But his ISO is merely the third better of his profession, a mere 9 factors above final season’s mark. I’m interested in why Kirk is hitting the ball a lot tougher abruptly, and I’m interested in why it’s not leading to an enormous energy spike.

Let’s begin with who Kirk is as a hitter, as a result of he’s awfully enjoyable. Over the previous three seasons, his contact and strikeout charges have by no means dropped beneath the 92nd percentile. He’s a superb contact hitter who places up stable exit velocities, takes his walks, and by no means strikes out. This season, nonetheless, Kirk appears to be like fairly totally different. We all know he’s hitting the ball tougher, and that’s no accident. As many have famous, he’s swinging a lot tougher too. His common bat pace has gone from 70.1 mph in 2024 to 72.3 mph this season, and that’s true any manner you slice it. You possibly can have a look at Kirk’s bat-speed splits when it comes to contact high quality, pitch sorts, or places; regardless of the scenario, he’s at all times swinging tougher this season.

As you may count on from a participant who’s swinging a lot tougher, he’s additionally simply extra aggressive usually, ensuing within the highest swing fee of his total profession and an elevated whiff fee. However that elevated whiff fee continues to be solely 19.3%, which places him within the 81st percentile and implies that if he swings 5 instances, he’s in all probability solely lacking as soon as. That aggression additionally means his referred to as strike fee has fallen to a profession low, and he’s additionally seeing extra pitches within the zone this season. Put it collectively, and even with the elevated aggression, Kirk is tougher than ever to strike out. Not solely is he not putting out a lot, however he’s additionally batting a league-best .346 with two strikes. (Much more curiously, his 71.6-mph bat pace with two strikes signifies he’s not dialing again a lot; he’s simply hitting the ball very well.)

In consequence, Kirk is posting the bottom stroll and strikeout charges since his rookie season, and he’s placing the ball in play in a career-high 83.5% of his plate appearances. His stroll fee is 3.2 proportion factors beneath his profession fee, and his strikeout proportion is 1.4 factors beneath his profession mark. Meaning 1.8% of the time, Kirk is buying and selling a stroll for a ball in play. In isolation, that’s not an ideal trade-off. Walks have a .694 wOBA, and even Aaron Decide doesn’t get that a lot manufacturing when he places the ball in play (though at .685, he’s insanely shut; we’ll speak about that tomorrow). However the trade-off has labored out simply fantastic for Kirk, as a result of all that energy has allowed him to be higher than ever within the bigger portion of the time that he does put the ball in play. His .369 wOBACON and .390 xwOBACON are the most effective of his profession.

Understanding all that, let’s get again to our important query. Kirk has been higher than ever when he places the ball in play, with a .341 BABIP that’s miles above his .286 profession fee. His batting common is definitely 13 factors greater than his anticipated batting common, the most important differential of his profession, however his slugging proportion is 62 factors decrease than his anticipated slugging proportion, the most important differential of his profession within the different course. Why hasn’t that energy translated into further bases extra usually? I’m certain a part of it’s that Kirk is a gradual catcher who will get held to singles on balls that might be doubles for different gamers. However I don’t assume that’s the entire story, so I hauled within the traditional suspects. It’s not as a result of he’s not lifting the ball. In reality, he’s placing extra balls within the air than he has in any season since 2021. Similar with lifting the ball to the pull aspect. However check out the stats beneath, which present his efficiency on hard-hit fly balls and line drives.

This season, when Kirk hits the ball exhausting and within the air, he’s underperforming his xwOBA by 175 factors. That’s nowhere close to the most important hole within the league, however it does put Kirk third-to-last in baseball in wOBA on hard-hit air balls. These are probably the most useful balls a hitter can hit, however Kirk isn’t being rewarded for them as we’d count on, despite the fact that he’s pulling them extra usually than ever.

We’re about to place all of the puzzle items collectively right here, and the trick is that hard-hit balls isn’t sufficient. The cutoff for hard-hit balls is 95 mph, but when we enhance our threshold to 100 mph, we zero in on balls which can be likeliest to go for dwelling runs. This season, when Kirk hits a ball within the air over 100 mph, he hits it to middle discipline 56.3% of the time. Over the earlier 4 seasons, that quantity was 38.7%. That’s a giant bounce. When he hits the ball hardest, Kirk is hitting it to the massive a part of the ballpark, the place it’s most certainly to finish up as an out. Under you possibly can see the warmth maps of Kirk’s hard-hit balls over the previous 4 seasons. This yr, there’s much more pink proper up the center. There’s virtually none within the corners, the place Kirk has historically hit all his dwelling runs, and there’s virtually none within the gaps.

This might simply be a little bit of randomness. We’re solely a 3rd of the way in which by way of the season, and Kirk is smashing offspeed stuff specifically. Often, gamers pull offspeed stuff after they hit it actually exhausting, as a result of its slower velocity means their bat meets it farther out in entrance. This season, the league has a 54% pull fee on hard-hit offspeed pitches. Perhaps this can all stability out. Nevertheless, this may be a perform of Kirk’s extra aggressive strategy.

As you possibly can see from the spray charts above, when he hit the ball exhausting in earlier seasons, he was very more likely to go to the alternative discipline. Like many contact gurus, his swing was geared to fulfill the ball deep and drive it the opposite manner. Now, he’s opened his stance by a couple of levels. He’s swinging tougher and assembly the ball farther out in entrance; his common intercept level is 1.7 inches farther forward of him than it was during the last two seasons. That’s not sufficient to begin pulling the ball on a regular basis, however it could possibly be sufficient to show a few of that opposite-field contact into straightaway contact. Kirk is a hybrid participant now, swinging exhausting and hitting the ball exhausting, however nonetheless making quite a lot of contact and squaring the ball up tougher than ever. His batted balls appear to be caught in between as effectively. He’s nonetheless hitting higher than he has in years, so it’s not as if this can be a drawback that must be mounted. However it may imply Kirk’s energy output continues to lag behind his precise energy.