Lawrence Butler does numerous issues nicely, however he can not hit a excessive fastball. Getting into play on June 2, Butler had only one profession barrel towards an elevated fastball: A deep fly out off an 87.5 mph Trevor Williams “heater” within the canine days of 2023. In 2025, he’s whiffing on over half his swings at excessive heaters, per the Baseball Savant-defined shadow zones on the high fringe of the strike zone. (That’s assault zones 11, 12, and 13 for the Savant search heads.)
A lot of the hitters with excessive whiff charges on top-rail four-seamers have steep swing planes. (Aaron Decide and Luis Robert Jr. are two notable examples.) Not Butler: His 31 diploma swing tilt is definitely a bit flatter than the main league common. Butler’s main concern is timing — his common assault route on these pitches is oriented 18 levels towards the other subject; his zero diploma assault angle is completely flat. Regardless of the cause, it’s a transparent gap, and sure pitchers are primed to use it.
Joe Ryan is one such pitcher. Regardless of its mediocre velocity, Ryan’s fastball dominates on the high of the zone due to its vertical strategy angle, which is the flattest amongst all main beginning pitchers. From a low slot (24 diploma arm angle) and a vertical launch level simply 4.8 ft off the bottom, Ryan manages to generate a little bit of backspin on the pitch. Almost all hitters — not simply Butler — wrestle to punish fastballs with tremendous flat strategy angles, notably when pitchers like Ryan hit their spots.
In 2024, Ryan generated a 42.1% whiff charge whereas holding hitters to a .141 xwOBA when he situated his fastball on the highest rail. And when Ryan reared again and threw his fastball at or above 95 mph, hitters actually couldn’t contact it. He threw 48 such pitches final season; the whiff charge on them was 58.1%, and the three balls in play have been popups with an anticipated batting common of .000. It has been extra of the identical this season; Ryan peppers the highest rail and hitters have been largely helpless, particularly when he reaches again for his high velocity.
To summarize: Butler can’t hit elevated fastballs; Ryan throws a near-unhittable elevated fastball. And but. And but! On Tuesday night, Ryan threw Butler a 96 mph heater completely situated on the highest rail, and Butler launched it over the middle subject wall:
That pitch had a -2.68 diploma VAA, the flattest pitch that any hitter has homered on this yr.
How did this occur? There’s a broadcast cliché that goes one thing like: A house run isn’t hit, it’s pitched. To learn the way Ryan pitched this house run, let’s go on a journey by way of the dozen pitches Butler noticed Tuesday night in West Sacramento.
Plate Look No. 1: Butler Laces a Double
This one ended rapidly. Ryan’s first pitch of the night time was a 94 mph four-seamer, piped middle-middle. These type of get-me-over fastballs on the primary pitch of the sport (FPOTG) are shockingly widespread, as Sam Miller just lately discovered. A full 94% — 94%! — of all first pitches of the sport are both four-seam fastballs or sinkers. Leadoff hitters can fairly count on to see a heater, particularly if they’re sensible sufficient to subscribe to Sam’s Substack:
Butler pulverized this FPOTG fastball, crushing it 113 mph and lacking a house run by a number of ft. (Actually, that will have been a house run in 9 of 30 parks.) This swing, I feel, instilled a deep worry in Ryan’s coronary heart, informing his tentative strategy in subsequent encounters.
Plate Look No. 2: Butler Works a Stroll
To right-handed hitters, Ryan throws 5 pitches. Along with his typical heavy four-seam utilization, he’ll use his sweeper (18% utilization) as an out pitch, and blend in his sinker, slider and splitter in roughly equal measure. Towards lefties, the pitch combine isn’t as balanced. His four-seam utilization is 5 proportion factors increased, at 58%; he throws the splitter 22% of the time. He’ll often toss an early-count backdoor sweeper (11% utilization to lefties) to steal a known as strike, however largely, Ryan assaults lefties with the four-seamer up/splitter down mixture. The extra restricted nature of his assault partially explains his aggressive handedness splits this season: Ryan’s 19.4% strikeout charge towards lefties is almost half his charge towards righties (36.4%).
Accordingly, Ryan threw solely four-seamers and splitters to Butler in every of their three battles. Cognizant of Butler’s first-pitch aggression of their first encounter, Ryan went with the splitter on 0-0. Sadly, he yanked it. It seemed like a ball out of the hand, and Butler didn’t take into account swinging at any level. Similar with the splitter on 1-0 — Ryan doubled up on the offspeed, and as soon as once more, the execution was missing:
Down 2-0, Ryan tried to crowd Butler up and in with a heater, however missed a hair inside. At 3-0, the plate look was principally completed — after touchdown a fastball for a known as strike, Ryan yanked a heater inside on 3-1, and Butler had the free base.
Plate Look No. 3: Butler Homers
Ryan shouldn’t have even been on this scenario. With two outs within the inning, he received to 2 strikes on Denzel Clarke and nailed the nook with an inch-perfect sweeper. This wasn’t one in all these conditions the place the pitcher throws a pitch that technically hits the strike zone, however he’s missed his goal by a lot that the catcher’s dramatic glove motion fools the umpire; Ryan nailed his goal, Christian Vázquez barely moved his mitt, and the umpire robbed him blind.
Clarke singled on the following pitch, extending the inning. So Ryan might be forgiven for pitching with some frustration. However on the primary pitch to Butler of their third encounter, he stayed disciplined, throwing one more first-pitch splitter, pondering again to that first plate look and seeking to prey on Butler’s aggression:
If Ryan thought he was in hassle after Butler’s first-inning barrel, he should have recognized he was in it deep after seeing Butler’s response to this splitter. This one did precisely what Ryan wished, trying like a strike for many of its flight path earlier than dipping out of the strike zone. Admit it — should you’re Butler on this scenario, you’re in all probability swinging:
However that’s not what Butler did. He tracked all of it the best way, spitting on it with ease.
At 1-0, runners on the corners, and Jacob Wilson on deck, Ryan knew he wanted to land one within the zone. He gamely challenged Butler with the heater, and the situation was shut sufficient to the within edge to remain off Butler’s barrel. He swung late, fouling it off and night the depend at 1-1:
After one more yanked splitter introduced the depend to 2-1, Ryan had painted himself right into a nook. Thus far within the recreation, he’d thrown 4 splitters to Butler. Three have been uncompetitive; the fourth Butler tracked the entire means. He wanted a strike. He went again to the splitter, and received the decision, however nearly definitely not in the best way he meant:
Vázquez did have the goal arrange there, however that tends to be Vázquez’s normal goal on these splitters, seemingly as a result of if Ryan goals entrance hip, it can hit its meant goal just under the zone. Right here, it simply type of floats; Butler, shocked, took it for a strike. It nipped the nook, bringing the depend to 2-2.
After throwing 5 splitters to Butler, all of which (I’d argue) failed to a point, it felt prefer it needed to be heaters from right here on out. Actually Ryan knew from the scouting report that, given this opportunity to punch out Butler, the excessive heater could be an ideal weapon, calibrated to use Butler’s gap on the high of the zone:
Ryan’s 2-2 execution was only a fraction off. The speed was plus, topping that magic 95 mph quantity the place hitters had by no means — not as soon as — punished Ryan with a barrel. Butler laid off, bringing the depend full.
With contact king Jacob Wilson prepared to interrupt open a bases loaded egg within the occasion of a stroll, the splitter all however dominated out, and Butler’s tendencies hanging over the plate look, there was just one choice left for Ryan. To his credit score, he executed to perfection — 95.8 mph, his sixth-firmest fastball of the season, proper to the highest rail, even working in on Butler’s palms.
After all, Butler knew the scouting report, too. Usually on these excessive fastballs, Butler acknowledges the pitch too late; if he manages to get his palms in place to assault the pitch, it tends to be a innocent fly ball to the left fielder. You’ll be able to see his frustration together with his strategy to an analogous pitch from Bryan Woo:
Butler wasn’t late this time. He attacked the fastball out in entrance, catching it two ft from the middle of his physique:
It’s unimaginable anybody was capable of homer off this pitch. The truth that it was Lawrence Butler — a person who had by no means as soon as barreled up a excessive fastball throughout his complete profession, besides off Trevor Williams, which, let’s be trustworthy, doesn’t actually matter — makes this a real unicorn occasion. I don’t know if I can totally ship on the headline — there have been practically 2,000 homers this season, and I can’t say I’ve seen each single one in all them. However I’d be shocked if there’s been a extra unlikely house run this season. All it took was a pitcher painted right into a nook, and a hitter who made it his mission to not blow his likelihood.