FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: June 7, 2025

Completely satisfied Saturday, everybody, and welcome to the primary version of the FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag! We’ve received lots to cowl at the moment, together with repair the Braves, how the Orioles would possibly fare in the event that they promote on the deadline, probably the most enjoyable performs to guide off video games, and a lot extra.

However earlier than we get there, I’d prefer to remind all of you that whereas anybody can submit a query, this mailbag is unique to FanGraphs Members. Should you aren’t but a Member and want to hold studying, you’ll be able to join a Membership right here. It’s one of the best ways to each expertise the positioning and help our workers, and it comes with a bunch of different nice advantages. Additionally, in the event you’d prefer to ask a query for subsequent week’s mailbag, ship me an e mail at mailbag@fangraphs.com.

OK, that’s sufficient housekeeping. Let’s get to the primary query, which involves us from one in all our worldwide readers!

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I’m simply questioning if it’s bizarre that the Twins have had two seasons in a row with successful streaks equal to or better than 12 video games after a completely rubbish begin. We didn’t also have a magic piece of preserved meat this 12 months. Can we learn into these tea leaves in any respect? Does God exist and, assuming they do exist, what has Minnesota baseball ever executed to them? — Incomprehensibly Irrational in Eire

After performing some Stathead analysis, plainly you may not be “Incomprehensibly Irrational” in spite of everything, since you’re onto one thing right here. The Twins are the second workforce within the Divisional Period to have successful streaks of 12 or extra video games in back-to-back seasons. Cleveland gained 14 straight video games in 2016, from June 17 via July 1; the subsequent 12 months, from August 24 via September 14, Cleveland ripped off 22 straight wins, the longest single-season successful streak since a minimum of 1901, which is way back to Stathead’s analysis goes. These Cleveland groups have been each actually good, although. The 2016 membership went to the World Collection, and was 35-30 getting into play on June 17; the 2017 workforce gained 102 video games, most within the American League, and was 69-56 getting into play on August 24.

The closest comparability I may discover to those Twins are the Chicago Cubs in 1927 and 1928. Chicago gained 12 straight video games in 1927, however that streak started on June 5 — later than the 2 Minnesota streaks. These Cubs began gradual, too, although 4-7 is just not as tough a begin because the Twins of the final two years, who have been six video games under .500 when their successful streak started final season and as many as eight video games under .500 this 12 months. Additionally, by the point the 1927 Cubs started their successful streak, they have been three video games above .500, at 22-19. The following 12 months, the Cubs had a 13-game successful streak, starting on Might 5, after they have been three video games under .500. They completed the season 91-63, good for third within the Nationwide League.

So, all that is to say the Twins are the one workforce ever to start successful streaks of 12 video games or extra earlier than the beginning of June in back-to-back seasons, and in the event you lengthen the timeframe to the primary week of June to additionally embody the 1927-28 Cubs, the Twins are nonetheless the one workforce to win a minimum of 12 video games in consecutive seasons after being greater than three video games under .500 in annually. Positive, that’s a particular subset with lots of qualifiers, however the Twins are a bizarre workforce! Late final August, as a part of the cross-country highway journey that I wrote about for FanGraphs, I ended and noticed a Twins recreation at Goal Subject. Regardless of their place within the standings — they have been 72-60 and held the third Wild Card spot — they regarded utterly lifeless. Their outfield play was sloppy; their plate appearances have been uninspired. Watching them in opposition to the Braves, one other disappointing workforce, I may really feel Minnesota’s pending collapse. Hopefully, for each you and my grandma, who’s a die-hard Twins fan from Brainerd, Minnesota, the 2025 Twins gained’t endure the identical destiny down the stretch as final 12 months’s membership did. Contemplating their rotation has probably the most WAR within the majors and Byron Buxton is (knock on wooden) wholesome and performing effectively, I feel there’s a reasonably good likelihood that they are going to be simply positive.

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What’s the most enjoyable play to guide off a recreation? – Ben Lederman

Such a pleasant query, Ben! I instantly considered an inside-the-park dwelling run, and I imply a clear one, with none errors that might put the “little league dwelling run” asterisk on it. Give me Oneil Cruz at Coors Subject, rocketing a line drive into the right-center hole in a recreation when the Rockies are giving Brenton Doyle the time without work. Cruz blasts the ball so laborious that it caroms off the wall at a bizarre angle, and due to the surprising route of the ricochet, it takes backup middle fielder Mickey Moniak a bit extra time to choose it up. Cruz is rounding third when Moniak unleashes an ideal throw to cut-off man Ezequiel Tovar, who fires an almost flawless one-hopper dwelling. In a single movement, catcher Hunter Goodman snags it off the bounce, drops to his knee, and swipes his mitt to his left. Concurrently, in an try to keep away from the tag, the 6-foot-7 Cruz leaps head first towards the realm the place Goodman had been squatting earlier than the pitch and extends his left hand to the purpose of the plate. It’s bang-bang. The umpire indicators secure!

I additionally requested a few of my FanGraphs colleagues what they thought. Right here’s what they needed to say:

Davy Andrews: I’d argue for a loopy wild pitch, one which hits approach up excessive on the web or sails approach behind the batter. It actually makes you surprise what’s going to occur subsequent, and whether or not the sport goes to get bizarre instantly.

Ben Clemens: I’m a defense-first man, so I wish to see this: Leadoff hitter hits a ball within the hole and will get thrown out making an attempt to stretch it to a double.

James Fegan: A brawl to guide off a recreation actually places you on look ahead to the subsequent 9 innings.

Jay Jaffe: I’ll go along with a bit league dwelling run.

Esteban Rivera: I all the time love a protracted at-bat to start out a recreation, like a minimum of 10 pitches.

Leo Morgenstern: I’m going easy. I feel it’s only a no-doubter, first-pitch dwelling run.

Kiri Oler: I do know it’s not technically a “play,” however I like a pleasant bee delay to start out a recreation.

Davy Andrews: Yeah, I’d like to vary mine to that one.

Kiri Oler: I simply suppose we are able to all use a pleasant reminder that as a lot as we would prefer to suppose we’re in management, Mom Nature nonetheless runs issues round right here.

Jake Mailhot: A house run (little league or customary fare) might be the correct reply, however I’ll argue for a three-pitch strikeout with three whiffs. Instantly places you on discover that the pitcher is feeling it at the moment, and one thing is perhaps cooking.

Lucas Kelly: Bunt single.

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As a Braves fan, my query is concerning the Braves offense – particularly, how do you repair it? With so many lineup regulars locked into multi-year contracts, and nothing of word within the minors, is there something even to be executed besides wait it out? The Braves fired their third base coach and introduced again Fredi González, which looks as if the type of transfer that was solely made as a result of Alex Anthopoulos has an excessive amount of respect for Brian Snitker to fireplace him midseason. I’m afraid that what we’ve seen from the Braves in 2024 and 2025 is nearer to what they really are, versus the great 2023. Ought to I’ve any purpose for optimism that they may rebound? — Matt W., Nashville

The Braves are in a troublesome place in the event that they wish to repair their offense. They don’t have lots of prepared assist in the minors, as you word, and don’t seem to have lots of surplus expertise to commerce, however one place the place they may afford to make a transfer is at catcher… the place they did simply get assist from the minors and created a surplus. With prime prospect Drake Baldwin breaking camp with the workforce and thriving in tandem with Sean Murphy, the Braves have an enviable pair of backstops, however that could be a luxurious they should forgo to fill different wants. They might promote excessive on Murphy, who has rebounded from a tough 2024 to hit for a 123 wRC+ and is signed via 2028. Good catching is all the time briefly provide, and the Braves do have James McCann, a reliable if unspectacular backup, stashed at Triple-A Gwinnett. Positive, it could be a bummer to commerce a productive hitter away from an offense that wants assist, however with Marcell Ozuna parked at DH, both Baldwin or Murphy is sitting on most days.

Moreover, the Braves do have just a few below-market contracts, which provides them some room to maneuver; they will shake issues up in the event that they wish to. Ozzie Albies is making $7 million this 12 months with choices on the similar value for every of the subsequent two. A workforce that’s extra dedicated to successful than bean-counting may simply eat his remaining dedication or promote low and commerce for a greater second baseman — not that it may be simply executed with out weakening another a part of the roster or system. Michael Harris II, who’s signed via 2030, has been horrible on the plate, however velocity and protection give his worth a ground, making him a buy-low risk for a workforce prepared to produce extra quick assist in return.

Past that, there’s purpose to attend — and even be optimistic. Jurickson Profar might be eligible to return from his 80-game PED suspension on June 29. That ought to assist in left discipline, the place Alex Verdugo and pals have mixed for -1.0 WAR. It’s additionally not unreasonable to hope for some constructive regression from Matt Olson and Austin Riley, each of whom have scalded the ball however are effectively wanting their anticipated numbers. Ronald Acuña Jr. has hit effectively since coming again, and whereas it hasn’t coincided with a team-wide offensive outburst but, the chances of 1 are actually higher with him within the lineup. — Jay Jaffe

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Quite a lot of readers are most likely well-versed on the 20-80 scouting scale, however are you able to give us extra context on what that interprets to on the main league stage? It’d be fascinating to listen to some examples of fifty/60/70 shortstops, who has a 30 hit instrument, who has 70 energy, and many others. — Satya

I feel there are helpful fashionable purposes for the standard scouting scale. It’s a concise strategy to paint a reasonably detailed image of a participant’s ability set. This kind of scale (the place 50 is common and every integer of 10 represents a normal deviation from the typical) was constructed to assist describe distributions throughout any kind of inhabitants, like the dimensions and shade variation in carrots, or the charges of visitors accidents at completely different instances of day, or, in our case, the distribution of expertise throughout high-level novice and professional baseball.

We’ve a lot extra knowledge to contemplate now then we did when this scale was initially conceived as a possible technique of speaking scouting data throughout a division of individuals with out computer systems. Listed below are a few of the statistical baselines and distributions that I take advantage of as a reference when interacting with in-kind minor league knowledge for place gamers — we are able to do pitchers one other time. I’m usually capable of pull this data from FanGraphs; there’s typically an enormous league equal to no matter minor league knowledge I’ve gotten my fingers on that’s accessible utilizing our leaderboards and customized studies.

Listed below are the league-wide averages throughout the final 10 years for most of the statistical classes I feel are significant when assessing gamers. The upward pattern in a few of the energy metrics is a reminder that these scales shift and alter. You may as well play with the person positions to get an concept of simply how excessive the bar is at first base in comparison with catcher or middle discipline.

Let’s begin with some metrics that assist measure a participant’s hit instrument:

Listed below are some examples by place, utilizing full-season 2024 numbers:

It is a crude evaluation. Notice that there are many hitters towards the backside of the contact charge leaderboard who’ve excessive batting averages. These guys are crushing the baseball after they make contact and netting extra hits per ball in play; a hitter’s energy and energy additionally affect the way in which their hit instrument really performs. These metrics are extra indications of pure barrel really feel, and I feel that’s supported by the above record of names.

Subsequent let’s have a look at uncooked energy:

The league-wide common has been steadily creeping up over the past 10 years or so at each place however first base. Listed below are position-by-position deltas for hard-hit charge over the past 10 years:

Keep in mind these deltas are in share factors, not percentages. For shortstops, this can be a 33% improve on balls put in play at 95 mph or extra since 2015. Listed below are the gamers with prime marks in these statistical classes:

There are not any actual surprises right here. You’ll be able to play with the leaderboards throughout positions, handedness, age, or varied home windows of time and be taught extra. As soon as you realize the large league common and the usual deviation, you’ll be able to principally ballpark everybody’s uncooked energy as you surf round. Once more, it’s crude, nevertheless it’s a bit of the puzzle for any prospect.

For velocity, Statcast’s dash velocity is an effective way of measuring a runner’s prime velocity. It’s supplying you with toes/second within the runner’s quickest one-second window. Base-to-base instances (mostly home-to-first instances) offer you a bit higher concept of a runner’s velocity over an extended distance. You get some mixture of top-end velocity and acceleration within the home-to-first instances, although watch out for the jailbreak-style hitters whose instances are higher than their pure velocity. House-to-first instances are most frequently what’s producing the velocity grades you see in scouting studies. The gamers with 30 feet-per-second dash speeds and home-to-first instances hovering round 4.10 seconds are who you’ll be able to safely name 80-grade runners. Most of these guys will run 4 flat or under on their finest bolts.

As for protection and throwing, that’s one thing I gauge visually. I typically have a look at Clay Davenport’s web site and scope out the actually massive numbers in both route as a flag that I must assess a participant’s protection, both via tape research or by speaking with scouts. Right here is one completely subjective instance of defenders at every grade and place (please excuse my identify abbreviations):

— Eric Longenhagen
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Assuming they’re wholesome on the commerce deadline (not a given in the intervening time), what could be a good return for every of Cedric Mullins and Ryan O’Hearn? Can the Orioles anticipate/hope to get Prime 100 pitchers for them? – Ben from Boston, FG Member since 2021

If O’Hearn and Mullins are each wholesome come July and their efficiency hasn’t disappeared, I can think about the O’s doing effectively in short-term returns. A Prime 100 pitching prospect is a reasonably massive ask, since you’re solely buying and selling two months with out an additional 12 months because the kicker, and round 100, you’re at names like Carson Whisenhunt or Tink Therefore. It’s not utterly exterior the realm of risk, in fact, as a result of proper now there don’t seem like lots of sellers with expertise to focus on, as groups just like the White Sox and Rockies have a reasonably empty cabinet. Relatively than specializing in one explicit pitching prospect, the Orioles would possibly use such a commerce to as a substitute decide up just a few lower-ranked pitchers who’ve some type of believable upside, and see how issues shake out. If the O’s are nonetheless struggling to crack .500 in late July, and Mullins and O’Hearn stay on the roster and unsigned to extensions, it could most likely be malpractice if they begin August in orange and black. — Dan Syzmborski

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This query is for any of the weblog writers, however I had Michael Rosen in thoughts: How typically do you end up 5-10 hours into researching an article after which attain a null speculation? Do you attempt to publish these anyway in another format? This additionally doubles as a query about your course of for choosing analysis subjects after which pursuing them: Do you do them separately? A number of irons within the hearth? How (if in any respect) do you collaborate with the opposite writers on workers? — Kevin Li

I attempt to keep away from extreme dead-end analysis as a lot as potential by doing a bunch of labor on the entrance finish. If I discover one thing that appears promising, I’ll pitch the story and begin writing in earnest, however for each thread that’s value pulling on, there are a bunch extra the place I write, like, 10 traces of code and notice I’m working towards a lifeless finish. And the opposite writers have been tremendous useful once I’ve received a spot in my data of some particular space of research, like hitting mechanics. I feel I’ve despatched over half the workers a Slack message in some unspecified time in the future asking for assistance on one query or one other. — Michael Rosen