I owe Pink Sox catcher Carlos Narváez an apology. In my preseason write-up of Boston’s backstops, I referred to as him “organizational depth.” I lumped him in with Blake Sabol and Seby Zavala because the uninspiring backup catcher choices for the group with the worst projected WAR on the place within the American League. That was in March. Now it’s June, and the rookie is slashing .288/.356/.456 with 5 house runs and a 126 wRC+ by 47 video games. Due to sturdy framing, blocking, and throwing expertise, he has earned himself 6 DRS and a +6 FRV. The one catcher who has him beat in each metrics is defensive wizard Patrick Bailey. By WAR, Narváez is without doubt one of the top-30 place gamers within the sport. Amongst catchers, he ranks fifth, and when you solely contemplate WAR accrued as a catcher, he ranks second. If he retains this up for a couple of extra weeks, he’ll have a compelling case to be Cal Raleigh’s backup on the All-Star Recreation this summer time.
Regardless what occurs from right here on out, Narváez has already been excess of simply depth for the Pink Sox. I used to be mistaken, and I’ll readily eat crow or humble pie, although I’d actually desire the pie. On the similar time, I can’t blame myself an excessive amount of for overlooking him. In spite of everything, it took greater than eight years from the day he signed with the Yankees as a world free agent for him to seem as something greater than an honorable point out on certainly one of our organizational high prospect lists. Even then, Eric Longenhagen ranked him thirty second within the Yankees system (35+ FV) getting into 2024, with the phrases “third catcher” closing out his write-up. In the meantime, Narváez didn’t seem on a Baseball America listing till this previous offseason, when the publication ranked him twenty ninth within the Pink Sox group. Neither Baseball Prospectus, nor The Athletic talked about him on their top-20 Pink Sox prospects lists this winter.
Whereas I might need been mistaken about who Narváez could be, I wasn’t mistaken about who he had been once I referred to as him “unknown” and “hardly… a high prospect.” Nonetheless, I used his popularity, or actually his lack of a popularity, to let myself off the hook from studying extra about him. Counting on popularity is usually a vital heuristic approach – if all of us needed to confirm all the pieces for ourselves, we’d by no means accomplish something – however that doesn’t imply it will possibly’t result in errors. With greater than 100 catchers to contemplate for the Place Energy Rankings, I wanted to search out methods to scale back my workload. So, I glossed over Narváez as a result of he didn’t have sufficient of a popularity to draw extra of my consideration.
Popularity generally is a highly effective factor. I went to see the film Friendship final week, and I used to be struck by all of the laughter within the theater. I wasn’t shocked that individuals had been laughing. It’s a comedy! What shocked me was when they had been laughing. Most of the time, the laughter began earlier than the jokes, to the purpose the place I typically couldn’t even hear the punchlines. The viewers was already laughing too loudly at star Tim Robinson’s mere presence on display. The clearest inform that I ended up in a theater stuffed with I Suppose You Ought to Depart superfans (and to be clear, I depend myself amongst them) was all of the laughter when Connor O’Malley appeared for a short cameo. Perhaps Robinson has crossed over from area of interest comic to comedy film actor, however O’Malley, maybe finest recognized for his handful of appearances on Robinson’s sketch present, stays firmly within the former class.
I carry this up as a result of once I noticed the film, I used to be in the midst of writing a chunk about how not often runners are stealing towards the Royals this yr. (Within the week since that piece got here out, Royals opponents have tried one stolen base. It was unsuccessful.) The entire thing made me marvel how a lot a catcher’s popularity for controlling the working sport may affect how properly he truly controls it. Take into account Yadier Molina. All through his profession, his opponents tried to steal a median of 52 bases per 1,000 innings. That’s by far the bottom charge towards any catcher within the twenty first Century, and one of many lowest of all time. To seek out one other catcher this century with a decrease charge of stolen base makes an attempt, you’d need to drop the taking part in time minimal all the way down to 200 innings behind the dish, and even then, just one catcher comes out forward of Molina: Mike Mahoney, who, funnily sufficient, caught most of his profession innings as Molina’s backup in 2005. In fact, Molina performed about 18,000 extra innings in his profession than Mahoney. Should you set the minimal at 1,000 innings – nonetheless lower than a full season – the subsequent closest catcher to Molina is 13-time Gold Glover and first poll Corridor of Famer Ivan Rodriguez. Even then, it’s not shut. Rodriguez allowed a median of 63 stolen base makes an attempt per 1,000 innings within the twenty first Century, 11 greater than Molina. There’s little doubt Molina was completely terrific at controlling the working sport. However had been his expertise actually that significantly better than these of another catcher? I’m skeptical.
Tim Robinson is actually humorous. Yadier Molina was actually good at throwing out would-be basestealers. However when you let their reputations precede them, you run the chance of laughing over the joke or passing up a golden alternative to advance a base. So watch the film, hearken to the road, and snigger when you discover it humorous. Take into account the specifics of the scenario, calculate the chance, and take off for the subsequent base when you assume your probabilities of success are excessive sufficient. And when you’re writing the Positional Energy Rankings, it’s worthwhile to take a look at extra than simply the prospect lists, projections, and surface-level minor league stats, otherwise you may name a possible All-Star “organizational depth.”
If I had appeared slightly nearer, I might need thought-about what the Pink Sox gave as much as purchase Narváez. They despatched 21-year-old Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz and worldwide bonus pool house to their fiercest rival to finish the swap. Rodriguez-Cruz was universally a higher-ranked prospect than Narváez. He first appeared at no. 16 (40+ FV) on our Pink Sox Prime Prospects listing two years in the past and climbed to no. 7 (45 FV) final season. We at the moment have him at no. 6 within the Yankees system. Whether or not or not the groups’ inside evaluations match our personal, that’s not the form of participant you commerce for organizational depth – particularly to not a divisional foe, particularly not whereas additionally together with worldwide bonus pool house, and particularly not when there are many guys like Sabol and Zavala who’re all however free to accumulate. The Pink Sox didn’t simply want a backup catcher. They wished Narváez.
Boston catching teacher Parker Guinn spoke extremely of Narváez in spring coaching, telling MassLive’s Christopher Smith that he was “one of many high, if not the highest defender in Triple-A final yr.” Guinn additionally mentioned the group’s plan to make Narváez even higher: a throwing program to “enhance his arm power.” To date, so good. He ranks within the high quartile of catchers in pop time, and he’s caught 10 of 42 potential basestealers. In response to Statcast, he’s been value +2 caught stealing runs above common.
In a chunk for the web site “Discuss Sox,” our personal Davy Andrews took notice of Narváez’s exceptional framing this spring, and that excellence has carried over into the common season. Narváez has transformed 45.2% of non-swing pitches within the shadow zone into strikes. That’s the Eleventh-best charge amongst certified catchers, despite the fact that Pink Sox pitchers have made the job as tough as potential; they’ve the very best charge of out-of-zone shadow zone pitches within the league. Accordingly, Narváez ranks fifth amongst all catchers in our framing runs metric.
What’s extra, it’s not simply protection that makes Narváez so invaluable. The one catchers (min. 150 PA) with the next wRC+ proper now are Raleigh and Will Smith. Narváez was a glove-first participant within the minors, and that continues to be the case. He received’t preserve a .366 BABIP all season, and whereas his .357 wOBA places him within the high 20% of hitters, his .327 xwOBA is just a tick above league common. But, he doesn’t need to be an amazing hitter if he retains taking part in this type of protection. He solely has to hit properly sufficient to justify a spot on the backside of a lineup, and up to now, it appears like he can hack it towards main league pitching. His 9.6% stroll charge suggests he is aware of when to not swing, and his 43.6% hard-hit charge reveals he can do some harm when he does. This may come as a complete shock to anybody who solely checked out his Triple-A stats (104 wRC+) or preseason ZiPS projection (77 wRC+), however there have been clues hinting at his potential development to come back.
Eli Ben-Porat of Baseball America wrote earlier than the season that Narváez had the abilities to be “a top quality hitter,” paying attention to his bettering exit velocities and plate self-discipline. Ben-Porat even advised Narváez may change Connor Wong as Boston’s main catcher earlier than the tip of the yr, and went as far as to say he may “submit a couple of three-win seasons” in his profession. As Ben-Porat acknowledged, that second prediction was nearly wildly optimistic, particularly contemplating how low his personal publication had ranked Narváez as a prospect. Nevertheless, it didn’t take lengthy for Narváez to usurp Wong, and he’s properly on his strategy to a three-win marketing campaign.
Actually, when you go to our WAR leaderboard and convey down the taking part in time minimal beneath the certified threshold, you’ll discover Narváez (2.0 WAR) on the very first web page. I’d argue his is the top-ranked title that even a devoted baseball fan may not have heard earlier than. To check this idea, I texted my brother: “Are you accustomed to Carlos Narváez?” Take notice that he’s a large enough fan that I didn’t have to specify I used to be speaking a couple of ballplayer; I’d be extra more likely to specify if I had been texting him about something aside from baseball.
“I perhaps know the title,” he replied.
With the best way Narváez is taking part in, he received’t be nameless for much longer. He’s constructing a popularity. How do I do know that? For one factor, he already has some sensible baseball minds spewing fantastically meaningless phrase salads to explain his efficiency. Former Pink Sox catcher, group captain, and present coach Jason Varitek advised the Boston Herald that Narváez is “an elite defender, an elite receiver.” A lot so, in truth, that, “In a nutshell, Carlos is a baseball participant… He’s a baseball participant and he exudes baseball.” There’s some excessive reward in that nonsense.
Extra significant than clichéd jargon is the very fact the Narváez has change into Boston’s beginning catcher, with no clear competitors to take the job from him anytime quickly. He’s additionally taking part in himself into the Rookie of the Yr dialog. Coming into the season, the Pink Sox had three sturdy candidates for ROY consideration, presuming they made their huge league debuts: Kristian Campbell, Roman Anthony, and Marcelo Mayer. But, their strongest candidate proper now isn’t any of these Prime 100 Prospects. Whereas Jacob Wilson appears to be working away with the award, Narváez would get his fair proportion of votes if the season ended at the moment.
So, is he a real breakout star? A strong participant having a terrific run? A flash within the pan? We’ll have to attend and see, however it doesn’t matter what, he’s change into a reputation it is best to know. Carlos Narváez deserves a popularity.