Regardless of Excessive-Profile Accidents and Struggles, the Astros are Respiration Down the Mariners’ Necks

When the Astros awoke on Could 7, they have been 17-18 and had simply slipped into fourth place within the AL West. They’d just lately positioned Yordan Alvarez — who had struggled mightily to that time — on the injured record with what had been recognized as a muscle pressure in his proper hand. First baseman Christian Walker, their massive free agent addition, was scuffling alongside beneath alternative degree, and each new left fielder Jose Altuve and the group that changed him at second base have been taking part in each bit as badly. In the meantime, their already-thin rotation had been additional compromised by the lack of Spencer Arrighetti. However even whereas receiving extra dangerous information on Alvarez, and dropping two extra starters — Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski — to Tommy John surgical procedure, the Astros have turned issues round, successful 15 of 24 and briefly sneaking into first place within the AL West.

At this writing, the Astros are actually 32-27, and have trimmed the Mariners’ division lead from 4 video games to half a recreation:

By comparability, the Mariners began 21-14, however have gone 11-12 since. Since Could 6, the Astros have received 4 collection (towards the Reds, Royals, Mariners, and A’s), misplaced one (Rays), and break up two (Rangers and Rays). They took three out of 4 from the Mariners at dwelling from Could 22-25, capped by Walker’s walk-off two-run homer off Casey Legumina on Could 25. That was one in every of three walk-off victories throughout that span; Isaac Paredes‘ solo homer off the Royals’ John Schreiber on Could 13 and Yainer Diaz’s solo homer off the Rays’ Garrett Cleavinger on Could 30 have been the others. The latter shot lifted the Astros’ report to 31-26, permitting them to sneak previous the Mariners and into first place, however since then, Seattle beat Minnesota in every of its subsequent two video games whereas Houston break up a pair with Tampa Bay, restoring the Mariners to first place by the barest of margins:

The offense has been the most important driver of Houston’s surge, bettering from 3.88 runs per recreation with a 94 wRC+ over the Astros’ first 35 video games to 4.29 runs per recreation with a 119 wRC+ within the final 24. Each common besides Walker has hit for a 100 wRC+ or higher over the latter span, as have part-timers Mauricio Dubón (who’s sharing second base with the a lot much less productive Brendan Rodgers) and Zach Dezenzo (who shared time with Altuve in left and dabbled at DH within the absence of Alvarez earlier than touchdown on the injured record with left hand irritation). Just one Astro with at the very least 60 complete plate appearances has been much less productive since Could 6 than he was earlier than, particularly heart fielder Jake Meyers — and he’s nonetheless been comfortably above-average:

It’s taken a very long time for the Astros to realize readability relating to Alvarez, who final performed on Could 2 after sitting out for a few days on account of what was initially described as irritation in his proper hand; the slugger stated he’d harm the hand swinging the bat in late April however performed via ache as a result of he’d handled related accidents up to now. He went on the injured record on Could 5, was recognized with a muscle pressure following an MRI the following day, resumed taking batting follow on Could 12, and continued to ramp up his baseball actions. After he homered throughout batting follow final Friday, he appeared near returning to the lineup, however upon admitting he was nonetheless feeling discomfort, the Astros despatched him for one more MRI — and found that he’d fractured his fourth metacarpal. What was described as “a really small fracture” had beforehand been obscured by the irritation and was solely 60% healed; the damage might have been exacerbated as Alvarez elevated the depth of his rehab.

“It doesn’t shock me that it was fractured,” Alvarez stated on Friday. “I knew there was one thing on there on my first MRI. I had the muscle pressure. That was what I used to be coping with, and time handed and it was presupposed to get higher, but it surely wasn’t.”

Alvarez will likely be shut down from hitting till the fracture heals, and can most likely want time to get his swing so as, so he might be out till mid-to-late June. In his absence, supervisor Joe Espada has primarily used Altuve, Dezenso, and whichever catcher wasn’t behind the plate that day (Caratini or Diaz) to DH, and whereas solely Altuve has actually thrived in that capability, the crew’s 108 wRC+ from that spot since dropping Alvarez has been a big enchancment.

Altuve’s transfer to left area has not gone properly on both finish, in that he’s been awful defensively (-7 DRS, -3 FRV) in 268 innings on the new place, whereas additionally beginning slowly on the plate. He’s dabbled at second base as properly, beginning 12 video games there, however the place has was a sinkhole: He, Dubón, and Rogers have mixed for a 64 wRC+ and 0.5 WAR as second basemen. That stated, Atuve’s bat has just lately perked up; over his final 10 video games, he’s homered 5 instances whereas amassing 15 hits, lifting his general wRC+ from 79 to 103.

Paredes and Peña have performed probably the most to energy this surge. Whereas Paredes’ general manufacturing (.252/.349/.445, 129 wRC+) hasn’t fairly matched what the now-injured Alex Bregman has performed in Boston to date (.299/.385/.553, 160 wRC+), his wRC+ is larger than Bregman’s marks in his remaining two years as an Astro (126 in 2023, 118 final yr), and he initiatives to approximate Bregman’s WAR in these years (4.5 and 4.2, respectively).

The 27-year-old Peña hit for a 100 wRC+ whereas averaging 16 homers, 15 steals, and three.0 WAR in his first three seasons after changing Carlos Correa, however proper now he’s hitting .309/.373/.480 (145 wRC+) with 9 homers and 10 steals. His wRC+ ranks second amongst all shortstops behind Jacob Wilson, whereas his 2.9 WAR is tops. After displaying as much as camp in 2024 with a brand new swing, he has continued to tinker. Along with simplifying his higher physique motion, based on Statcast’s metrics, he has opened his stance from three levels to 18, elevated the gap between his toes by about six inches, and has lowered the lean of his swing — sufficient modifications to fill an article down the street. A few of these modifications aren’t laborious to identify:

These setups come from dwelling runs final September 7 towards the Diamondbacks and this previous Could 13 towards the Royals:

Whereas Peña’s common exit velocity of 88.3 mph is simply 0.3 mph above his profession norm, his 6.8% barrel fee and 41.7% hard-hit fee are his greatest marks since his rookie season, and his 20.3% pulled air fee and .433 xSLG are each profession highs.

On the pitching facet, the Astros haven’t been fairly as stingy throughout this run (4.0 runs per recreation) as they have been via Could 6 (3.65 runs per recreation), however that has extra to do with just a few bullpen blowups than a rotation that has been stable on both facet of the break up regardless of weathering so many accidents:

Already down J.P. France, Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier on account of surgical procedures (capsule restore for France, Tommy John for the opposite two), and Arrighetti on account of a damaged thumb when he was hit by an errant ball throughout batting follow, the Astros positioned Wesneski on the IL with elbow discomfort on Could 9. The 27-year-old righty, who was acquired from the Cubs within the Kyle Tucker commerce together with Paredes and Cam Smith, broke camp because the fifth starter and made six begins with a 4.50 ERA and 4.77 FIP. An preliminary MRI on Could 10 revealed solely irritation, however a follow-up examination by Dr. Keith Meister yielded the analysis of a torn UCL; he underwent surgical procedure on Could 23.

The 31-year-old Blanco, whose 2024 breakout included an April 1 no-hitter, seemed to be rounding into type after a rocky begin to his season; he struck out a season-high 11 Reds in eight shutout innings on Could 11, his penultimate begin. Alas, he reported elbow soreness after a six-inning, three-run begin on Could 17 towards the Rangers, went on the IL on Could 22, and found he wanted Tommy John surgical procedure on Could 28.

The 2 constants in Houston’s rotation have been Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez. The 26-year-old Brown has been stellar, permitting zero or one runs in eight of his 12 begins; his 1.83 ERA, 2.67 FIP, and a pair of.2 WAR all rank fourth within the AL. The 31-year-old Valdez has a 3.12 ERA and three.24 FIP; he allowed 12 of his 27 runs in a pair of early April begins however has in any other case been excellent as properly. He wanted simply 83 pitches to throw a complete-game three-hitter towards the Rays on Could 30, the bottom complete for a nine-inning recreation in six years.

The rotation is now rounded out by Lance McCullers Jr. and rookies Colton Gordon and Ryan Gusto. The 31-year-old McCullers joined the rotation on Could 4, after a collection of forearm accidents — culminating in surgical procedure to restore a torn flexor tendon final June — stored him out of the majors for the reason that 2022 postseason. His 5.89 ERA and 4.66 FIP aren’t fairly, however these numbers are distorted by a seven-run, one-out begin towards the Reds on Could 10 (the one which elicited a dying menace towards his household from an intoxicated gambler who lives abroad). He’s allowed 5 earned runs in his different 4 begins totaling 18 innings, and eventually made it via the fifth inning on Could 28 towards the A’s, throwing 102 pitches whereas hanging out 12 in six innings. Gordon, a soft-tossing 26-year-old lefty, has been tagged for a 5.95 ERA and 4.30 FIP in 4 begins. He’s a 35+ FV prospect who will get nice extension and throws a ton of strikes however is liable to serving up homers. Gusto, a 26-year-old righty, has been efficient as a reliever to date (0.93 ERA and 4.22 FIP in 9.2 innings) however not as a starter (5.83 ERA and 4.54 FIP in 29.1 innings), although to be honest, he’s been shuttled forwards and backwards; he’s walked 10.7% of hitters and has given up a variety of laborious contact.

Assistance is on the best way… ultimately. Arrighetti resumed throwing final week, however he’s taking a look at a July return. Javier, who underwent Tommy John surgical procedure final June 6, started throwing bullpen periods on Could 9 however has been introduced alongside slowly and sure received’t return till after the All-Star break. If anybody breaks down earlier than these two return, AJ Blubaugh, a 25-year-old righty who was shellacked for seven runs (however simply two earned) in an April 30 spot begin towards the Tigers, might be the following man up; he’s a 40+ FV prospect with a starter’s repertoire however below-average command, as evidenced by his 13.7% stroll fee and 6.59 ERA at Triple-A Sugarland. Past that, normal supervisor Dana Brown might must scare up a starter from exterior the group.

As for the bullpen, general it has the AL’s second-highest strikeout fee (27.5%), second-lowest FIP (3.31) and seventh-lowest ERA (3.53). Nearer Josh Hader, setup man Bryan Abreu, and middlemen Shawn Dubin and Steven Okert have all pitched properly on the whole, in that every has an ERA of two.05 or decrease and a FIP of two.77 or decrease. Nevertheless, Abreu’s three blown save alternatives — and his three detrimental WPA outings — have all come towards the Mariners, in losses on April 7, April 9, and Could 23; in his different 23 outings, he’s thrown 23.1 scoreless innings and has stranded all six inherited runners. Setup counterpart Bryan King carried a 1.52 ERA and a pair of.32 FIP into final week, however upon getting into a tied recreation towards the Rays on Could 29 was torched for 5 hits and 5 runs in one-third of an inning, capped by a three-run Junior Caminero homer. Other than these high-profile hiccups, it’s been lower-leverage relievers resembling Kaleb Ort, the since-released Tayler Scott and people shuttling to and from Sugar Land who’ve inflated the unit’s ERA.

Whereas the Astros have had sluggish begins lately — March/April data of 14-12 (2021), 11-10 (2022), 15-13 (2023), 10-19 (2024), and 16-14 (2025) — they’ve usually sorted themselves out in Could whereas their closest rivals have come again to earth. Because the pandemic, the one time they’ve had a dropping report on the 59-game mark was final yr, after they overcame a 26-33 begin to go 88-73 and win the AL West for the fourth straight yr. That is their second-worst begin in that span, but they’re simply an eyelash from first place, with almost even odds of successful the division regardless of their woes and a slim margin for error. In the event you have been ready for Houston’s long term of contenders to finish, this won’t be your yr.