This yr, Josh Bell returned to Washington with a brand new aim in thoughts. “What this crew wants is slug,” he instructed reporters throughout a Zoom name when he signed again in January. He defined that though he’d all the time prided himself on making contact and avoiding strikeouts – Bell’s profession strikeout charge is 14% under the league common and his slugging proportion is 5% above it – he was lastly able to make use of his 6’3” body and commerce contact for energy:
That’s sort of in my DNA, however understanding MVPs the previous few years, they hit 40-plus homers they usually would possibly strike out 150-plus instances, however that doesn’t get talked about. The slug is crucial factor. That’s the place WAR is. That’s what wins video games… I’ve an enormous body, and I ought to most likely hit greater than 19 dwelling runs a season. Hopefully, a yr from now I will be wanting again on a season the place I had 40-plus and break my very own information for slug in a season. That’s the aim.
Bell got here into the season with a extra upright stance, a barely increased leg kick, and a brand new mission. “I really feel like I’m not afraid to strikeout extra if it means much less groundballs,” he mentioned in February. “I do know after I’m at my greatest, I don’t hit the ball on the bottom. I strike out a bit bit extra. So if I can take one and eliminate the opposite, then I’ll be in a superb place and the common ought to keep the identical or go up. Time will inform.”
I deliver all this up as a result of Bell has seen an enormous change in his batted balls this season, but it surely’s very positively not the change he hoped to see. Up to now this season, he’s operating a .173 ISO, a bit down from his profession mark, however roughly consistent with what he’s carried out for the final a number of years. His hard-hit charge and exit velocity are practically similar to final season’s marks. So when it comes to each outcomes and uncooked contact high quality, he’s no more highly effective, however he’s not much less highly effective both. The experiment might have failed, but it surely didn’t blow up the laboratory.
The factor is, the laboratory did blow up. Beakers and Bunsen burners and people little sparker thingies you employ to mild the Bunsen burners are raining down throughout your entire Japanese Seaboard, as a result of Bell wasn’t simply speaking about remoted energy. He was speaking about slugging, and he’s at the moment operating a .358 slugging proportion. That’s the bottom of his total profession, and 67 factors off his 2024 mark. How did he lose a lot slug whereas his contact high quality and ISO stayed just about the identical? The reply is the rationale we’re right here. Bell is at the moment operating a .189 BABIP. That’s unhealthy by Bell’s requirements. He’s an enormous, sluggish, would-be energy man, however he’s by no means run horrible BABIPs. His profession .284 mark is nice for a 95 BABIP+, under common, however not disastrously so. In case you didn’t main in subtraction, meaning Bell is at the moment 95 factors under his profession mark.
That’s additionally unhealthy by any normal, ever. It’s the bottom BABIP amongst certified gamers by 28 factors. I pulled the BABIP of each participant in AL/NL historical past who made at the very least 400 plate appearances in a season. Bell is on tempo to run the second-lowest BABIP of all time, not far above second baseman Joe Gerhardt, who batted .155 with a .176 BABIP for the New York Giants in 1885. Fortunately, what Gerhardt lacked as a hitter, he greater than made up for together with his mustache.
The underside of the record is definitely fairly enjoyable. It’s acquired plenty of hitters who simply occurred to have horrible years, but it surely’s additionally stuffed with dwelling run-hitting specialists like Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber, Dave Kingman, Mark McGwire, and even Roger Maris in his record-setting 1961 season. When each ball you hit arduous goes out of the ballpark, you’ll run a rock-bottom BABIP, as a result of your balls in play are simply the weakly hit balls that stay.
I really feel pretty assured that Gerhardt’s numbers are incomplete – it’s arduous to belief the scoring in a season that occurred three years earlier than the ballpoint pen was invented – so if we restrict ourselves to certified gamers from the trendy period, Bell finds himself seven factors under the .196 report set by Toronto’s Aaron Hill in 2010. If we modify for the league common, Bell has a BABIP+ of 64, properly under the 66 put up by Hill and Cleveland’s Willie Kirkland in 1962.
As all the time, we must always observe that we’re solely a 3rd of the best way by the season. BABIP is, by definition, extraordinarily depending on luck, so it’s most unlikely that Bell will truly set this report. We’d count on any participant operating a BABIP that low to regress to the imply, and Bell started doing so a pair weeks in the past.
All the identical, it’s arduous to think about issues getting this unhealthy for no motive in any way. It’s not simply luck, and there are many actual variations in Bell’s recreation. He has dropped his groundball-to-fly-ball charge to 1.22, down from 1.50 final season and the bottom he’s put up since 2019, the perfect marketing campaign of his profession. His 38.2% fly ball charge is the best of his profession, and largely as a result of a career-high 18.3% of his balls in play have been pulled within the air, 18% of his fly balls have gone for dwelling runs. That’s not an enormous quantity, but it surely’s his highest in years and it places him within the 79th percentile amongst certified gamers. So in a sure approach, Bell actually has succeeded at his aim. At the very least from the left facet, Bell is lifting the ball within the air and hitting dwelling runs.
Statcast’s bat monitoring numbers present that from the left facet of the plate, Bell has certainly seemed a bit completely different. Though his swing path is angled roughly the identical because it was the final two seasons, he’s assembly the ball farther out in entrance of the plate – or, extra precisely, he’s not assembly the ball as far behind the plate as he used to – serving to him report the next bat pace than he did in 2024 (although not 2023), and giving him a barely steeper assault angle, permitting him to raise the ball extra.
Even so, that hasn’t helped Bell hit the ball within the air extra, or at the very least not but. This season, 44.5% of his batted balls from the left facet have been fly balls and line drives, his lowest mark since 2022. Nevertheless, when he has hit the ball within the air from the left facet, he’s been actually spectacular; his 98.3-mph common exit velocity is the best of his profession by a large margin — however he’s not seeing outcomes simply but. He’s hitting deep fly balls that get caught on or earlier than the warning observe, however fewer line drives that fall in for singles or find yourself within the hole for doubles. Bell has only one double and one triple this season (and the triple was an absolute present that ought to’ve been a single). His slug is coming nearly completely from homers and singles.
A few of this will simply be unhealthy luck. Bell will probably hit extra line drives or see a couple of extra fly balls make it previous the warning observe because the climate heats up. Nevertheless, though the bat monitoring numbers don’t look all that completely different, it does appear to be promoting out for pull-side energy has affected his swing. He’s popping the ball up extra. When he hits the ball on the bottom from the left facet, he’s operating the best pull charge, however the lowest launch angle, exit velocity, and hard-hit charge of his profession. Clearly, his swing isn’t as geared for groundballs anymore, however he’s nonetheless hitting quite a lot of them, to a worse spot on the sector, and the outcomes have been very unhealthy.
To recap, from the left facet, Bell is pulling the ball within the air extra, simply as he’d hoped. However the end result has been quite a lot of fly ball outs and popups. Furthermore, he’s additionally pulling the ball on the bottom extra, leading to tons of weak outs to first and second. Bell’s .208 BABIP from the left facet is greater than 80 factors decrease than it’s been in any earlier season.
When Bell is batting from the proper facet, the other has occurred. His bat pace is up some, however he’s making contact deeper than ever and his bat is flatter than ever. He’s lifting the ball at roughly the identical charge he has over the previous few years, however these air balls aren’t not falling as a result of he’s hitting them extra weakly than ever. His BABIP from the proper facet is .095, the worst of his profession by greater than 110 factors.
The spray chart says all of it right here. Bell is hitting extra fly balls and fewer groundballs. However he’s not hitting the ball a lot tougher, so quite a lot of these fly balls are simply lengthy outs. He’s additionally not squaring the ball up properly, which suggests fewer line drives and much more simple groundball outs to the proper facet.
The brand new bat monitoring information has actually emphasised the extent to which hitting is about trade-offs. Positive, the perfect gamers within the recreation are those who can do plenty of issues properly. They acknowledge pitches properly, which permits them to get in the perfect place to hit the ball. They’re versatile and powerful, which permits them to wreck pitches over a big space of the strike zone. And so they’ve acquired the kinesthetic intelligence to determine how you can modify their swings with out leaking bat pace. However that’s a uncommon assortment of items reserved for the perfect on this planet. Most hitters can’t do all the things. They’re always making an attempt to determine which method, which stance, which stride, which load, which bat path will permit them to profit from the items they’ve whereas exposing as few of their weaknesses as potential.
Bell deserves an enormous quantity of credit score for deciding to reinvent himself at age 32, with 9 massive league seasons beneath his belt. I’m not even positive I’m able to conclude that this experiment is a failure simply but. Bell’s new method has uncovered some new flaws, but it surely’s nonetheless early on. He received’t keep this unfortunate, and he’ll most likely enhance as he will get extra expertise with this method. “It’s not going to return in a single night time or one week,” he mentioned a couple of weeks in the past. “It’s stacking at-bats and stacking collection and stacking months at this level to attempt to make up for among the ruts that I’ve been in the previous few weeks.” He took a primary step at that over the weekend. In his previous 5 video games, he’s batting .429 with three homers, and he’s raised his BABIP by 16 factors. Once I pitched this text, he was under previous Joe Gerhardt, and his BABIP+ was at a mere 60. Whenever you’re beginning out this low, there’s just one path left to go.
Nevertheless issues shake out, Bell is unlikely to set a brand new report. If we assume that he performs the remainder of the season with the identical charge of plate appearances per recreation, he’d solely should put up a .200 BABIP the remainder of the best way with a purpose to keep away from breaking Hill’s report. That’s an extremely low quantity. Bell’s the one certified participant beneath .217 proper now! Furthermore, if he does hold operating such an abysmal BABIP, even for a crew as hopeless because the Nationals, he’s most likely going to lose some enjoying time, which might hold him from qualifying. That’s why it’s so arduous to set the unhealthy information. For those who hold enjoying badly, you received’t hold enjoying.
You can even argue that Bell hasn’t gone far sufficient with this new method. His batting stance doesn’t look all that completely different. His contact and strikeout charges aren’t that removed from his profession marks, and as I discussed earlier, his bat monitoring numbers don’t present a a lot steeper swing in any respect. He’s additionally been a lot much less aggressive, operating his lowest zone-swing charge in years, and the bat monitoring metrics present that he’s assembly the ball deeper than 91% of the batters within the league. That’s not what it seems like when somebody’s attacking the ball and trying to do harm. Perhaps Bell will determine to desert this experiment and return to doing what he does greatest. After such a tough begin, it will be arduous accountable him. However assuming his batted ball luck continues to rebound, it won’t be that dangerous to proceed the experiment.