No group has been caught stealing greater than the Royals this yr. As arduous because it could be to imagine, their 20 thwarted stolen base makes an attempt are essentially the most within the league. Their 70.1% stolen base success fee ranks twenty seventh, as do their -2.1 weighted stolen base runs (wSB). This stands in stark distinction to what many consider because the Royals’ model of baseball. In any case, you’d have to return to 2017 to discover a full season during which the Royals didn’t rank among the many prime 5 AL groups in wSB, and all the best way again to 2010 to search out the final time their wSB was under league common. Because of gamers like Whit Merrifield, Jarrod Dyson, Adalberto Mondesi, Alcides Escobar and, most not too long ago, Bobby Witt Jr., the Royals of the 2010s and 2020s developed a fame as essentially the most larcenous group within the league. From 2011-24, no group stole extra bases, and no group racked up extra wSB.
Kansas Metropolis’s stolen base supremacy hasn’t been restricted to at least one facet of the ball, both. From 2011-24, solely two groups allowed fewer stolen bases than the Royals, and none caught would-be basestealers at the next fee. In response to the stolen base part of DRS (rSB), their catchers had been twice as productive as every other group’s backstops in that interval, whereas their pitchers had been 12 runs higher than the next-best group (the Diamondbacks) and greater than thrice as beneficial because the next-best AL membership (the Orioles). The Statcast numbers inform an identical story, though they solely return to 2016. From 2016-24, Kansas Metropolis catchers ranked second in each catcher and pitcher stealing runs. No different group positioned inside the prime 5 in each metrics. So, you may make a reasonably convincing case that stopping stolen bases is much more important to the Royals’ model of baseball than stealing bases, particularly with the best way issues have gone in 2025. Their baserunners could be struggling to swipe luggage like they did previously, however their protection has taken management of the operating sport like by no means earlier than.
The Royals have caught 47% of would-be basestealers this yr. That’s the very best fee by any group in a single season since 2005, when Yadier Molina’s Cardinals caught 51% of runners. During the last 20 years, solely two different groups have caught even 45% of runners in a full season: the 2005 Twins, led by Joe Mauer, and the 2005 Tigers, led by Ivan Rodriguez. Looks as if 2005 was an incredible yr to be a legendary catcher.
Now, I ought to level out that Kansas Metropolis’s elite success fee has are available in a reasonably tiny pattern. It might solely take yet one more caught stealing to deliver the group’s success fee as much as 50% or yet one more stolen base to push it under 45%. On this case, nonetheless, the small pattern isn’t a purpose to disregard what the Royals are doing. Fairly the alternative: The pattern measurement is exactly what warrants our consideration. They’ve performed 57 video games and 508 1/3 defensive innings in 2025. Solely the Pink Sox have performed extra baseball. But, in these innings, the Royals have restricted their opponents to lower than half as many stolen base makes an attempt as every other group has allowed. The opposite 29 golf equipment have given up someplace between 82 (Marlins) and 26 (Mets) stolen bases this yr. The Royals have allowed solely 17 stolen base makes an attempt.
If this tempo holds, the Royals will solely see 48 stolen base makes an attempt in opposition to all of them yr. Twenty-three groups have already allowed at the least 48 stolen base makes an attempt this season, and it’s not even the top of Might. In 2023 and ’24, the primary two years underneath the brand new guidelines to incentivize stolen bases, just one group allowed fewer than 100 stolen base makes an attempt in a single marketing campaign: final yr’s Royals (86). In the meantime, solely two groups on our leaderboards (the data date again to 1956) have ever had opponents try and steal fewer than 50 instances in opposition to them in a full season: the 1956 Braves (28) and the 1956 Pirates (46). I’m additionally greater than a bit of skeptical of these figures, contemplating they’re each from the very first yr we’ve the information, and the overall recorded variety of stolen base makes an attempt by groups on offense in 1956 doesn’t match up with the overall recorded variety of stolen base makes an attempt in opposition to groups on protection. All that’s to say the Royals might be on their solution to one of many biggest seasons of stolen base deterrence any of us has ever seen.
Let that sink in. The Royals have caught potential basestealers on the highest fee within the league, despite the fact that their opponents have been just about unprecedentedly cautious. To place this in context, I whipped up a stat I’m calling “adjusted stolen base makes an attempt per inning” (SBA/Inn+). As with all of our “plus” stats, a rating of 100 represents league common, whereas 90 would characterize 10% fewer stolen base makes an attempt per inning than league common, and 110 would characterize 10% extra stolen base makes an attempt per inning than league common. Two months into the season, the Royals have an SBA/Inn+ of 30. Meaning opposing baserunners have tried 70% fewer stolen bases in opposition to the Royals than they’ve in opposition to the typical group. That’s absurd! The desk under lists each group that has completed a season with an SBA/Inn+ of 60 or under within the twenty first Century. It’s not arduous to see that the Royals are in a league of their very own proper now. They may permit stolen base makes an attempt at twice as excessive a fee over the remaining 4 months of the yr and nonetheless end with the bottom SBA/Inn+ of any group in any full season this century:
High Groups of the twenty first Century by SBA/Inn+
A technique the Royals have restricted stolen base makes an attempt that doesn’t actually have something to do with controlling the operating sport is that they have merely prevented runners from reaching base within the first place. Whereas their 508 1/3 defensive innings are the second most within the majors, they rank among the many backside half of groups (seventeenth) in batters confronted. Solely three golf equipment — the Rays, Rangers, and Astros — have confronted fewer batters per inning. Relatedly, Royals pitchers have held their opponents to the sixth-lowest OBP within the league.
With that mentioned, Royals pitchers nonetheless rank among the many prime third of groups in batters confronted with a runner on first or second and the subsequent base open – often known as stolen base alternatives (SBO). So, I made a decision to make one other model of an adjusted stolen base makes an attempt metric, this time utilizing SBO because the denominator. SBO is much from an ideal stat, since not all stolen base alternatives are equally prone to result in an try. To attempt to account for that, at the least considerably, I weighted stolen base alternatives at second base 5.7 instances extra closely than alternatives at third, as a result of runners have been 5.7 instances extra prone to attempt to capitalize on alternatives at second this season. By this metric — let’s name it “adjusted stolen base makes an attempt per weighted alternative” (SBA/wSBO+) — the Royals stand out much more. Their SBA/wSBO+ is 27, or 73% decrease than league common. They could be expert at limiting baserunners, however that doesn’t have something to do with how properly they’ve been limiting stolen base makes an attempt.
One other extraneous issue that usually comes up in discussions about controlling the operating sport is pitcher handedness. In concept, left-handed pitchers needs to be higher at stopping stolen bases as a result of they’ve a transparent view of first base from the mound. The Royals do certainly have fairly just a few lefties on their employees this yr, together with Cole Ragans, Kris Bubic, Noah Cameron, and Daniel Lynch IV. All informed, lefties have thrown 39.2% of the group’s innings, the fourth-highest fee within the majors. But, the truth that the Royals have obtained about 60 extra innings from left-handed pitchers than the typical group can’t presumably clarify every part that’s happening right here. In any case, eight of the 17 stolen base makes an attempt in opposition to Kansas Metropolis have include a left-hander on the mound. Certainly, and perhaps I ought to have led with this, lefties aren’t really any higher than righties at stopping stolen base makes an attempt, at the least not within the age of disengagement limits. In every of the previous three years, left-handed pitchers have confronted about 26% of batters, and about 26% of stolen base makes an attempt have include a lefty on the mound. So, Kansas Metropolis’s southpaw-heavy employees can’t all take the credit score for controlling the operating sport. Merely put, the Royals have simply been actually good at this.
The disappointing irony, nonetheless, is that the Royals aren’t far forward of the pack in any measurement of stolen base prevention worth. Their downside is that incomes an additional out on the bases is much more beneficial than stopping a runner from taking off within the first place. It’s arduous to take advantage of their wonderful stolen base prevention expertise when different groups aren’t attempting to steal bases in opposition to them. Thus, in response to Baseball Savant, the Royals rank tenth in catcher stealing runs (+1). They lead the league in pitcher stealing runs (+3), however the Guardians, Orioles, and Mets (all +2) aren’t far behind. In the meantime, in response to DRS, Royals catchers rank fourth with +2 rSB, and their pitchers rank second with +4 rSB. These are all sturdy numbers, and the Royals haven’t any purpose to be sad. Nonetheless, it’s humorous how they’re stopping stolen base makes an attempt at such an elite fee, and but it isn’t making a lot of a distinction in any particular person measurement of stolen base prevention worth in comparison with what they’ve achieved in earlier seasons.
Whether or not or not it’s making a significant distinction when it comes to worth, there’s little question the Royals have achieved phenomenal work controlling the operating sport. What’s more durable to determine is how they’re doing it. Salvador Perez and Freddy Fermin, who share main catching duties in KC, are each wonderful at stopping stolen bases. Perez has racked up +20 catcher stealing runs (per Statcast) since 2016, and needless to say he debuted 5 years earlier. His numbers have declined since his peak, however he has solely had one below-average season over the past 10 years. His arm isn’t almost as sturdy because it as soon as was, although his trade time has improved in his mid-30s. In the meantime, Fermin has compiled +7 catcher stealing runs since his debut in 2022, and he boasts one of many quicker pop instances within the league. But, whereas each backstops are gifted performers at this side of their job, neither wildly stands out from the competitors by any particular person metric. Furthermore, the Royals had been fairly darn good (although not this good) at limiting stolen base makes an attempt in 2019, the yr Perez sat out recovering from Tommy John surgical procedure and properly earlier than Fermin debuted. This goes past any particular person catcher.
It’s equally arduous to search out any quantity that clearly units the Royals pitching employees aside, apart from its total Web Bases Prevented (per Statcast). Royals pitchers rank first in Baseball Savant’s Lead Distance Gained on stolen base alternatives, which measures how a lot floor runners acquire on common with their secondary leads — that means that runners are taking shorter secondary leads in opposition to them than they’re in opposition to every other group. Nonetheless, it’s not as in the event that they’re all that far forward of the next-best groups. In the identical vein, the Royals are one of many faster groups at delivering pitches with runners on base, in response to Baseball Savant’s pitch tempo leaderboard, however they don’t stand out in comparison with any of the opposite quickest pitching staffs. What’s extra, their common velocity on all pitches is the seventh slowest within the league, which ought to give their opponents extra time to go for an additional base. Lastly, they rank in the course of the pack in pickoffs, with three from their pitchers and one catcher back-pick. There are many stats to show the Royals are expert at controlling the operating sport, however frustratingly little to totally clarify how they’ve been so uniquely profitable.
Finally, I don’t assume there may be anyone measurable clarification. Part of all this might be that the Royals are benefiting from a fame that precedes them; opponents know the way nice their protection is at controlling the operating sport, so that they aren’t even attempting to run. The prophecy is fulfilling itself. Past that, I feel the Royals are merely doing all the little factor properly, together with the abilities we are able to measure and, maybe extra importantly, those we are able to’t. Contemplating how persistently they’ve ranked among the many prime groups in stolen base prevention (to not point out stealing bases on the opposite facet of the ball), that is absolutely a side of the sport to which the group devotes additional sources and a focus. Kansas Metropolis may simply know issues the remainder of us don’t. Stolen bases are on the rise for the third yr in a row, however the Royals have discovered the cheat code to maintain them at bay.