Christian Walker Hasn’t Fastened the Astros’ First Base Downside

When the Astros signed Christian Walker to a three-year, $60 million deal in December, it felt like an affordable resolution to a longstanding drawback. The Astros have hardly ever gotten good manufacturing from their first basemen previously decade, and whereas Walker hasn’t fairly been All-Star caliber, lately he’s usually supplied strong offense with distinctive protection for the place. To this point this season, he’s struggled mightily, which sadly for the Astros has come at a time when different key gamers have additionally didn’t hit, and the rotation has weathered quite a few accidents as effectively.

Final yr, Walker hit .251/.335/.468 (119 wRC+) with 26 homers and three.0 WAR for the Diamondbacks, whereas over the previous three seasons, he averaged 32 homers, a 120 wRC+, and three.6 WAR; his 2024 shortfalls primarily owed to his lacking a month as a result of an indirect pressure. Even with time missed, that 2024 manufacturing appears just like the second coming of Jeff Bagwell subsequent to the .226/.291/.360 (87 wRC+) efficiency of Astros first basemen final yr, with 18 homers however -1.4 WAR, a complete that was by some means not fairly as unhealthy as the primary basemen of the Rockies and Reds. Starter José Abreu crashed and burned and was launched in mid-June regardless of solely being about midway via his three-year, $58 million deal. Thereafter, Jon Singleton did the majority of the primary base work, sharing the job with Yainer Diaz and Victor Caratini on days when one or the opposite wasn’t catching. It wasn’t nice, but it surely no less than stopped the bleeding in that Abreu alone produced -1.5 WAR, whereas the remainder — a gaggle that additionally included Zach Dezenzo, Mauricio Dubón, and three gamers who made a single look on the place — netted 0.1 WAR.

As Michael Baumann identified when Walker signed in December, first base has been a multiyear drawback for the Astros. Through the 2022-24 span, solely three groups had decrease WARs at a single place — proper subject for the White Sox, Rockies, and Pirates — than the Astros’ -2.7 WAR at first. Over the previous decade, Yuli Gurriel was the one Astros first baseman to exceed 2.0 WAR in a single season (he did it twice), and 5 instances previously six seasons, the group’s common or co-regular first baseman completed with detrimental WAR.

Sadly via the season’s first eight weeks, the 34-year-old Walker has match proper into this sample, hitting .199/.268/.333. After all, he’s not the one place participant from our Prime 50 Free Brokers checklist who modified groups this previous winter and has struggled:

That’s seven out of 14 who’re under alternative degree almost one-third of the way in which via the season, and 9 under league common by way of offense. Walker’s manufacturing — and contract — appears even worse when in comparison with that of the person he initially changed in Arizona. Goldschmidt, who’s 3 1/2 years older, hit for only a 100 wRC+ final season, and settled for a one-year, $12.5 million take care of the Yankees, which proper now appears like a incredible discount.

Walker’s season has already included some ups and downs, in that he had a three-week interval the place he appeared to emerge from his hunch. These are arbitrary endpoints, chosen as an example the distinction between these unequal segments of his season:

Shortly after that sizzling streak ended — actually, earlier than anybody found out that it had ended, simply that he’d had back-to again hitless video games for the primary time in 4 weeks — Walker sounded as if he believed the worst of his unhealthy begin was over. “I needed to remind myself [that] my swing isn’t damaged,” he instructed MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart on Might 13. “I’m feeling good, feeling way more aggressive. Feeling like I’m serving to the group extra, which I like. Total, I really feel prefer it’s trending in the best route, for positive.”

Extra from McTaggart:

When he was struggling at his lowest factors, Walker felt he was getting too “pushy” along with his fingers, which implies he was pushing his fingers off his physique as a substitute of pushing down within the zone earlier than working the bat up via the zone. He mentioned nothing was clicking or making sense.

“And it was only a matter of which drill, which really feel, which thought within the field is all going to make that come out,” Walker mentioned. “You may get the cage work feeling good, however attempting to take one thing relevant into the sport, into the field, that retains you within the second, retains you reactive, but additionally offers you a house. No matter is clicking proper now, the sensation, I’m positive it would change slightly bit, however I’m positively feeling higher, for positive.”

In contrast to, say, Trevor Story, whose present offensive stats are notably out of whack relative to his monitor report nearly in every single place one might look, Walker’s general 2025 numbers usually don’t provide obvious contrasts to what got here earlier than. That mentioned, a lot of the comparatively delicate variations present setbacks somewhat than enhancements. His 50.2% swing charge is up about two factors over final yr. His 27.9% chase charge is up almost 4 factors from final yr and is his highest mark since 2020. His 74.9% contact charge and 12.5% swinging strike charge are his worst marks since 2021, the yr he hit for simply an 88 wRC+ in 115 video games. His swing selections, as measured by Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric, have gotten worse. The place he ranked within the ninety fifth to 99th percentile in SEAGER yearly from 2022–24 — which is to say, he was exceptionally good at figuring out and swinging on the pitches with which he might do actual injury — he’s down within the sixtieth percentile now. Consequently, Walker’s 6.8% stroll charge and 27.8% strikeout charge are his worst marks since he turned an everyday in 2019; his stroll charge has dropped 3.2 share factors from 2024, whereas his strikeout charge has gained 3.7 factors relative to final yr and (gulp) 8.6 factors relative to 2023.

A take a look at Walker’s bat monitoring metrics present that he’s misplaced a little bit of bat pace, dipping from a mean of 75 mph (with a 52.8% quick swing charge) final yr to 74.1 (with a 40.6% quick swing charge) this yr. These are averages, and a verify of his month-to-month splits reveals that he dropped to 73.7 mph in March and April earlier than rebounding to 74.6 this month. Not that it has correlated with improved manufacturing, no less than based mostly on his month-to-month splits: .196/.277/.355 (82 wRC+) via April, and .203/.256/.304 (58 wRC+) to this point in Might.

Testing the model new swing path metrics that Statcast rolled out earlier this week — name this a check drive, because it’s the primary time I’ve performed with these — the numbers present that the typical tilt of Walker’s swing has flattened by one diploma general relative to final yr, from 30 levels to 29. That isn’t damning in and of itself, and will have extra to do with the place he’s being pitched than some mechanical problem. In the meantime, he’s really improved his preferrred angle of assault charge — the frequency with which his bat is angled between 5 and 20 levels on the level of contact — from 46.9% final yr to 55.2% this yr. Once more, that doesn’t line up along with his degree of manufacturing, although inside this season’s numbers, he had a barely greater charge in his less-terrible March/April (56.7%) than his woeful Might (53.3%).

Notice that I additionally tried lining up these new metrics with the arbitrary endpoints above that confirmed shifts in his manufacturing. Probably the most revealing break up I discovered was that in this dire latest stretch that started on Might 12, he’s averaged 75.6 mph along with his swings, in comparison with 73.1 mph throughout his good stretch, suggesting he could have to dial it again only a bit.

Again in additional acquainted analytical territory, I see two obvious variations which can be slicing into Walker’s manufacturing. First off, he’s taken simply 27 plate appearances in opposition to lefties and has hit .087/.185/.130 — that’s two hits, a single and a double, plus three walks. His 13.1% share of PA in opposition to lefties really stands out greater than that grim slash line, as a result of it isn’t as if he’s platooning; he’s began 49 of the Astros’ 50 video games at first, and gone the space in 44. The Astros have taken a significant league-low 258 PA (13.9%) in opposition to lefties; the next-lowest group, the Angels, has 290 (16.1%), and the third-lowest group, the A’s, has 370 (19.6%). Like most righties, Walker hits higher in opposition to lefties; from 2022–24, he batted .264/.350/.492 (128 wRC+) in 480 PA (25.5% of his whole), in comparison with .245/.325/.478 (118 wRC+) in opposition to righties. He’s lacking out on an vital portion of his offensive weight loss program.

The opposite factor that actually stands out in Walker’s 2025 stats relative to latest years is that he’s immediately struggling mightily in opposition to four-seam fastballs:

Walker’s manufacturing in opposition to the warmers was fairly constant from 2022-24, along with his drop-off from ’23 to ’24 extra a correction relative to his anticipated stats than a real decline; his xwOBA in opposition to them in 2024 really improved by 35 factors at the same time as his wOBA fell by 28 factors. When it comes to Statcast run worth, he’s dropped from 9 runs above common final yr (and 35 above from 2022–24) to 4 under common this yr. His efficiency in opposition to changeups has declined notably as effectively, from a .328 AVG/.656 SLG in 2024 to .158 AVG/.263 SLG in ’25, with a Statcast run worth drop from six above common to 2 under.

As regards to anticipated versus precise numbers, Walker’s high quality of contact has fallen off only a bit, but it surely’s nonetheless fairly good. What’s actually modified is the hole between his precise and anticipated numbers; take a look at the drops in his percentile rankings:

Walker outdid his xSLG final yr by 11 factors, however this yr, he’s 74 factors brief. Likewise, he was eight factors wanting his xwOBA final yr, however is 41 factors brief this yr; he’s within the nineteenth percentile by way of each of these gaps, which have elevated throughout this newest hunch. Since Might 12, he’s averaged a 93.3 mph exit velo with a 20% barrel charge, 53.3% hard-hit charge, and a .309 xwOBA (that latest 30.4% strikeout charge is de facto slicing into his manufacturing), however has only a .161 wOBA over that span.

It bears noting that whereas Walker is pulling the ball extra usually, each within the air (22.3% vs. 19.2%) and general (44.6% vs. 41%), he’s taking part in in a much less favorable park for righties besides in the case of dwelling runs (thanks, Crawford Bins), no less than based on our 2024 park elements by handedness, that are based mostly on 5 years of information:

Fewer lefties, a drop in bat pace, hassle with four-seamers, a much less favorable ballpark, maybe some unhealthy luck — all of those elements are slicing into Walker’s manufacturing, they usually’re including up at an inopportune time for the Astros. Yordan Alvarez has hit simply .210/.306/.340 (78 wRC+) and has been out since Might 2 as a result of a muscle pressure in his proper hand. Jose Altuve, who homered twice within the Astros’ 9-2 win over the Mariners on Thursday, is hitting .243/.296/.370 (89 wRC+) and hasn’t clicked in his new place, left subject (-6 DRS, -2 FRV), and the group’s second basemen — primarily Brendan Rodgers (26 video games) but additionally Dubón (15 video games) and Altuve himself (10 video games) have mixed to hit .216/.280/.284 (63 wRC+) in that function. In the meantime, throughout the previous week, Hayden Wesneski realized that he wants Tommy John surgical procedure whereas Ronel Blanco has been sidelined by a bout of elbow irritation, operating the group’s whole of injured starters to 6.

That the Astros are by some means 26-24 with a 56.6% probability of creating the playoffs regardless of that litany is definitely considerably spectacular. Nonetheless, this can be a group that’s relying on its two oldest place gamers (the 35-year-old Altuve and Walker) and a famous person with a hand damage to show issues round whereas having two inexperienced rookies within the rotation (Colton Gordon and Ryan Gusto) in addition to Lance McCullers Jr., who just lately returned from a 2 1/2-year absence as a result of accidents. For all of their latest success, nothing is assured for these Astros — or for Walker.