Yesterday, I wrote an introduction to Statcast’s newest spherical of bat monitoring metrics. MLB.com’s Mike Petriello wrote an actual primer, so I attempted to construct on that by analyzing how the totally different metrics work collectively utilizing a pair widespread pitch varieties. We’re nonetheless determining learn how to use these new toys, however right now I’d like to clarify how my first dive into the bat monitoring metrics led me to at least one explicit participant who’s doing one thing bizarre, which led me to be taught one thing small about the best way swings work. In spite of everything, that’s why we’re right here exploring all these unusual new numbers within the first place.
In my first shot at taking part in with the metrics, I attempted to ascertain one thing easy. I pulled the general bat monitoring information for all certified gamers, and I targeted on Assault Route, which tells you the horizontal angle of the bat in the intervening time of contact (or, within the case of a whiff, in the intervening time when the bat is closest to the ball). That appeared fairly easy to me. As with most bat monitoring metrics, it’s additionally a timing and site metric. You typically want to satisfy inside pitches additional out in entrance of house plate. For those who’re behind the pitch, your bat will probably be angled towards the other subject, and also you received’t pull the ball. For those who’re out in entrance of the pitch, your bat will probably be angled towards the pull aspect, and also you’ll pull it. A participant’s common Assault Route ought to correlate fairly nicely with their pull price, and the numbers just about bear that out. Assault Route and pull price have a .60 correlation coefficient:
A lot of the dots are clustered round that very clear trendline. Gamers who pull the ball extra are inclined to have their bats angled towards the pull aspect simply as you’d anticipate. What me was that inexperienced dot means on the backside. It belongs to Leody Taveras. I assume it is Leody Taveras, if we actually imagine in our graphs, which we in all probability ought to at this explicit web site.
Taveras has a reasonably low Assault Route, 4 levels to the pull aspect, however he’s acquired the third-lowest pull price of any participant on this chart. I couldn’t assist questioning how precisely he was doing that. Earlier than I dug into it too deeply, I used to be reminded that the truth that he’s a switch-hitter may need one thing to do with it. So I pulled the info once more, this time separating out all gamers by handedness. On the chart under, switch-hitters will seem twice:
The correlation isn’t fairly as robust, as a result of switch-hitters at the moment are damaged into two totally different gamers with two smaller samples (that’s how small-sample right-handed Patrick Bailey acquired means down on the backside). However there are two inexperienced dots now! They usually’re each Leody Taveras! From either side of the plate, Taveras appears like he ought to have a pull price that’s a bit above common, and as a substitute has one of many very lowest pull charges within the sport. At this level, I used to be formally curious, so I began poking round.
First, I particularly checked out Assault Route on balls hit to the other subject. For the reason that begin of bat monitoring halfway by way of the 2023 season, when Taveras hits the ball the opposite means, his common Assault Route is three levels towards the other subject. Solely 4 gamers in baseball have a mean Assault Route that’s much less oriented towards the other subject. Oddly, they’re all sluggers. Salvador Perez, Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Choose, and José Ramírez are all at two levels towards the other subject, and Austin Riley is tied with Taveras at three levels. Taveras is certainly not a slugger. He couldn’t be extra totally different from these 5 guys. So not solely is he doing one thing means totally different from most hitters when he goes the other means, however the one gamers out on that ledge with him have utterly totally different swings than he does. There actually is one thing bizarre about him.
Subsequent, I attempted trying particularly for balls hit to the other subject although the bat was angled towards the pull aspect in the intervening time. Simply 21% of balls hit to the other subject have the bat angled towards the pull aspect in any respect. I ran a Baseball Savant search, setting the minimal Assault Route at seven levels towards the pull aspect. Since bat monitoring began, 5.5% of Taveras’s batted balls have fallen into this class. Among the many 375 gamers with at the least 200 BIP over that interval, that’s the Eleventh-highest price. Elehuris Montero is the champion at a surprising 10.5%, however no participant who has put as many balls in play as Taveras has run as excessive a price as he has.
At that time, I made a decision to have a look at particular person balls that fell into this class: balls that go to the other subject although the bat is angled towards the pull aspect at contact. How precisely does this occur? Attempt to image it in your thoughts. If the bat is angled towards the pull aspect, and it’s being swung in that route anyway, how does the ball find yourself moving into the other way? There are two major solutions. Right here’s the much less widespread means:
That’s Taveras means, means out in entrance of a curveball, hitting it off the very finish of his bat. He cued it up so completely that if the top of his bat have been cupped, the ball may need simply gotten caught in there. In order that’s one technique to do it. The truth is, 21% of the balls we’re taking a look at, hit to the other subject although the Assault Route is seven or extra levels to the pull aspect, are squibbers hit off the top of the bat under 80 mph. That’s one technique to do it.
The opposite means is rather more widespread, and it appears like this:
Of those self same balls, hit to the other subject although the Assault Route is seven or extra levels to the pull aspect, 50% are labeled as popups, and 65% have a launch angle above 38 levels. Mainly, while you hit a ball in that bizarre method, it’s nearly at all times going to be both a cue shot or a popup. Leody Taveras taught me that.
This has quite a bit to do with Assault Angle. In case your bat have been completely parallel to the bottom, however angled towards the pull aspect, it might be just about inconceivable to hit the ball the opposite means. However while you pop the ball up, you’re not hitting it flush. You’re getting beneath it. And whatever the scenario, your bat is sort of by no means parallel to the bottom. In line with Statcast, the bat is angled downward on greater than 80% of swings. For those who simply have a look at popups, that quantity is up above 90%. About half of popups come on four-seamers and cutters, the place the batter has hassle catching up and swings just below the pitch. The remainder come on softer stuff, and people pitches are often low within the zone. I want you to do some 3D visualization in your head right here, as a result of my diagram isn’t excellent:
On the left is a superbly degree bat, parallel with the entrance of the plate. Now think about you’re angling your bat downward and also you get simply beneath the ball. In case your bat is angled towards the other subject or, as within the center instance, straight towards middle subject, you’ll seemingly simply foul the ball off behind you or into the other subject stands. When you angle it towards the pull aspect, nevertheless, it may well keep honest, bouncing up and towards the other subject. Please think about that the bat on the appropriate appears so funky as a result of it’s foreshortened, identified towards the primary baseman. Taveras can present us what that appears like in the actual world:
If his Assault Route have been zero, he would’ve fouled the ball up and into the stands down the third bottom line. He solely stored it honest due to his Assault Route of 18 levels.
Look, I don’t have a giant takeaway right here. I simply suppose this fascinating. I feel it highlights the best way that the angle of the bat informs even probably the most mundane batted balls. For those who’d requested me yesterday whether or not it’s potential to go the other means whereas your bat was angled towards the pull aspect, I might’ve had to consider it, however my first response would’ve been to say no. The bat and ball transfer by way of area so shortly that they are often laborious to trace, however the bat monitoring metrics assist clarify why precisely Taveras pops out so very, fairly often, and the way it’s even potential to hit a ball like that within the first place.