The Reds rotation has been an plain energy this season. The staff’s starters are third in park- and league-adjusted ERA, and their collective peripherals principally again it up; they’re tenth in park- and league-adjusted FIP. Hunter Greene has been phenomenal, Nick Lodolo has made some key command enhancements, and Brady Singer has added a secret ingredient, although his ERA has ballooned to over 5.00 since Michael Baumann wrote about him final month. However the pitcher main the staff in ERA is Andrew Abbott, and earlier than Baumann can write about his third Cincinnati starter this 12 months, I’d prefer to take a stab at puzzling out what’s gone proper for the 25-year-old lefty.
What if I instructed you that whereas Abbott’s fastball is coming in a couple of tick slower than regular and his arm slot is 5 levels larger than ordinary, he has one way or the other managed to barely enhance the pitch’s Stuff+ rating? You could be a bit confused, because the pattern for a lot of pitchers has been to try to decrease their arm slot in an effort to flatten out their four-seamers. A flatter strategy angle usually results in extra swings and misses on the prime of the zone and weaker contact, as batters have bother squaring up a pitch that appears prefer it’s rising above their bat. Abbott has at all times had a excessive launch level, however his 50 diploma arm angle is now the Eleventh-highest arm slot amongst certified left-handed pitchers.
Analysis into the connection between a pitcher’s arm slot and the form of their pitches has proven that as a pitcher’s arm slot rises, they’re capable of generate extra backspin. Extra backspin permits them to create extra induced vertical break (IVB). Put merely, IVB is a operate of arm angle. The opposite factor a couple of excessive arm angle is that purer backspin fastballs have a tendency to chop much less horizontally. Abbott has managed one thing considerably difficult along with his new arm slot:
Andrew Abbott, Fastball Traits
| 12 months | Velocity | Arm Angle | Vertical Launch Angle | Vertical IVB | Horizontal Break | Vertical Method Angle Above Common | Common Vertical Location |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 92.7 | 45.8° | -1.9° | 16.3 | 7.8 | +0.18° | 2.79 |
| 2024 | 92.8 | 44.9° | -1.9° | 16.3 | 8.9 | +0.06° | 2.80 |
| 2025 | 91.8 | 49.5° | -2.2° | 16.4 | 8.5 | -0.21° | 2.67 |
Regardless of the upper launch angle, Abbott hasn’t skilled a corresponding improve within the quantity of keep on his heater. The opposite odd factor is that he’s been capable of preserve the higher-than-normal horizontal break he generates with the pitch. As a result of he’s now throwing from a better slot, the pitch has a a lot steeper strategy angle, and the pitch’s cutter-esque form supplies a wider horizontal strategy angle.
Abbott’s four-seamer now stands out each as a result of it doesn’t carry as a lot and since it cuts greater than you’d count on. A “useless zone” fastball describes a pitch with unspectacular motion traits — a fastball that strikes as anticipated. Analysis has proven {that a} fastball’s useless zone is a operate of the pitcher’s arm angle, resulting in the idea of a dynamic useless zone (DDZ). Utilizing Alex Chamberlain’s calculated DDZ deltas (primarily based on work carried out by Max Bay), we are able to see simply how a lot Abbott’s fastball falls outdoors of what the batter expects primarily based on his arm slot:
Andrew Abbott, Fastball Useless Zone
| 12 months | Vertical Useless Zone Delta | Horizontal Useless Zone Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | +0.2 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | -0.4 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | -0.4 | +2.8 |
Bear in mind, magnitude is what issues when evaluating a pitcher’s DDZ, so Abbott’s damaging vertical useless zone delta isn’t essentially a nasty factor, although his +2.8 horizontal useless zone delta could be very a lot an excellent factor.
The outcomes have been optimistic to this point. His whiff charge on the pitch has improved from simply over 19% throughout his first two seasons to 25.2% this 12 months. The extra swings and misses are good, however he’s additionally turned his heater right into a contact-suppression monster. Simply have a look at a few of these key contact metrics from Statcast:
Andrew Abbott, Fastball Contact Suppression
| 12 months | Whiff% | xwOBAcon | Laborious Hit% | Barrel% | Squared Up% / Swing | Blast% / Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19.80% | 0.447 | 51.0% | 12.6% | 24.3% | 11.8% |
| 2024 | 19.40% | 0.395 | 43.2% | 11.3% | 25.5% | 9.4% |
| 2025 | 25.20% | 0.297 | 26.7% | 8.9% | 16.3% | 4.9% |
Abbott’s anticipated wOBA on contact when he throws his fastball is simply .297, seventeenth among the many 248 pitchers who’ve thrown not less than 100 four-seamers this 12 months. The hard-hit and barrel charges towards the pitch are miniscule. Essentially the most spectacular side of his contact administration comes from Statcast’s new bat monitoring knowledge. Opposing batters produce the second-highest common bat pace in baseball towards Abbott’s fastball, however they “square-up” the pitch on the third-lowest charge on a per swing foundation and so they produce a “blast” towards his heater on the fourth-lowest charge in baseball. In different phrases, batters actually gear up once they see Abbott’s fastball as a result of their eyes are telling them that the pitch could be very hittable, however they merely can not make stable contact towards it.
To attach this all again to the pitch’s form, I count on that this contact suppression is all linked to the quantity of horizontal break Abbott generates along with his fastball. Along with his excessive arm slot, a batter expects to see a straight four-seamer with tons of carry. As an alternative, they’re introduced with a chopping fastball that doesn’t have as a lot carry as you’d count on. Relatively than swing utterly below the pitch like they may if it had a ton of carry, they’ll usually put it in play, but it surely’s weak contact as a result of the pitch doesn’t are available in the place they count on it to horizontally. A lot of the contact he generates with the pitch is off the top of the bat or in on the deal with, resulting in weak fly balls and popups.
After all, location issues, too. Within the first desk above, I included common vertical location, as a result of location is a crucial part of vertical strategy angle. Abbott is finding his fastball a lot decrease within the strike zone this 12 months, which, alongside along with his larger arm slot, has contributed to his steeper strategy angle. He’s additionally been very constant along with his location on the outer half of the plate to right-handed batters:
As a result of the horizontal break on the pitch causes it to tail away from righties, his location is ideal for inducing weak contact off the top of the bat whereas avoiding the barrel if it finally ends up over the guts of the plate.
In case you have been fearful about Abbott’s dip in velocity, I’m glad to report that his heater has had a bit extra zip throughout his previous couple of begins:
A shoulder harm final August lower quick his 2024 season, and he entered spring coaching somewhat bit delayed due to it. I think that he was nonetheless ramping up throughout his first few begins of the season and that his velocity might be again to regular transferring ahead.
Past his fastball and the brand new arm slot, there’s one key change to the remainder of Abbott’s repertoire that might be contributing to his success. He’s getting about three extra inches of drop on his changeup whereas nonetheless sustaining the pitch’s above-average horizontal break. The whiff charge on that pitch has improved by about 4 factors, and the anticipated wOBA towards it’s simply .222. Extra importantly, the change in form has allowed him to distinguish the pitch from his fastball a bit extra:
Please excuse the colour variations from 12 months to 12 months within the plots above. In Abbott’s pitch plot from 2024 on the left, his changeup (the black blob) considerably overlaps along with his fastball (the blue blob). In 2025, on the appropriate, his offspeed pitch (the inexperienced weblog) is wholly distinct from his heater (the blue blob).
Abbott briefly mentioned the evolution of the pitch with Charlie Goldsmith of the Dayton Each day Information in late April:
It’s come a good distance. I talked with Nick Martinez and a bunch of the blokes about throw it, grips and all of that stuff. It’s lastly coming round. It’s to not the place I feel it may be but, but it surely’s gotten much more constant.
He has elevated his use of his changeup from 16.3% final 12 months to 21.3% this 12 months, and it has confirmed to be a potent weapon towards right-handed batters.
With a brand new arm slot, a misleading fastball, and an improved changeup in hand, Abbott has really elevated his arsenal. His stroll charge is somewhat excessive proper now, however his strikeout charge is 30.3%, and the contact suppression enhancements he’s made to his heater have nearly completely negated these extra free passes. The highest-line outcomes definitely communicate for themselves: Abbott has allowed a couple of run in simply certainly one of his begins this 12 months, and that occurred to be the one begin through which he’s allowed greater than 4 hits. So long as batters are unable to sq. up his fastball, we might be seeing a big step ahead from the younger lefty.