The Lengthy-Awaited Jonathan Aranda Breakout

You would be forgiven for not noticing Jonathan Aranda till now. The previous High 100 prospect spent the previous three years bouncing backwards and forwards between Triple-A Durham and Tampa Bay with out ever making greater than 143 main league plate appearances in a single season. He missed substantial time because of accidents final 12 months, and the vast majority of his time within the majors came about in September, as soon as the Rays — a group that doesn’t get a ton of mainstream consideration even after they’re profitable — had been out of the working. This 12 months, the lefty-swinging 26-year-old has taken over the lengthy half of a primary base platoon for the Rays, and thus far he’s been hitting the stuffing out of the ball.

After a trio of latest three-hit video games — Might 4 towards the Yankees, Might 8 towards the Phillies, and Might 11 towards the Brewers — Aranda is at the moment batting .342/.429/.553, adequate to position among the many AL’s high six in all three slash-stat classes. He ranks second in OBP and wRC+ (184), behind solely Aaron Decide. His common exit velocity, hard-hit fee, candy spot fee, anticipated batting common, anticipated slugging proportion, and anticipated wOBA all rank within the 94th percentile or above. Proper now, he seems to be just like the Rays’ subsequent All-Star, filling the void left by the commerce of Isaac Paredes, their lone 2024 consultant on the Midsummer Basic.

Such a success has been a very long time coming for Aranda, whom the Rays signed as a 17-year-old out of Tijuana, Mexico on July 2, 2015. Worldwide scouting director Carlos Rodriguez found Aranda whereas eyeing Cuban defector Randy Arozarena within the spring of 2015; after plans for a personal exercise with Arozarena fell by — he signed with the Cardinals however would later be traded to the Rays, in fact — native scouts informed Rodriguez to take a look at Aranda on the Toros de Tijuana academy. Rodriguez favored him nicely sufficient to signal him for a $130,000 bonus.

Aranda took his time climbing the ladder within the Rays group. He didn’t hit for energy previous to the misplaced 2020 season, and didn’t climb above A-ball till ’21. He broke out that 12 months to win MVP honors within the Southern League, hitting .325/.410/.540 — all tops within the league — with 10 homers in 81 video games after being promoted from Excessive-A Bowling Inexperienced to Double-A Montgomery. He grazed the Baseball America High 100 at no. 96 the next spring, and cracked the FanGraphs High 100 at no. 72 in mid-2022, when his scorching hitting at Triple-A Durham earned him his first call-up. Although he began scorching, a 2-for-38 end dragged his last line to .192/.276/.321 in 87 PA for the Rays. Then again, he took dwelling Worldwide League MVP honors for his .318/.394/.521 line and 18 dwelling runs in 104 video games at Durham.

Aranda didn’t actually have a defensive dwelling at that time. “The Rays have performed Aranda everywhere in the infield, and he’s such a poor palms and ft athlete that we truly desire him at second base somewhat than first, the place he’d should deal with the ball consistently,” wrote Eric Longenhagen in Aranda’s 2022 prospect capsule, which was accompanied by grades of 30 for his fielding and 40 for his throwing. “That is the kind of participant who you attempt to cover on protection on any given day, taking part in him when you could have an excessive strikeout pitcher beginning, or shoehorning him in at 2B/3B relying on the place the opposing lineup is least more likely to hit the ball.”

At Durham that season, Aranda made at the least 24 begins apiece at first, second, and third base, plus one other seven in left subject; he dabbled in any respect of these positions in Tampa Bay as nicely. He continued to shuttle backwards and forwards between Triple-A and the majors in 2023. He spent the ultimate six weeks of the season with the Rays, ending with a .230/.340/.368 (101 wRC+) line in 103 PA on the large league degree. With a robust exhibiting within the Grapefruit League in 2024, he appeared on observe to make the group out of spring coaching, however he fractured his proper ring finger whereas fielding a groundball in a drill on March 19 of that 12 months, and wanted surgical procedure to insert a pin. After a rehab stint, he joined the Rays in mid-Might however scuffled and was optioned to Durham in early June; practically three weeks later, he suffered a strained indirect, which sidelined him for 2 extra months. He lastly rejoined the Rays when rosters expanded in September, and with a scorching month that included 5 homers, a .507 SLG, and common taking part in time at first base, he completed at .234/.308/.430 (113 wRC+) with a 22.4% strikeout fee, a 7.7-point drop from 2023.

Supervisor Kevin Money was significantly impressed by Aranda’s September run. “He was getting on pitches a bit of bit extra, and being able to hit from the primary pitch on, and making the required changes inside the sport from what he discovered in his earlier at-bat,” Money informed the Tampa Bay Occasions’ Marc Topkin. To Money’s level, 5 of Aranda’s six dwelling runs had been towards beginning pitchers in his second or third plate look towards them.

After a winter spent engaged on his protection whereas taking part in for Obregon of the Mexican Pacific Winter League, Aranda gained the primary base job in spring coaching, bumping Yandy Díaz to common DH obligation. Up to now, Aranda has began 25 of the Rays’ 27 video games towards righties, however solely three of their 13 video games towards lefties, with Díaz and Curtis Mead accounting for the remainder. Six of his first seven hits this 12 months had been for additional bases, and he’s been raking ever since.

As Topkin advised within the aforementioned article, the most important think about Aranda’s breakout could also be the obvious: common taking part in time. The Rays have been awash in well-regarded infielders with offensive talent and positional flexibility comparable to Paredes, Díaz, Mead, Brandon Lowe, and now Junior Caminero. Even when a few of them have been tough across the edges within the subject, their bats have earned them taking part in time, and the Rays have discovered methods to make it work. So too with Aranda.

Aranda has a compact left-handed stroke, however he doesn’t have distinctive bat pace. Actually, his 70.1-mph common pace — matching final 12 months’s common — locations him in simply the twentieth percentile amongst qualifiers. Whereas his quick swing fee has elevated from 9.2% to 13.4%, he’s squaring up barely fewer pitches (25%, down from 28.1% final 12 months). He’s a disciplined hitter when it comes to his swing and chase charges (44.8% and 27.4%, respectively), and his breakout has been fueled by a dramatic enchancment in his swing selections, as measured by Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric. From 2022–24, Aranda positioned within the tenth percentile or decrease, however this 12 months he’s within the 88th percentile, and his high quality of contact has improved:

As famous, a variety of these numbers this 12 months rank within the 94th percentile or increased, together with his hard-hit fee within the 99th percentile, behind solely Shohei Ohtani, Rafael Devers, and Oneil Cruz.

These growing launch angles trace at Aranda’s success in getting the ball off the bottom. He had a 54.5% groundball fee in 2022 and ’23, however lower that to 50.5% final 12 months, and it’s now all the way down to 43.5%. Whereas his general pull fee has dropped from 48.5% to 37.6%, his pulled air fee has solely fallen from 20.6% to 18.8%, nonetheless a few factors above league common.

Pitch-wise, it’s helped that Aranda has seen the next share of fastballs this 12 months (63.3%, up from 58.6%). He’s annihilating four-seamers, hitting .379, slugging .724, and averaging a 97-mph exit velocity towards them. He does generally tend to whiff on excessive cheese; his 41.9% whiff fee on four-seamers within the higher third of the strike zone or increased is almost 19 factors above the league common, however he’s additionally slugging 1.077 when he connects with these pitches (three dwelling runs in 17 PA). The trade-off has been value it.

Defensively, Aranda has been wonderful at first base — definitely higher than Longenhagen’s 2022 evaluation. Take the small-sample metrics with loads of salt, however thus far he has 2 DRS and 1 FRV at first and is as much as 3 DRS and a pair of FRV in 445 2/3 innings there in 2024–25. In a league with a resurgent Paul Goldschmidt and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., he’s acquired his work lower out to crack the AL All-Star group, nevertheless it was simply two years in the past that Díaz and Arozarena had been voted into the beginning lineup. However whether or not or not he earns the popularity he deserves, his breakout has turned him right into a lineup centerpiece, one cause to pay attention to the Rays whilst they battle to return to competition within the AL East.