Wilyer Abreu Is Avoiding the Dreaded Wilyer Gained’t 12 months

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John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Pictures

I didn’t count on this from Wilyer Abreu. Don’t get me mistaken. I like Abreu and I spent a lot of the offseason writing about him. I even developed a (literal) sliding scale to tabulate simply how usually and the way intensely he dirtied his uniform. Abreu is a high-effort participant who completely deserved the Rookie of the 12 months votes and Gold Glove he bought final season. However I fearful about him too. Abreu has achieved nothing however hit and play nice protection since his 2023 debut, however he’s a lefty who’s been strictly platooned, and he solely lately reached a full season’s price of massive league plate appearances. He appeared like a regression candidate, and that was earlier than a gastrointestinal sickness price him a bit of spring coaching and several other kilos. The Purple Sox weren’t even positive he’d be prepared to begin the season, however he was and he’s raked from day one. After this sizzling begin, ought to we be all-in on Abreu?

First, I used to be fearful a bit about Abreu’s protection. I didn’t count on him to show right into a pumpkin. He actually was the most effective proper fielder in baseball final season by just about any measure you may consider, and I anticipated him to stay nice. Though he’s not a speedster, his instincts and energy have allowed him to make three three-star catches, two four-star catches, and one five-star catch this season. Nevertheless, a ton of his worth final 12 months got here from 9 assists, and as I wrote within the Positional Energy Rankings, that’s a unstable stat. You’ll be able to’t simply count on somebody to rack up assists 12 months after 12 months, if for no different cause than the truth that phrase will get out a couple of rocket arm like Abreu’s. These gaudy out totals would flip into smaller credit for conserving runners from taking additional bases. Or so I assumed.

Abreu has already tallied three assists, together with the one above, which is about as good a throw as you’ll ever see. General, he ranks within the prime 5 amongst proper fielders in DRS, OAA, and FRV. I needn’t have fearful concerning the protection.

The offense is the large query, although. Abreu put up a 135 wRC+ over a 28-game cup of espresso in 2023. He adopted it up with a 114 wRC+ in his full-season debut, and he’s now as much as 167. He’s by no means not hit, and now he’s hitting higher than ever. How a lot ought to we belief his early-season stats?

Let’s begin with the unhealthy information. Abreu remains to be being strictly platooned. Earlier this 12 months, I puzzled whether or not his glorious total displaying in 2024 would possibly earn him an actual shot at being an on a regular basis participant slightly than a platoon participant. He ran only a 48 wRC+ in his restricted pattern in opposition to lefties final season, however his excellence with the glove and on the bases might offset that some, and since the Purple Sox are bursting with thrilling younger outfielders, requiring a platoon associate is a little bit of a drag on the roster. Nevertheless, Abreu is being platooned much more tightly this season. After going through lefties simply 15% of the time in 2024, he’s all the way down to 12% thus far this season. Abreu has simply 17 PAs in opposition to lefties in 2025, far too little to glean any significant data, however for what it’s price, he has run significantly better chase, whiff, stroll, and strikeout charges in that small pattern.

OK. Protection is out of the best way. Platoon issues are out of the best way. Now we get to speak concerning the enjoyable stuff. Prepared? Right here we go.

Abreu is raking! Final 12 months, he ran a .336 wOBA off a .317 xwOBA. He appeared like perhaps he was getting a hair fortunate. This season, he’s bought a .416 wOBA and a .426 xwOBA. His BABIP is sort of an identical to final season’s. He’s not getting fortunate. He’s simply hitting means higher. His 1.8 WAR ranks twelfth amongst place gamers, and his 167 wRC+ means he’s the eighth-best certified hitter within the recreation. I had been ready to jot down this text till Abreu had his first hunch of the season. I didn’t wish to leap on the bandwagon too quickly. However that hunch has come and gone. It turned out to be brief and Abreu has gone proper again to mashing.

It’s nonetheless early. That is nonetheless only a sizzling begin. However seeing that blue line climb proper again up into the 200s is a really encouraging signal.

It’s time to look underneath the hood to see what Abreu is doing in a different way this season. The topline stats inform us very clearly the place to look. Abreu is putting out means much less, strolling far more, and slugging a ton.

Walks, Strikeouts and Slug

Season BB% Ok% ISO
2023 10.6 27.1 .158
2024 8.9 28.0 .206
2025 15.0 21.4 .286

With such big modifications in stroll and strikeout charges, we’d count on to see that Abreu is being far more selective on the plate, and his chase fee is certainly means down. Abreu swung at 28% of pitches outdoors the zone final season, however he’s down at 23% this season. In the meantime, his swing fee contained in the zone has climbed 10 share factors, from 68% to 78%. I didn’t label the GIF under, as a result of the distinction is straightforward to see. What’s blue and white and not purple throughout? Wilyer Abreu’s 2025 swing warmth map.

It’s the one with the purple concentrated within the coronary heart of the plate. Abreu is far more aggressive there and far, a lot much less aggressive under the strike zone and on the within nook. He’s making extra contact and doing extra harm a bit greater within the zone than he did final season. There’s a cause for that individual sample. Abreu has been far more picky in terms of delicate stuff. He’s bought a five-point drop in his chase fee total, however in opposition to breaking and offspeed pitches, that drop is sort of 16 factors.

Abreu is recognizing and spitting on delicate stuff like by no means earlier than, however he’s extra aggressive in opposition to fastballs and pitches contained in the zone. That doesn’t sound significantly fluky. That simply appears like somebody who’s improved his pitch recognition. In actual fact, it seems to be like his entire strategy has modified, which is shocking.

Abreu informed reporters earlier than the season, “Final 12 months was an amazing 12 months, so when it comes to the best way I put together, I simply needed to maintain all the pieces the very same. I bought actually good outcomes, so I’m not altering something.” However check out the screenshots under. The 2024 batting stance on the left seems to be very completely different from the 2025 stance on the fitting.

Based on Baseball America, the Purple Sox requested Abreu to shut his stance some once they bought him from the Astros within the 2022 Christian Vázquez commerce. Nevertheless, Abreu undoubtedly has a brand new, far more open stance this 12 months. His torso just isn’t fairly so vertical, however it’s nonetheless closed off. Solely his decrease half has opened up. Final 12 months, his entrance foot was turned aggressively inward like Juan Soto’s, however this season, it’s roughly perpendicular to the pitcher. He’s additionally ditched his leg kick in favor of a toe faucet. That’s plenty of modifications for somebody who didn’t plan on making any. Nevertheless it’s not simply how he seems to be. Abreu’s strategy can also be affecting his contact high quality. It’s time to dive into that .298 ISO.

After hitting 15 homers in 2024, Abreu already has 9. He’s within the prime 10 in homers, slugging, and remoted slugging. However right here’s the factor. His contact high quality is sort of precisely the identical because it was final 12 months. His ninetieth percentile exit velocity is up slightly, however his common exit velocity and hard-hit fee are practically an identical. His bat pace is down a tick, and if you happen to solely have a look at pitches contained in the strike zone, his exit velocity is decrease, too.

Abreu has come by all that additional energy by lifting the ball far more usually. His groundball fee has fallen from 34% to 27%. This season, 25% of his batted balls have been pulled within the air, up from 22% final 12 months. Not solely that, however when Abreu does pull the ball within the air, he’s added practically 2 mph of exit velocity and simply over seven share factors of hard-hit fee from 2024. On different kinds of balls, his exit velocity is down. To be clear, as a result of he hits the ball so onerous, Abreu doesn’t essentially have to tug the ball within the air to achieve success. A 91.5-mph common exit velocity and 50.6% hard-hit fee will play in all components of the ballpark. That’s doubly true at Fenway Park, the place lefties all the time have the possibility to dump the ball off the Inexperienced Monster for a double. Abreu did that 5 occasions final 12 months, however he’s solely hit one ball off the Monster thus far this 12 months.

We’re nonetheless coping with a small pattern dimension. Abreu has put simply 89 balls in play this season. His edge fee – the proportion of pitches on the perimeters of the strike zone – is among the many lowest in baseball. That’s a fluky stat that may make his swing choices look higher than they are surely. It’s in all probability associated to the truth that his contact fee contained in the zone has gone means up whereas his contact fee outdoors the zone is means down. That’s normally unsustainable, and it will probably disguise a number of flaws. Nonetheless, Abreu definitely seems to be completely different on the plate. He’s bought a brand new stance, he’s shedding delicate stuff, he’s targeted on pitches up over the center of the plate, and he’s attending to his energy when he pulls the ball within the air. These sound like real strategy modifications. His edge fee and speak to charges will possible steadiness out some, and once they do, they’ll improve his whiff fee and produce down his contact high quality numbers. However even after that occurs, this profile will provide loads to be enthusiastic about going ahead.



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