Bailey Ober wasn’t extremely regarded when our Minnesota Twins High Prospects record was revealed in December 2019. The towering 6-foot-9 right-hander was ranked no. 40 with a 35+ FV. And our prospect-analyst workforce on the time wasn’t alone in having comparatively low expectations for him. Baseball America’s 2020 Prospect Handbook didn’t embody Ober in its 30-deep rankings of the Twins system, nor did MLB Pipeline discover room for him in its personal high 30.
But regardless of the dearth of hype, Ober is now a mainstay in Minnesota’s rotation. A Twelfth-round select of the Faculty of Charleston in 2017, he made his main league debut in Could 2021, and he’s since gone on to log a 3.76 ERA and a 3.89 FIP over 95 begins comprising 510 innings. To date this season, Ober has toed the rubber seven occasions and has a 4-1 file to go along with a 3.72 ERA and a 3.85 FIP.
What did his FanGraphs scouting report seem like on the time? Furthermore, what does he give it some thought all these years later? Wanting to search out out, I shared a few of what Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel wrote, and requested Ober to answer it.
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“There’s little or no precedent for somebody with Ober’s velocity having large league success, nevertheless it’s clear why his mid-80s fastball has been dominant up to now.”
“That was the yr my velo dipped manner down,” Ober mentioned. “I used to be 92-94 earlier than that. My mechanics had been horrible. We had been making an attempt to work on some stuff and it simply went within the fallacious path. However I additionally had the perfect success I’d ever had, stats-wise. My ERA was [0.69] that season, which is why nobody was in a rush to vary something. I used to be capable of blow guys up with 88 mph.”
“His measurement and misleading overhand launch level create powerful angle on his stuff.”
“Yeah, I used to be throwing just a little bit extra excessive,” Ober defined. “I had just a little little bit of a funkier supply. My extension was enjoying an enormous a part of that. My fastball was getting on guys. They weren’t anticipating it to essentially keep true and carry, so it will beat them.
“In 2020, I clearly didn’t get to play due to the COVID scenario,” he added. “I spent that entire yr revamping, fixing the mechanical stuff and getting my velo again to the place it was earlier than. I used to be ready to take action, and was fortunate sufficient to get added to the 40-man roster.”
Requested if his launch level dropped down, the analytically savvy righty mentioned that it did, though he doesn’t know the precise quantity. In response to Baseball Savant, it dropped to extra of a three-quarters slot reasonably than the over-the-top launch level he’d had on the time of his FanGraphs scouting report. In 2021, Ober’s first season after dropping his launch level, his arm angle was 36 levels. His lowest seasonal launch level was 31 levels in 2023. To date this yr, it’s 34 levels.
“He misses bats on the high of the zone.”
“It was in all probability my method angle,” he reasoned. “My launch level, too, and the extension. With the ability to throw from that angle, at my peak… guys simply don’t see that. They weren’t used to it, so 88 possibly felt like 92-93-94.”
“Ober additionally has a plus changeup.”
“It’s nonetheless there,” he mentioned of his main offspeed pitch. “It’s a variation, however type of the identical grip. The best way I throw it… it’s only a completely different a part of the ball. It’s spinning on a unique axis, principally. But it surely’s been my greatest pitch since highschool. I had it right through the minor leagues, after which after I made these preliminary adjustments going into 2021, I type of fought it. I type of misplaced it my rookie yr, however then I acquired it again towards the top of 2022. I take advantage of my changeup loads.”
“It’d work in a aid function.”
“I suppose I’m [exceeding expectations],” Ober mentioned. “I believe that’s all the time been the case.”
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Earlier “Outdated Scouting Studies Revisited” interviews will be discovered via these hyperlinks: Cody Bellinger, Matthew Boyd, Dylan Stop, Matt Chapman, Erick Fedde, Kyle Freeland, Randal Grichuk, Ian Happ, Jeff Hoffman, Matthew Liberatore, Sean Newcomb, Max Scherzer.