The Season Is Possible Over for Triston Casas

The Boston Crimson Sox dropped to a .500 file over the weekend, however that little bit of unpleasantness was overshadowed by the lack of beginning first baseman Triston Casas to a critical knee damage. Working to first throughout the first of a three-game set towards the Twins on Friday, Casas collapsed all of a sudden whereas attempting to beat out a sluggish curler fielded by the pitcher, Joe Ryan. It was revealed on Saturday that Casas had ruptured his left patellar tendon, and on Sunday he underwent surgical procedure. With out Casas, the second-place Sox need to rethink their short-term choices at first base, ideally earlier than they fall too far behind within the AL East.

Boston might discover no trigger for optimism to place a optimistic spin on what occurred. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow got here proper out and mentioned the group doesn’t anticipate Casas to return in 2025. So, should you had been hoping the primary baseman may sneak again in time for the playoffs, that seems to be extremely unlikely.

So what does this imply for Casas? Effectively, from a baseball standpoint — relatively than a rehabilitation one, as I’m even much less certified to make medical pronouncements than Dr. Nick Riviera — coming into the season, ZiPS noticed Casas as a solidly common first baseman, with a projected slash line of .246/.350/.462, a 125 wRC+ and 1.6 WAR. That final quantity was on the low facet just because ZiPS projected him to play in solely 108 video games, partially because of his being platooned up to now but in addition owing to his historical past of accidents. I expressed some concern about his profile within the preseason due to his struggles with making contact.

Casas was off to a sluggish begin this 12 months, hitting .182/.277/.303 with a bleak 58 wRC+. That’s worrisome for any participant, however much more so for a platoon first baseman with out a lot defensive worth. All 27 video games he began this season got here towards a righty. April’s gonna April, however the dangerous begin did put a little bit of a damper on his long-term outlook. Crank out some projections, ZiPS-o-Matic!

With out factoring in his damage, Casas’ struggles to begin 2025 prompted a transparent drop-off in his next-five-years projections, although I don’t personally assume it was sufficient to essentially change our notion of him. He’s nonetheless a power-hitting first baseman you’d be blissful to have in your lineup, however he’s not a serious star to construct round. As an apart, ZiPS is much much less frightened than the Crimson Sox are about letting Casas face left-handers; he’s projected for a .226/.317/.395 line towards southpaws in 2026. That’s not ideally suited, nevertheless it’s additionally not an unusually massive platoon cut up for a left-handed slugger.

ZiPS is conscious of accidents, however primarily in hindsight; it components within the time missed after the actual fact as a result of I don’t like being the place of diagnosing present accidents. However on this case, as a result of we all know that Casas’ rest-of-season projection is nearly actually going to be zero plate appearances, I don’t thoughts breaking the foundations and telling ZiPS that 2025 is over and Casas missed greater than 100 video games with a knee damage.

As you may see, the season-ending damage has barely soured his projection. But when there’s a silver lining right here, it’s that Casas’ recreation isn’t actually primarily based on velocity, that means that ZiPS expects the general long-term affect of the knee damage to be much less for him than it might be for a sooner runner. Against this, after I run the identical projection for Jarren Duran after giving him a critical knee damage — Sorry, Jarren! — his projected 2026 WAR declines from 3.5 to 2.2 WAR.

Casas should be again in 2026, however the Crimson Sox need to reply the query of what to do at first base for the subsequent 5 months. Romy Gonzalez has been Casas’ platoon accomplice this 12 months, and at .327/.382/.449, he’s hit nicely in his 55 plate appearances as of Monday morning. However he’ll in all probability lose 100 factors or so from his present .421 BABIP, so it’s unrealistic that he’ll sustain that line. That mentioned, he has been making exhausting contact this season, with a hard-hit fee approaching 60%, up from 50% final 12 months, that means that his manufacturing just isn’t a stone-cold fluke, both. ZiPS tasks Gonzalez to publish a 107 wRC+ the remainder of the season, an affordable efficiency for a Plan B first baseman, however the Crimson Sox ought to be a bit extra bold than settling for cheap, particularly when the participant in query is extra of a substitute utilityman than a real first baseman.

However whom ought to they aim then? That’s the more durable query. Rafael Devers would appear to be the seemingly inside possibility, and the group hasn’t explicitly dominated that out, however I wouldn’t be shocked if the Crimson Sox determined to not change his place once more contemplating how he responded after they moved him off third base after signing Alex Bregman. On this case, maybe discretion is the higher a part of valor. Boston additionally doesn’t seem like inclined to quickly transfer to prospect Roman Anthony to first base.

Exterior the group, pickings are slim in the intervening time, as few groups have utterly given up on the season. Andrew Vaughn is in all probability obtainable, and his peripherals counsel that he’s carried out higher than his precise numbers throughout his brutal begin, however I’m unsure Boston actually desires a reclamation undertaking right here. The just lately demoted Jake Burger would end in the identical objection. If the Nats are occupied with buying and selling Nathaniel Lowe, he could also be the most suitable choice on the market, and he’s not a free agent till after subsequent season, although that may make them much less prone to transfer him. And the Brewers in all probability aren’t but at some extent the place they’d let go of Rhys Hoskins for reasonable. Anthony Rizzo continues to be a free agent, and Jon Singleton is now in Triple-A with the Mets, but when these are the 2 finest choices on the market, I feel the Crimson Sox could be higher off simply rolling with Romy. (I need to see Marcelo Mayer get a while at first, however that’s principally so I could make some type of lame Romy and Marcelo’s Excessive College Reunion joke.)

The damage to Casas doesn’t doom his future outlook an excessive amount of, nor does it shatter Boston’s probabilities to contend this season, however the Crimson Sox have to resolve what they need to do right here pretty rapidly. Positive, the affect of any first base transfer could be restricted, however even a marginal improve might make a distinction in a good AL East race.