Going from Cincinnati to Louisville would’ve seemed like a rip-roarin’ good time to Mark Twain. Riverine navigation, heartland American tradition, brown liquor and such. Feels like time to me, too. In all probability much less so for Alexis Díaz, who bought demoted to Triple-A on Thursday morning.
Díaz turned one in all baseball’s most respected high-volume, high-leverage relievers the second the Reds referred to as him up in 2022. And whereas a number of the juice from his unbelievable rookie season light, he was nonetheless closing video games by way of the top of 2024. Now, within the span of about 9 regular-season appearances, Díaz has gone from the highest of the bullpen ladder to off that ladder solely. I don’t know in case you’ve ever fallen off a ladder, however belief me, it’s not enjoyable.
An optimist may take a look at Díaz’s 2025 marketing campaign and level out that throughout 4 of his six appearances, he’s allowed solely a single hit and no runs. Sadly, the opposite two have been so unhealthy you’ll be able to’t actually play the selective endpoints recreation. Throughout the complete season thus far — a complete of six innings — Díaz has allowed eight runs, eight hits, and 5 walks.
Díaz is at the moment pulling a Joe DiMaggio: Extra house runs (4) than strikeouts (three). It’s truly worse than that: Over his final three appearances earlier than the demotion, Díaz allowed 4 house runs and bought only a single swinging strike.
The final straw got here on Wednesday, when Terry Francona put Díaz right into a recreation the Reds have been trailing 1-0 within the high of the ninth. Not a really high-leverage state of affairs, however an essential one: Blanking the Cardinals within the high of the inning would enable the Reds, who had the center of the order due up within the backside of the ninth, to tie the sport with a swing. Even when Díaz allowed one run, Cincinnati would’ve nonetheless been in place to mount a comeback.
As an alternative, the Cardinals batted round and plated 5 runs on back-to-back-to-back house runs. The Reds would most likely nonetheless have misplaced it doesn’t matter what Díaz did, however not even getting an opportunity there’s the sort of factor that eats at a staff with playoff aspirations.
In distinction to another struggling pitchers, the sources of Díaz’s woes are apparent. He’s at all times had what I’d name a really closer-y stroll fee. the stereotypical all-gas, no-brakes aid ace who’s solely sort of heard of the strike zone however will get away with it as a result of he by no means lets anybody put the ball in play? That’s what Díaz did his first yr or two within the majors. As a rookie, he struck out 32.5% of opponents and allowed a .129 opponent batting common; try this and no one will care in case you stroll a batter an inning.
But when the strikeouts dry up, it might get ugly in a rush. Which ends up in drawback no. 2: Díaz averaged 95.8 mph on his fastball as a rookie. In six appearances this yr, it’s all the way down to 93.3. That’s problematic for the apparent motive: Today, each schmuck on a 40-man roster can put 93 down the pipe within the seats. And it’s worse than that, as a result of with no corresponding lower in slider velocity, Díaz’s pitches are all coming in across the identical high-80s-to-low-90s velocity band. It’s like batting observe on the market.
This premature disaster places Díaz and the Reds in a clumsy place concerning his general profession path. Díaz completed final yr with precisely three seasons of service time, which put him in arbitration for the primary time.
Closers receives a commission in arbitration, and Díaz got here into his first listening to with case. He registered 75 saves throughout his first three main league seasons; solely 12 different pitchers throughout all of main league historical past can say the identical. The one two different energetic pitchers with 75 or extra saves of their first three large league seasons are Craig Kimbrel and Díaz’s older brother Edwin.
It’s rarefied air, and it bought Díaz a $4.5 million contract from the Reds. Whilst a comparatively inexperienced reliever, he’s Cincinnati’s third-highest-paid arbitration-eligible participant. And keep in mind, service time stops if a participant is demoted, so if Díaz doesn’t repair himself and get again to the majors within the subsequent couple weeks, it’ll push his free company clock again a yr.
In abnormal circumstances, a sensitive pinko like me, with a protracted historical past of griping about service time manipulation, could be up in arms about such a factor. In Díaz’s particular case, nevertheless, I’m not in the least fearful about when he’ll hit free company. If he doesn’t get his fastball again and begin lacking bats once more, he received’t make it there in any respect.
Provided that Díaz began the season on the IL with a hamstring damage, maybe there’s an argument that he ought to be going again there first. However this decline, in each velocity and outcomes, has been happening for a yr now.
It’s an enormous drag to see Díaz go down like this, however anybody who wasn’t no less than open to the opportunity of this occurring was delusional. Díaz is one in all 11 relievers who’s hit the next markers throughout his first two main league seasons: 30 whole saves, ERA of two.75 or decrease, Okay% of 27.5 or larger.
Previous Returns Not a Assure of Future Outcomes
| First Two Years | Subsequent 4 Years | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Participant | SV | Okay% | ERA | SV | Okay% | ERA | WAR |
| Craig Kimbrel | 47 | 42.4% | 1.75 | 178 | 40.7 | 1.58 | 9.0 |
| Félix Bautista* | 48 | 40.4% | 1.85 | 5 | 28.9 | 2.00 | 0.3 |
| Dick Radatz | 47 | 29.2% | 2.10 | 70 | 23.8 | 3.57 | 2.9 |
| Troy Percival | 39 | 33.7% | 2.13 | 132 | 27.7 | 3.83 | 3.6 |
| Jhoan Duran* | 35 | 33.2% | 2.15 | 25 | 28.2 | 3.24 | 1.4 |
| John Rocker | 40 | 31.9% | 2.37 | 48 | 27.6 | 4.22 | 1.4 |
| Neftalí Feliz | 42 | 28.5% | 2.42 | 45 | 20.4 | 2.61 | 1.5 |
| Alexis Díaz* | 47 | 31.2% | 2.47 | 28 | 21.1 | 4.76 | -0.3 |
| Roberto Osuna | 56 | 28.1% | 2.63 | 99 | 28.6 | 2.84 | 5.9 |
| Camilo Doval* | 30 | 29.6% | 2.66 | 67 | 28.9 | 3.65 | 2.2 |
SOURCE: Stathead (First two years)
*Nonetheless inside the “Subsequent 4 Years” part
Kimbrel had the great sense to get wobbly after he exited the jurisdiction of this desk. However Radatz fell aside shortly, and small marvel why: In 1964, his third season within the majors, he led the league in saves and in addition went 16-9 throughout 157 innings. He by no means posted a league-average ERA once more. Rocker and Osuna have been each completed within the majors after season no. 6, although in each circumstances that needed to do with private and ethical defects as a lot as skilled ones.
Even Percival, who’ll go down as one in all trendy baseball’s best closers, had some rocky years in his late 20s.
It’s irritating for Díaz, who in a best-case situation is out his nearer’s job and a pair million {dollars}. The Reds, in the meantime, are most likely not thrilled that they’ll must chase down the Cubs whereas their would-be nearer is in Kentucky discovering himself.
Extra typically, this ought to be a cautionary story for followers throughout the league. The bullpen is the most-scrutinized and least-predictable a part of a serious league baseball staff. Failures elsewhere on the squad is likely to be extra pricey to the operation as a complete, however they might come wherever inside a recreation and even go unnoticed. If a reliever blows a recreation, you’ll learn about it. It’s a demanding, thankless job, pitching in aid. Makes you perceive why so many pitchers want to start out.
Díaz’s multi-year collapse is yet one more reminder, if we would have liked one, that the legendary never-blows-a-save reliever merely doesn’t exist, particularly on a multi-year timeline. Whilst we find out about pitch design and method in minute element, the most important eggheads in baseball nonetheless haven’t discovered the best way to construct a dependable reliever.
Annoying, isn’t it? Twisting and squirming just like the proverbial spider dangling over the hearth, figuring out that even a dominant nearer may lose it the subsequent day. Higher get snug among the many peril, my pals, as a result of it isn’t going away.