Carlos Correa Is Protecting the GIDP Alive

Carlos Correa has grounded into six double performs this season. He doesn’t lead the league; that might be Junior Caminero, who has already racked up 9, placing him on tempo for an excellent 50 by the tip of the yr. If Caminero retains that up (he received’t), he would shatter the single-season document of 36, set by Jim Rice in 1984. Nonetheless, it’s Correa whose GIDP numbers I discover most intriguing.

Correa has at all times been liable to double performs. For the reason that day of his debut, 10 years in the past in June, solely 5 main leaguers have grounded into extra of them. Nonetheless, in 2023, Correa took issues to a brand new stage. He set a single-season Twins document by grounding into 30 double performs. He did so in simply 130 video games and 580 journeys to the plate. His 30 GIDPs had been probably the most by any participant in a season since Casey McGehee in 2014 (31) and probably the most on a per-PA foundation (min. 500 PA) since A.J. Pierzynski in 2004 (27 GIDPs in 510 PA). Adjusted for period, Correa’s GIDPs-per-PA price registered because the third highest of all time:

Correa’s traditionally pitiful GIDP efficiency in 2023 made what he did subsequent all of the extra fascinating. In 2024, he produced an equally historic turnaround season. He hit simply 5 groundball double performs, 25 fewer than the yr earlier than. Admittedly, he performed considerably fewer video games, however even on a price foundation, the distinction was astounding. By no means in his profession had he grounded into two-outers at a decrease clip. (Fast apart: Writers want synonyms, and in the event that they don’t exist, it’s our job to make them up. Prepare.)

Utilizing our nifty Season Stat Grid software, I discovered the final participant who decreased his GIDP whole by 25 or extra from one season to the subsequent: Billy Hitchcock of the Philadelphia Athletics, who grounded into 30 double performs in 1950 and solely two in 1951. It’s price mentioning that I set the enjoying time minimal to 1 measly plate look every season. In different phrases, the pattern included gamers who may need had tons of of alternatives to floor right into a double play one yr and none the subsequent. But, even from 2019 (a 162-game season) to 2020 (a 60-game season), the most important drop-off in GIDPs belonged to Starlin Castro, who grounded into 23 paired putouts as a full-time participant for the Marlins in 2019 and 0 in 16 video games for the Nationals the next yr. All instructed, between 1951 and 2023, 143 gamers apart from Correa had a season with at the very least 25 GIDPs, however none of them decreased that quantity by fairly as a lot within the subsequent marketing campaign. What’s extra, Correa improved his wGDP (Weighted Grounded into Double Play Runs) by 6.1 runs from 2023 to ‘24. Hitchcock performed about 50 years too early for wGDP, and as of this season, the stat has been retired, which suggests Correa’s +6.1 enchancment goes down as the most important year-to-year bump within the metric’s quick historical past.

What actually makes Correa’s GIDP antics over the previous few years so fascinating is the historic context during which they occurred. As you may need surmised, the explanation his 2023 stands out as one of many worst GIDP seasons of all time is that twofold terminations had been down across the league that yr. Much more amusing, the already-low price of GIDPs per recreation dropped off considerably in 2024. Certainly, it marked the fifth-lowest year-to-year decline on document. In consequence, main league hitters grounded into double performs on the lowest price in recorded historical past in the identical season that Correa alone grounded into 25 fewer double performs than he had the yr earlier than. Coincidence? Nicely, sure. Correa’s enchancment wasn’t practically sufficient to elucidate the league-wide development. Nevertheless it makes for a pleasant enjoyable truth.

Permit me to take a step again for a second. Like most baseball followers, I really like double performs when my favourite staff is pitching, and nothing makes me grumpier when my staff is as much as bat. Rooting curiosity apart, nevertheless, I believe double performs, even probably the most routine of them, are magnificent. As a Toronto resident, I went a very long time with out seeing a reside baseball recreation in 2020 and ‘21. I nonetheless keep in mind the primary double play I noticed in particular person after greater than two years away from the ballpark. It was probably the most run-of-the-mill double play possible and nonetheless a exceptional show of athleticism. Ben Clemens described my emotions completely in a current 5 Issues column:

“A well-turned double play, notably if the diploma of issue is excessive, is likely one of the most fun performs in baseball. It options so many individuals working in unison, there are often shut performs for at the very least one of many outs, and acrobatic pivots at second are simply visually pleasing, interval.”

Sadly, the fake pas de deux is dying. It’s a casualty of the trendy recreation that I believe is usually missed. For all of the conversations about disengagement guidelines, shift bans, larger bases, rising strikeout charges, declining on-base percentages, and the notorious launch angle revolution, I’ve heard far much less discuss in regards to the inevitable decline in GIDPs that’s inextricably linked to all these different adjustments.

A groundball double play requires a number of circumstances to be met. A batter should come to the plate with a runner on first and fewer than two outs. The batter should then hit the ball on the bottom into the ready glove of an infield defender. Extra strikeouts and fewer balls in play, extra fly balls and fewer grounders, extra stolen bases and fewer males on base, larger luggage and smaller defensive shifts – all of those scale back double performs. Whereas these developments weren’t new in 2024, all of them continued, and issues got here to a head.

The league-wide strikeout price in 2024 was the fifth highest it had ever been. The league-wide OBP was at its second-lowest level up to now 50 years, whereas the share of plate appearances that resulted in a single, a stroll, or a hit-by-pitch was at its lowest up to now 75 years. As well as, stolen base makes an attempt per recreation had been at their highest since 1999. Altogether, this resulted within the lowest price of GIDP alternatives per recreation (per Baseball Reference) since 2012 and, earlier than that, since 1998. What’s extra, the league’s groundball price was the bottom it had been since at the very least 2002, and the share of plate appearances that ended with a ball in play was the fifth lowest in recorded historical past. Thus, the league-wide GIDPs-per-GIDP-opportunity price was at its lowest since GIDPs had been first tracked in each the NL and AL in 1939. So, alternatives had been scarce and batters had been unlikely to hit a groundball double play even after they had the possibility to take action. The outcome? The league-wide price of GIDPs per recreation reached an all-time low, nosediving beneath the earlier nadir set in 1968:

I didn’t begin engaged on this text with any form of deeper message in thoughts. I needed to jot down about double performs as a result of I believe they’re cool. But, I noticed alongside the way in which that the declining groundball double play price shines a light-weight on a lot of what’s happening within the fashionable recreation. This one little stat does a heck of lots to encapsulate the state of main league baseball in the present day. To this point in 2025, the GIDP-per-game price has continued to fall, lowering from 0.66 to 0.63. That’s not fairly as dramatic because the decline from 2023 to ‘24. Nonetheless, if this holds, it could characterize the most important drop-off over any two-year interval since 1950-52. And this yr, we will’t even fake to pin it on Correa.

In 2023, Correa produced one of many worst GIDP seasons many people have ever witnessed. Then, he made one of many greatest year-to-year enhancements most of us have ever seen. I spent this previous offseason questioning how he’d comply with it up. It seems, it could take him all of 23 video games and 84 plate appearances to document extra two-bird, one-stone groundouts in 2025 than he did the complete season earlier than. Twins followers hoping he had lastly turned a nook are absolutely dissatisfied. As a substitute, he’s giving a complete new which means to the phrase twin killing; he ranks final on the staff with -1.04 WPA, and his groundball double performs account for greater than half of that.

Having grounded into six double performs earlier than the tip of April, Correa is on tempo to outdo his 2023 marketing campaign. That’s all of the extra (un)spectacular contemplating how a lot the league common price has dropped in simply the previous two years. Like I mentioned about Caminero on the prime, it’s smart to not put an excessive amount of inventory in early-season paces. In contrast to Caminero, nevertheless, we’ve seen Correa keep such a prolific tempo of twin demises over a full season earlier than. If he can do it once more in 2025, he might very nicely find yourself with the worst era-adjusted GIDP season of all time. Which may not be the form of historical past anybody desires to make, however at the very least he’s doing his half to maintain probably the most thrilling performs in baseball alive.