The Braves entered 2024 with excessive hopes for the approaching season, however their marketing campaign led to disappointing style. After making the playoffs by the slimmest of margins, they had been unceremoniously eradicated by the Padres. It’s now been greater than seven months since Atlanta’s early exit, and the calendar has flipped to a brand new season. The identical can’t be mentioned for the group’s fortunes.
Certainly, the Braves have began off this yr in a funk, and never of the nice Sly and the Household Stone selection. A season-opening collection in opposition to the Padres, adopted by a visit to Chavez Ravine for a matchup with the defending-champion Dodgers, left Atlanta with seven losses to start out the season and Reynaldo López on the IL for many, if not all, of 2025. A sweep of the equally underwhelming Minnesota Twins staunched the bleeding considerably, however one other wound opened up quickly after, as Spencer Strider strained his hamstring enjoying catch on Monday and returned to the IL only one begin after getting back from main elbow surgical procedure.
A 9-14 begin, even when coupled with the lack of López and Strider, doesn’t make 2025 a misplaced trigger, however it does complicate issues significantly. Let’s first look again on the ZiPS preseason projections for the NL East standings.
ZiPS Projected Standings – NL East (Preseason)
| Workforce | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% | eightieth | twentieth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 89 | 73 | — | .549 | 35.8% | 34.0% | 69.8% | 7.3% | 96.4 | 81.6 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 89 | 73 | — | .549 | 34.0% | 34.6% | 68.6% | 6.6% | 96.0 | 81.5 |
| New York Mets | 88 | 74 | 1 | .543 | 29.5% | 35.3% | 64.8% | 5.6% | 95.0 | 80.7 |
| Washington Nationals | 69 | 93 | 20 | .426 | 0.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 76.6 | 62.3 |
| Miami Marlins | 67 | 95 | 22 | .414 | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 73.8 | 59.0 |
The ZiPS projection system noticed Atlanta as the favourite, however solely by a hair, with the Mets and Phillies projected to be primarily as harmful because the Braves. There was vital daylight between ZiPS and the FanGraphs Depth Charts projections, which pegged Atlanta with a six-win margin over Philadelphia and a seven-win cushion over New York. A big a part of this distinction possible comes right down to methodology. Within the FanGraphs projections, for ease of calculation, innings pitched and plate appearances are static, that means that Chris Sale would all the time be projected to throw 182 innings, Ronald Acuña Jr. would all the time be anticipated to take 525 plate appearances, and so forth. ZiPS makes use of a Monte Carlo method, that means that in some projections, Sale would throw these 182 innings, however generally he would attain 190, or solely get to 150, or 100, or generally even 0. Telling ZiPS to match the FanGraphs enjoying time precisely would have given the Braves a 91-win projection and almost the identical margin of victory over their NL East rivals.
So, what’s the distinction? Merely put, ZiPS favored the Braves finest if issues labored out, however resulting from their lack of depth at most positions, noticed them as much less resilient than the Phillies or Mets ought to issues go flawed. Shedding López for a protracted stretch of the season is one thing going very flawed. The extent of Strider’s hamstring harm continues to be unknown, at the least publicly, however my private perception is that the group is unlikely to be aggressive together with his return, contemplating he simply missed a complete yr after present process an inside brace process to reconstruct his UCL.
Coming into 2025, ZiPS noticed the Braves with a .550 roster. Earlier than the beginning of play Tuesday, which is once I ran the projections for this piece, that had declined by 11 factors of successful proportion (the identical decline as on our Depth Charts) to a .539 projection. Once more, not deadly, however for those who consider the remainder of the season as a footrace starting now, the Braves are beginning off behind the opposite contenders, quite than even with them.
ZiPS Projected Standings – NL East (4/22/25)
| Workforce | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% | eightieth | twentieth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 93 | 69 | — | .574 | 55.4% | 28.5% | 83.9% | 9.5% | 99.2 | 86.4 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 89 | 73 | 4 | .549 | 31.2% | 37.9% | 69.0% | 6.6% | 95.6 | 82.7 |
| Atlanta Braves | 84 | 78 | 9 | .519 | 13.1% | 31.0% | 44.1% | 3.3% | 91.0 | 77.8 |
| Miami Marlins | 69 | 93 | 24 | .426 | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 75.6 | 62.3 |
| Washington Nationals | 69 | 93 | 24 | .426 | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 75.5 | 62.5 |
A whole lot of groups can be pleased with a 44% probability of constructing the playoffs, however for Atlanta, it represents the evaporation of greater than a 3rd of its playoff odds in simply three weeks. With the Mets and Phillies each faring properly in April, the Braves have seen an much more vital slashing to their odds to win the NL East, which is down almost two-thirds since Opening Day.
How a lot may a serious addition assist the Braves? How a lot may one other harm hinder them? To reply this query, I reprojected Atlanta’s playoff odds, altering the projected roster strengths in intervals of 5 proportion factors.
Braves Playoff Chance by Roster Power (4/22/25)
| Roster Power | Division Chance | Playoff Chance |
|---|---|---|
| .499 | 4.4% | 20.9% |
| .504 | 5.2% | 23.3% |
| .509 | 6.0% | 25.9% |
| .514 | 7.0% | 28.8% |
| .519 | 8.0% | 31.6% |
| .524 | 9.1% | 34.6% |
| .529 | 10.4% | 37.7% |
| .534 | 11.6% | 40.8% |
| .539 | 13.1% | 44.1% |
| .544 | 14.6% | 47.4% |
| .549 | 16.3% | 50.7% |
| .554 | 18.2% | 53.9% |
| .559 | 20.2% | 57.2% |
| .564 | 22.3% | 60.4% |
| .569 | 24.6% | 63.6% |
| .574 | 27.0% | 66.7% |
| .579 | 29.3% | 69.5% |
The underside of this chart highlights one of many issues with a state of affairs by which the Braves make a large acquisition: The mix of the present standings and the power of their opponents limits the utility of a giant commerce relating to successful the division. And that’s necessary on condition that successful the division is important to have an opportunity at skipping a coin-flippy first spherical of the playoffs. When you add 40 factors of roster power to the Braves, mainly the equal of buying Bobby Witt Jr. or Aaron Decide, which might not occur with out breaking many state and federal legal guidelines, Atlanta nonetheless wouldn’t get all the best way again to its preseason outlook. The acquire of 16 proportion factors of divisional chance is lower than you’d get from repeating the identical train with different disappointing April contenders, such because the Orioles (19 factors, 20% to 39%), the Twins (23 factors, 13% to 36%), the Cardinals (25 factors, 7% to 32%), or the Astros (29 factors, 39% to 68%).
Surprisingly sufficient, contemplating a midseason acquisition isn’t more likely to have that a lot of an impression, essentially the most logical method for the Braves would possibly merely be to attempt to get everybody wholesome, keep the course, and cross as many fingers as can be found.
Nonetheless, no matter whether or not or not the Braves swing a major swap, if they’re going to make a comeback, they’d higher get began quickly — with out Strider and Acuña, who continues to be at the least a couple of weeks away from getting back from his ACL surgical procedure. Even with one other matchup with the Dodgers set for the primary weekend of Might, ZiPS tasks these subsequent few weeks to be the softest remaining stretch of Atlanta’s schedule, with collection in opposition to the Rockies, Reds, Pirates, and Nationals. For instance this, I projected the NL East standings on Might 23 if every NL East group performs as much as its projected preseason document for the subsequent month.
ZiPS Projected Standings – NL East (5/23 State of affairs)
| Workforce | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% | eightieth | twentieth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 92 | 70 | — | .568 | 59.1% | 27.9% | 87.0% | 9.8% | 97.9 | 87.1 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 89 | 73 | 3 | .549 | 32.0% | 40.5% | 72.5% | 6.8% | 94.6 | 83.7 |
| Atlanta Braves | 83 | 79 | 9 | .512 | 8.8% | 28.5% | 37.3% | 2.3% | 89.0 | 77.8 |
| Miami Marlins | 69 | 93 | 23 | .426 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 74.3 | 63.1 |
| Washington Nationals | 69 | 93 | 23 | .426 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 74.4 | 63.5 |
In different phrases, if over the subsequent month the Braves they merely win as typically as they had been anticipated to again in March, they’d see their October possibilities deteriorate additional. They may nonetheless limp into the playoffs as a wild card like they did final yr, however that may be extraordinarily unsatisfying given their optimism getting into the season. No person ever wins a division in April, however you possibly can lose a division in April, and except a turnaround comes quickly, which will simply be what has occurred in Atlanta.