Ceddanne Rafaela Can Soar | FanGraphs Baseball

Ceddanne Rafaela can leap. He can sure up and over a excessive outfield wall to rob a house run. He can leap ahead to safe a ball that in any other case would have fallen out of his attain. He can spring up like a cat to show a double play after laying out for a catch. However none of these jumps are the type I’m referring to. I’m speaking about this:

Within the GIF you simply watched, Rafaela travels greater than 100 ft in lower than 5 seconds to rob Bo Bichette of additional bases. It’s a surprising catch. It could have been a troublesome sufficient play for the Gold Glove winner in proper area, not to mention for Rafaela coming over from heart. That ball had an anticipated batting common of .820 off the bat, and simply look how distant Wilyer Abreu is when he realizes all he can do is again off and let his teammate work his magic. You don’t want Statcast to inform you that’s a five-star catch, and it stands out even among the many 9 five-star catches we’ve seen this yr. It was one in every of solely three with a catch likelihood of 5%.

Rafaela’s slide into the outfield wall, the best way he raised his glove in triumph, and the truth that this occurred on the primary pitch of the sport make this an endlessly rewatchable spotlight. But, what actually makes this catch so spectacular is the sheer quantity of floor he needed to cowl earlier than he may even contemplate reaching out for the ball. It’s not that he crashed into the Wasabi check in proper area, however that he was anyplace near the signal to start with. In different phrases, it’s all about his leap.

Baseball Savant defines “outfielder leap” because the variety of ft above or under common that an outfielder travels within the correct route within the first three seconds after a pitch is launched, on performs with a catch likelihood of 90% or tougher (two-star or above). It’s a precious metric as a result of it measures a talent that’s nearly unimaginable for followers to guage with the attention check alone. Most of us watch most of our baseball on TV, a medium that normally prevents us from seeing the place the outfielders are standing for the time being every pitch is launched. Until you’re watching a well-framed replay of a stunning catch (just like the one above), it’s uncommon that you just’ll see an outfielder’s preliminary response to a ball coming his method. So, outfielder leap is one in every of my favourite Statcast instruments. If Rafaela frequents Baseball Savant, I’ve a sense it’s one in every of his favorites too:

Thus far in 2025, Rafaela is the league chief in outfielder leap, and it’s not significantly shut. At 6.2 ft above common, his leap is longer than the median top of a significant league participant. Consider it this manner: If Rafaela and a league-average outfield jumper had been each operating for a similar ball from the identical start line, it will solely take three seconds for Rafaela to achieve a lot floor that Mike Trout may comfortably lie down between the 2 outfielders. What’s extra, Rafaela’s common leap places him 1.4 ft forward of the subsequent greatest jumper, Johan Rojas. Greater than half of certified outfielders fall inside 1.4 ft of league common, in both route. Rafaela’s jumps have been no less than 1.4 ft higher than the these of everybody else. The small-sample-size caveat that we tack on to nearly each article in April definitely applies right here, but when we will marvel at what Randy Rodríguez is doing, we will marvel at Rafaela’s accomplishments too. Sustainable or not, nobody lucks into an ideal outfield leap. You’ll be able to both transfer that quick or you may’t. And Rafaela can.

Having mentioned that, Rafaela’s velocity is definitely one thing of an enigma. One cause I discover his leap numbers so fascinating is that, whereas he’s quick, I’ve by no means thought of him a first-rate speedster. His 28.3 ft/sec dash velocity ranks within the 84th percentile this season. He has compiled simply 1.8 baserunning runs (BsR) by means of 201 profession video games. In his prospect days, evaluators disagreed about whether or not his velocity was actually elite (70 FV) or nearer to plus (60 FV). Right here at FanGraphs, Eric Longenhagen gave Rafaela a 60 grade in 2023 earlier than upping it to 70 a yr later. As these differing grades counsel, measuring velocity is extra nuanced than one would possibly suppose.

Courting again to his debut season in 2023, Rafaela ranks 72nd in dash velocity amongst certified runners (min. 10 aggressive runs), placing him within the 84th percentile. In comparison with his fellow heart fielders, he ranks twenty third, simply barely touchdown him within the prime half of qualifiers on the place. Nonetheless, his common time from residence to first base ranks within the ninety fifth percentile of baserunners. That’s a pronounced distinction, particularly for a right-handed batter; most gamers whose residence to first rankings are considerably higher than their dash velocity rankings are lefties who’ve the benefit of their batter’s field being nearer to first base. Over the previous three seasons, solely 4 right-handed hitting outfielders have a house to first time as quick as Rafaela’s: Brandon Lockridge, Dairon Blanco, Byron Buxton, and Myles Straw.

In keeping with dash velocity, Rafaela is no less than half a foot per second slower than any of these 4. He trails even additional behind in “bolts,” which Statcast defines as any run that clocks in above 30 ft/sec. Lockridge and Blanco have bolted in additional than half of their aggressive runs. Buxton and Straw have bolted in about 20% of their aggressive runs. In the meantime, Rafaela has solely bolted twice in his profession. That’s lower than 1% of his aggressive runs. Since 2023, just one participant on the Baseball Savant leaderboard has a better dash velocity and a decrease bolt price: Cubs rookie Matt Shaw, who has solely performed 18 profession video games.

So, Rafaela doesn’t attain the identical most speeds as the fellows we consider as elite runners, however he nonetheless covers floor — on the bases and within the area – quicker than most different gamers. Fast reactions and a capability to keep up his velocity over a number of seconds, two issues measured by outfielder leap, may assist clarify why. One factor we will say for sure is that it doesn’t have something to do with operating environment friendly routes. Outfielder leap may be break up into three elements: “response” (ft lined in any route through the first 1.5 seconds after pitch launch), “burst” (ft lined in any route through the subsequent 1.5 seconds), and “route” (ft lined in opposition to essentially the most direct path to the ball within the first three seconds). Rafaela leads the league in every of the primary two elements. His routes, nevertheless, put him among the many backside 10 certified outfielders. That’s clearly not an issue. In actual fact, as Davy Andrews discovered a couple of years in the past, a excessive route rating is negatively correlated with OAA. Most of the time, operating as shortly as doable as quickly as doable is more practical than operating within the actual proper route. Rafaela is the proof within the pudding.

To that finish, if Rafaela has any type of velocity drawback, it may be getting the place he’s going too shortly. On this linked play from final season, he was about an inch or two previous the place he wanted to be when the ball reached his glove. It got here bouncing off his wrist, and inertia carried him into the wall. Right here’s an instance from this yr of one other play that despatched him crashing into the fence. He didn’t give himself time to decelerate, and a ball he may have performed off the wall become an embarrassing mistake:

Now comes the half you’ve been dreading: I’ve no alternative however to inform you that Rafaela’s early-season leap numbers are unsustainable. In 2024, he was top-of-the-line jumpers within the majors, very similar to he’s proper now. He ranked fourth amongst certified fielders. His common leap final yr? 3.3 ft above common. That’s solely barely greater than half of his present leap rating. Outfield leap dates again to 2016, and in that point, no participant (min. 10 alternatives) has ever completed a season with an outfield leap above six ft. No certified outfielder (extra two-star alternatives than crew video games divided by 5) has ever completed with an outfield leap above 5 ft:

With all due respect to Rafaela, it’s onerous to consider he’ll proceed to be this a lot higher than every other main league outfielder from the previous 10 seasons. That mentioned, his common leap may drop by greater than a foot, and he’d nonetheless have an opportunity to complete with one of the best outfield leap numbers we’ve ever seen from a professional participant. Since he emerged as a prime prospect through the 2022 marketing campaign, evaluators have had nothing however the highest of reward for Rafaela’s heart area protection. The crew at Baseball America particularly took notice of his jumps when rating him on the publication’s prime 100 listing in 2023, writing: “Rafaela’s nice jumps positioned him as top-of-the-line defensive heart fielders in professional ball.”

Rafaela lived as much as these excessive expectations in his temporary cup of espresso that yr. His common leap in 2023 was a ridiculous 6.9 ft above common in seven alternatives. That’s compelling proof that what we’ve seen this yr, in one other seven alternatives, isn’t only a fluke. As for his decrease leap rating in 2024, he has a reasonably good excuse. Rafaela solely began enjoying the outfield in 2021, and 2022 was the primary yr he performed greater than half of his video games in heart area. Whereas he performed a bit extra infield on the large league stage in 2023, he nonetheless spent the vast majority of his time within the outfield that season. In 2024, nevertheless, Rafaela performed extra innings at shortstop than at every other place, whereas additionally seeing time at second and third base.

Alex Cora acknowledged that what the Purple Sox had been asking of Rafaela was holding him again from reaching his full defensive potential. “We all know how good he may be at quick. We all know how nice he’s in heart area,” the skipper instructed reporters. “However the transferring round, it takes away from good jumps and being engaged.” Given the context, it appears Cora was speaking extra about Rafaela’s instincts struggling at shortstop than in heart. Nonetheless, the purpose stays: Taking part in a number of positions can take a toll on a participant. Now that Rafaela is solely enjoying heart area for the primary time in his profession, it’s not unreasonable to suppose he may get higher jumps than ever.

By 20 video games this season, Rafaela has already compiled 4 DRS, 3 OAA, and three FRV. He has been nothing in need of pleasant to look at within the outfield. Sadly, the identical can’t be mentioned of his efficiency on the plate. His self-discipline has been higher – his walks are up and his strikeouts are down – however he’s sending too many balls into the bottom. Over 74 journeys to the plate, he’s hit just one double, one triple, and one residence run. A Fortieth-percentile xwOBA suggests he might be extra productive going ahead, but it surely’s onerous to look previous his 67 wRC+. Will probably be even tougher for the Purple Sox to look previous once they have higher choices obtainable. If/when Masataka Yoshida returns from the IL and/or Roman Anthony forces his approach to the present, Rafaela’s glove may not be enough to earn him common enjoying time if his bat doesn’t come round. So, be sure that to understand his unimaginable jumps whilst you can, and hopefully, he’ll begin hitting sufficient that we get to take pleasure in his protection for an entire lot longer.