It wasn’t speculated to go down this manner. Oneil Cruz is 26 years outdated and nonetheless has as a lot expertise as nearly any participant in baseball. Right here’s what I wrote again in August, when the Pirates moved him to the outfield and I eulogized Oneil Cruz the Shortstop: “Cruz continues to be simply 25. I do assume it’s extra seemingly that he’ll be wonderful in heart, and probably even nice. Fairly merely, there’s extra margin for error within the outfield. He’ll take some dangerous routes and make some dangerous reads, however he’ll have the ability to profit from his velocity…” The early returns usually are not precisely making both Cruz or me look nice.
Cruz spent 23 video games in heart to finish the 2024 season, and the outcomes have been combined. His greatest grades got here from Statcast, which had him placing up a really encouraging 2 OAA and 1 FRV. Nevertheless, Cruz was credited with -3 DRS and -2.1 DRP. On a per-inning foundation, the latter quantity made him one of many worst heart fielders in baseball. Nonetheless, all these numbers included two errors, which loomed very massive in such a small pattern dimension. Outfielders have a tendency to not make that many errors, however Cruz was model new to the place. He was quick. He had a rocket arm. Even when all he did was reduce out the errors, he’d be on the very least a good heart fielder. It was cheap to imagine that he would solely get higher on the market.
He has not but gotten higher on the market. Cruz is presently sitting on -8 DRS, -2 OAA and FRV, and -0.1 DRP. Amongst all outfielders, these numbers respectively rank worst, third worst, fourth worst, and fifth worst. The superior defensive metrics work on totally different scales they usually usually disagree, however on this level they’re unanimous: Cruz has been one of many very worst outfielders in all of baseball this season. Based on DRS, Cruz is the least-valuable defender in baseball, full cease.
It begins earlier than the pitch. Based on Statcast, Cruz is getting a number of the worst jumps within the majors. Baseball Savant’s general leap metric says that Cruz is 3.1 ft slower than the common outfielder within the first three seconds. That ranks 62nd out of 67 certified outfielders. Furthermore, Cruz is under common in each single part of that metric. His response time, which measures how far he strikes within the first 1.5 seconds, is 0.7 ft under common, eleventh worst. His burst, which measures how far he travels within the subsequent 1.5 seconds, is 1.7 ft under common, ninth worst. His routes grade out as 0.6 ft under common, seventeenth worst. As I discovered just a few years in the past, response time and route are inclined to work in opposition. Gamers with nice response occasions have a tendency to not take good routes, however the tradeoff is price it as a result of they find yourself masking extra floor.
Not many gamers are under common in each, however there’s Cruz, the purple dot, precisely the place nobody needs to be. He’s not studying the ball properly off the bat, and even when he will get going, he’s having hassle taking a great route. The odd factor is his burst. Of the 4 metrics I discussed within the final paragraph, burst is the one most correlated with success. An outfielder can cope with a subpar response time or a subpar route so long as they actually get after the ball. This ought to be Cruz’s specialty.
To this point this season, Cruz has a median dash velocity of 28.4 mph, a step down from the 28.7 and 28.8 he averaged within the final two seasons, nevertheless it’s early and he would possibly get again up towards that borderline elite territory with a bigger pattern dimension. Both manner, he’s nonetheless very quick, even relative to his very quick cohort of heart fielders. It’s not terribly stunning that he’s not getting nice jumps but. He’s solely spent 38 video games within the outfield and continues to be growing his instincts on the market. However I anticipated him to be making up for that with uncooked velocity, and never solely is he not doing so, he’s falling additional behind. Take this play for instance.
This ball had a 95% catch chance. Cruz broke again as an alternative of in, so he had a horrible leap. Nevertheless, he obtained on his horse and really almost made up for that mistake with an amazing sliding catch. I anticipated to see extra performs like this, the place he’d make a mistake however cowl up for it with athleticism. Nevertheless, it’s one of many few performs I’ve seen the place he has actually appeared to be operating full velocity.
Even when Cruz catches the ball, he’s carried over the tendency he had when fielding popups as a shortstop. He drifts after the ball. I’ve watched each fly ball Cruz has caught this season, and it’s fairly uncommon to see him get to the suitable spot and camp out below the ball. Even on lazy fly balls, he tends to not discover his spot, however slightly to map out an intercept route.
He appears to be on cruise management throughout more durable performs too. Granted, Cruz’s lengthy, sleek strides usually make him appear to be he’s shifting slower than he actually is, however nonetheless, he’s not but shifting confidently on the market. He’s not going after the ball the way in which a great heart fielder would. The play under had a 65% catch chance. It will get caught two-thirds of the time, however you’d by no means know that given how distant Cruz was when it bounced off the warning observe.
He by no means actually obtained into gear, and regardless of the 65% catch chance, it by no means actually regarded like he had an opportunity. He’s simply not at a spot the place he can observe the ball and make the most of his velocity to exit and get it.
Lastly, Cruz continues to be making errors. He’s tied for probably the most in baseball with 4, twice as many as some other outfielder. A kind of errors got here on a fly ball deep within the hole. The play solely had a 60% catch chance, making it a three-star likelihood.
This was arguably Cruz’s greatest learn as an outfielder. He didn’t appear to get a late break, and he was closing on the ball onerous. Approaching each the wall and the suitable fielder at excessive velocity distracted simply him sufficient for the ball to clank off his glove. It is a play Cruz makes as soon as he’s extra comfy. Amazingly, the opposite three errors got here on groundballs, the precise performs you’d assume a shortstop would have the ability to nail.
In a manner, you might learn all of this as encouraging. Cruz continues to be getting dangerous jumps and taking dangerous routes. He’s nonetheless not comfy sufficient to chase the ball down. He’s nonetheless making errors. In different phrases, there’s quite a lot of room for enchancment. He simply hasn’t figured it out but. He received’t be this dangerous perpetually. He’d nonetheless grade out as stable proper now, based on some metrics, simply by reducing out the errors. Nevertheless, he’s been a middle fielder for some time now. It’s clearly not coming naturally to him, so when the development does come, we most likely shouldn’t anticipate it to be dramatic, burying any desires we might have had about watching him rework from iffy shortstop to wonderful outfielder like Jackson Merrill or Mookie Betts. Over 4 seasons, Cruz put up -9 DRS as a shortstop. He’s already at -11 as a middle fielder.
Lastly, Cruz isn’t going to remain this quick perpetually. He’s 6-foot-7 and listed at 240 kilos, and age isn’t at all times variety to gamers that huge. He’s nonetheless simply 26, however he’s certain for a nook quickly sufficient. Cruz has all of the instruments on the planet, and though it was disappointing to see him transfer off shortstop, the upshot of the transfer was that it rekindled for some time our hope that he would possibly lastly faucet into a few them. After these first few weeks, although, we should always most likely modify our expectations. Cruz continues to be one of the thrilling gamers within the recreation and it will be silly to rely him out solely, however proper now the case for optimism is fairly skinny.