Some days, we analyze all of baseball right here at FanGraphs, and possibly give you some instruments that may assist predict all of future baseball. Damage-aware depth charts, payroll matrices, prime prospect lists: You get the concept. Right now, nonetheless, will not be a type of days, a minimum of not for me. That’s as a result of after watching some movies of Tyler Soderstrom being very robust, I attempted to determine whether or not his early-season success will proceed.
Being very robust is a beneficial ability, a minimum of with regards to hitting a baseball. Folks don’t ooh and aah over Aaron Decide as a result of his title makes for a enjoyable fan part; they do it as a result of he hits the ball to date. There are numerous other ways to be good at hitting, however let’s be sincere with one another: Being actually robust is without doubt one of the finest methods. Chicks don’t dig the well-placed reverse discipline sinking liner, ? Or, in the event that they do, nobody made t-shirts about it.
How robust is Tyler Soderstrom? Properly, watch this swing:
I’m certain you’ve heard of taking what the pitcher provides you, going to the alternative discipline when the ball is away quite than attempting to tug it. I’m pretty sure that the folks giving that recommendation don’t imply that it’s best to flick your wrists and smash the ball over the fence at 100 miles an hour, although.
I gave you that GIF to begin issues off as a result of the informal energy shocked me after I noticed it. That swing didn’t look notably vicious, however it was. The pace of a person swing doesn’t inform us that a lot a couple of participant, however that one was 77.4 mph, and that’s understating it. Swings pace up as they lengthen, with pace measured on the level of contact. The purpose of contact on that ball was deep – that’s the way you go to the alternative discipline – which suggests much less swing size and thus much less swing pace.
That is perhaps Soderstrom’s most spectacular house run, however it’s not emblematic of how he’s been succeeding in 2025. And oh, has he been succeeding! He’s already cranked six homers en path to a .378/.440/.822 line; he’s two-thirds of the best way to matching his 9 homers from final 12 months in 1 / 4 of the plate appearances. And final 12 months wasn’t even a low bar to clear; he posted a 114 wRC+ with glorious peripherals.
What’s modified this 12 months? Properly, small pattern measurement is Soderstrom’s buddy, for one factor. He most likely gained’t preserve turning half of his fly balls into house runs, what with this being main league baseball as a substitute of gradual pitch softball. However there’s completely one thing new with him this season. Check out the places of each ball Soderstrom hit within the air in 2024:
It’s simple to think about the strategy that results in this sort of spray sample. The most effective-struck batted balls are to heart and left heart, resulting in most of his house runs coming in these areas. There’s a pile of ripped singles in proper discipline, each one a line drive. In different phrases, he was hitting the ball low and exhausting to the pull aspect, and excessive and exhausting to the alternative discipline.
It’s fairly simple to grasp why you wouldn’t need that blend of batted balls. Low and exhausting works higher to heart discipline, as a result of it’s exhausting to hit the ball out of the park there. Excessive and exhausting works higher down the traces, however on condition that it’s fairly troublesome to hit the ball excessive and exhausting the opposite approach, the massive hole in Soderstrom’s manufacturing was not sufficient pulled fly balls. You could be as robust as you need; it’s exhausting to excel if you hit your fly balls to the largest a part of the stadium.
Now, I confirmed you an reverse discipline house run to begin this text, however that’s probably not what Soderstrom has been about to date in 2025:
Quite than peppering the alternative discipline hole, Soderstrom is lifting and pulling. On aerial contact, his pull charge is up from 24.3% to 50%. Restrict it to fly balls particularly, and it’s up from 17.8% to 41.7%. League common for all aerial contact is 31%, and 26% for fly balls particularly. Take large grains of salt with all of this, due to the restricted pattern measurement, however it doesn’t take an aerodynamics PhD to grasp that this variation has helped him unlock his colossal energy.
How do you hit the ball to the pull aspect? There’s no a technique, however as a broad rule, inside pitches are simpler to tug and outdoors pitches are simpler to hit the opposite approach. That’s what Soderstrom is doing. He’s going after fastballs on the internal half this 12 months and taking fastballs on the surface edge as a substitute of attempting to punch them the opposite approach. His swing charge on outdoors fastballs is down by 15 proportion factors, whereas his swing charge on inside fastballs has elevated.
May all of this be an early-season mirage? Unquestionably. However I’m prepared to intuit actual intent right here, as a result of the magnitude of the change is big. Right here it’s in grid kind:
Fastball Swing% By Location
| Location | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Inside | 45.3% | 52.3% |
| Outdoors | 56.2% | 37.8% |
I drew a line down the middle of the plate and put all fastballs into these two buckets: contained in the midline or outdoors of it. Soderstrom hasn’t simply modified his swing charge or gotten just a few additional fastballs inside; he’s modified his conduct within the two zones in reverse instructions. That change makes excellent sense; Soderstrom has carried out poorly all through his profession when he swings at fastballs away, and nicely when he swings at fastballs in. He’s simply aligning his swing selections to raised match the place he’s at his finest.
Now that Soderstrom has made this variation, pitchers will certainly attempt to adapt to his new plan. There are two apparent counters: Work the surface of the plate with fastballs that Soderstrom is attempting his finest to not swing at, or pair secondary pitches with inside fastballs to entice dangerous swings. Meaning again foot sliders from righties, mainly. If a right-handed pitcher goals a fastball and a slider on the identical level on the internal a part of the plate, the fastball will keep largely true whereas the slider breaks towards a left-handed hitter.
Once more, it’s nonetheless early days, however Soderstrom has been attacking breaking balls that end inside way over in previous years. His chase charge on breaking balls off the within a part of the plate has roughly doubled from his earlier main league numbers. When you’re searching one thing inside, this curveball from Bryce Miller seems fairly tempting:
And on the lookout for a fastball to drive may make it more durable to put off an inside slider, even on a 3-0 rely:
It’s cool to see the results of an strategy change mirrored in so many alternative components of Soderstrom’s recreation. Trying inside for fastballs has modified his batted ball high quality, however simply as importantly, it’s modified which pitches are handiest at inflicting him to chase. He’s chasing these again foot breakers at practically double his profession charge regardless of reducing his chase charge on each different pitch/location mixture.
That’s the fantastic thing about baseball – Soderstrom has made a change that unlocked the large energy he’s all the time proven however hardly ever tapped into. That change has fully altered one of the simplest ways to pitch to him – new scorching spots, new weaknesses, the entire 9 yards. Pitchers don’t sit nonetheless whereas hitters change; they get to make changes too. Soderstrom may be capable to make his personal counter-adjustments, in fact. It helps that he has sufficient uncooked energy that he can nonetheless hit house runs to the alternative discipline even when that’s not his objective.
So, to place it one other approach: No, it doesn’t matter very a lot that Soderstrom has a 260 wRC+ 12 video games into the season. But it surely does matter how he’s doing it – and he’s doing it by altering his course of for the higher. That’s very thrilling for Soderstrom’s future and for an A’s lineup that wants as many good younger hitters as it could get.
Word: All statistics are present by video games of April 8.