An Uppercut Blow to the Braves’ Offense

In 2023, the Braves didn’t simply lead the league in principally each offensive class, they posted historic numbers. They adopted up that efficiency with a extra middle-of-the-pack exhibiting in 2024. A few of that downturn might be categorized as regression to the imply, whereas a few of it was undoubtedly injury-related, with key contributors equivalent to Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy, and Austin Riley lacking giant chunks of the season. Shifting ahead, these theories indicate {that a} wholesome Braves lineup ought to carry out someplace in between their traditionally nice 2023 and their exceptionally mediocre 2024. Up to now, nevertheless, the 2025 Braves have posted a gaunt 82 wRC+ as a workforce, creating anxiousness that 2024 wasn’t simply an unfortunate draw from the low finish of the vary of attainable outcomes, however somewhat one thing consultant of a brand new regular, a sign that the vary of attainable outcomes in Atlanta has shifted downward. After all, it’s too early to say for positive, particularly since Acuña hasn’t made his 2025 debut, however batted ball and swing information, in addition to modifications in opponent pitching technique, might provide perception into how pitchers have regained the higher hand when going through the Braves’ lineup.

If the intense discrepancy in outcomes between 2023 and 2024 actually was simply variation throughout the error bars round Atlanta’s true expertise stage, then we’d anticipate to watch some quantity of luck (good or unhealthy) of their batted ball outcomes, which might lead their anticipated stats to diverge from their precise numbers, however the desk under signifies their anticipated stats align fairly intently with actuality:

As an alternative, we are able to start to grasp the distinction in manufacturing by evaluating the standard and frequency of Atlanta’s contact. In 2024, the Braves made much less contact total. They walked much less; they struck out extra. And once they did make contact, their common exit velocity, hard-hit fee, and barrel fee inform us that they didn’t hit the ball as onerous or as cleanly as up to now. Their fly ball fee and elevated common launch angle point out they hit extra balls within the air. Typically that’s factor, however a rise paired with diminished manufacturing prompts a more in-depth inspection of the distribution of launch angles that led to the uptick within the total common, since in some unspecified time in the future, greater launch angles simply imply simply fieldable fly outs. Utilizing Baseball Savant’s launch angle classifications, the desk under reveals that the 2024 Braves hit the fascinating center band of launch angles at roughly the identical charges because the 2023 Braves, whereas the rise of their common launch angle is because of topping the ball much less and getting beneath the ball extra:

Going from topping the ball to getting beneath it’s buying and selling one taste of unhealthy for an additional. That by itself doesn’t clarify the general drop-off in manufacturing, but it surely would possibly point out a shift in how opposing pitchers strategy their matchups with Atlanta’s hitters. First, let’s have a look at the distribution of pitch sorts seen by the Braves lineup:

No main shift in strategy there. However what if we layer in location? To trace down modifications resulting in getting beneath the ball extra, we are able to slim our focus to vertical location. I’ll spare you the knowledge overload of a 40-row desk of pitch sort/location combos and simply spotlight probably the most notable year-over-year variations. In 2024, the Braves noticed extra fastballs (each four-seamers and sinkers) and changeups within the higher third of the zone. In the meantime, sliders and splitters (pitches that do are usually aimed decrease) shifted additional down and out of the zone fully. And although the magnitude of the modifications solely quantities to a shift in location for round 5% of the 20,000 to 25,000 pitches thrown to a lineup in a given season, it additionally represents a departure from how pitchers strategy different groups within the league. Final yr, Braves hitters had been extra more likely to see fastballs up within the zone and sliders under the zone than their friends on different groups, however in 2023 the other was true.

Correspondingly, the Braves’ runs above common per 100 pitches seen, damaged down by pitch sort, signifies that their largest dips in efficiency from 2023 to 2024 got here on four-seamers, sinkers, and sliders:

So what prompted pitchers to throw extra pitches that both purpose for the highest of the zone or miss the underside of the zone as they break downward? The reply is likely to be linked to the predominant swing path of the hitters in Atlanta’s lineup. One ingredient of Statcast’s bat monitoring information that doesn’t but function prominently on a participant’s Baseball Savant web page, however that does come via within the FanGraphs database, is assault angle. This measures the angle of the hitter’s bat relative to the bottom because it makes contact with the ball. So a optimistic assault angle signifies the hitter is swinging up into the ball, whereas a unfavourable assault angle means the hitter is chopping down on the ball. The common assault angle for a Braves hitter in 2024 was 1.15 levels, tied with the Cubs for third highest within the league, behind solely the Crimson Sox at 1.20 levels and the Mariners at 2.02 levels. (The league common assault angle final yr sat at 0.13 levels.) This tells us the Braves have a factor for hitters with uppercut swings.

An uppercut swing is just not inherently good or unhealthy, and it actually carries much less of a stigma than it did 10 or extra years in the past. Earlier than we might so exactly quantify the anticipated worth of fly balls relative to groundballs and strike outs relative to different kinds of outs, standard knowledge vilified the uppercut swing as a result of it introduced an elevated fee of swing-and-miss and subsequently led to extra strikeouts. But it surely additionally improved the hitter’s capacity to hit the ball within the air, so now that we all know simply how rather more precious a fly ball tends to be in comparison with a groundball, and that strikeouts are usually not as detrimental as beforehand thought, the uppercut swing has gained larger prominence.

As swings modified, so did the tendencies in how pitchers attacked batters. Within the late 2000s and early 2010s, the sinker was the fashionable fastball that pitchers might throw low within the zone to get fast groundballs. However because the uppercut swing caught on, pitches like sinkers on a downward trajectory had been simply lofted into the air by an upward slicing swing. Consequently, the four-seamer — with its rising motion, ideally thrown on the prime of the zone — took over because the fastball of alternative as a result of it was tougher for hitters to attach with at an optimum launch angle. Within the final 5 or so years, pitching methods have change into much less one-size-fits-all, as an alternative giving extra weight to the person strengths of the pitcher. Thus, hitters in the present day sometimes see a extra numerous array of pitch sort and placement combos, except the hitter has an clearly exploitable weak spot. And although an uppercut swing is just not an specific weak spot, it might change into one if a hitter’s assault angle turns into too steep, simply as rising the launch angle of a batted ball finally results in diminishing after which unfavourable returns.

Among the many most excessive common assault angles in Atlanta’s 2024 lineup (minimal 100 batted ball occasions) had been Adam Duvall (7.72 levels), Marcell Ozuna (3.11 levels), Albies (2.97 levels), Jarred Kelenic (1.93 levels), and Orlando Arcia (1.53 levels). Of this group, solely Ozuna managed a optimistic wRC+ (154), doubtless attributable to his capacity to hit the ball onerous at a fee 10-20% greater than the opposite uppercut swingers with whom he shares a clubhouse. The hitters with out uppercut swings additionally underperformed relative to their 2023, however they did so to a lesser diploma (excluding Acuña and Matt Olson, who had the furthest to fall after posting ungodly numbers in 2023) and nonetheless put collectively largely respectable seasons.

The league-wide assault angle numbers present it’s onerous to be a constantly good hitter with an excessive uppercut swing. The highest of the leaderboard is plagued by streaky hitters who strike out quite a bit — Joey Gallo (who’s not a hitter), Davis Schneider, Nolan Gorman, Jake Rogers, and so on. However there are some hitters who make it work, equivalent to Jose Altuve, Rhys Hoskins, and Isaac Paredes. Relative to different uppercutters, these hitters are inclined to strike out much less and range their assault angle extra, suggesting a capability to situationally alter their bat paths as wanted.

Since bat monitoring information is new, we don’t have assault angles for 2023, so it’s unclear whether or not the Braves’ swings had been extra stage that yr or in the event that they benefited from pitchers serving up favorable choices extra typically, or some mixture of the 2. Shifting ahead, even when the 2025 Braves preserve their uppercutting methods and pitchers proceed to problem them up within the zone, it’s unlikely that Atlanta’s offensive output will stay this grim. As famous above, throughout each 2023 and 2024, the Braves’ precise outcomes tended to converge intently on their anticipated outcomes. Up to now this season, the workforce’s wOBA sits at .288 with an xwOBA of .316, which is simply seven factors behind their xwOBA in 2024. That implies that at worst, we’re a repeat of final season. However the Braves did rent a brand new hitting coach this previous offseason, and so they’ve doubtless caught on to the methods pitchers have adjusted, that means we’re due for a reciprocal adjustment from the hitters, whether or not that’s creating a extra situational swing or studying to put off pitches that aren’t “their pitch.”