We’re About to Discover Out a Lot About Heston Kjerstad

Heston Kjerstad turned 26 in February, and he solely has 158 main league plate appearances. That’s greater than you or I had at that age, nevertheless it’s not lots relative to expectations. This was a extremely polished SEC nook bat who went second general 5 years in the past, although for causes I’ll get into, Kjerstad wasn’t your backyard selection no. 2 choose. After a token call-up on the finish of 2023, in 2024 he spent extra time in Triple-A (the place he posted a 160 wRC+ in 56 video games) than within the majors (the place he posted a wRC+ of 116, which isn’t lighting the world on hearth, however remains to be good, particularly for a rookie).

No person needs to get their shot due to an harm, however Colton Cowser busting his thumb on Sunday leaves a two-month gap that Kjerstad has to, has to, has to take advantage of.

In 2023, Kjerstad hit .303/.376/.528 in 122 video games throughout Double- and Triple A. He carried out even higher in 2024. Given his excessive prospect stats relationship again to his time at Arkansas, why has he spent so lengthy within the queue? Properly, Kjerstad’s draft place is somewhat deceptive. He got here out in 2020, when — I don’t know if you happen to bear in mind this — historical past occurred and the school baseball season acquired canceled after lower than a month. That June, a truncated draft went forward, and with little info on the prospects popping out, the draft was comically college-heavy and conservative. These gamers who did get drafted couldn’t play within the minors that yr, and between scouting deficits and developmental disruptions, loads of can’t-miss prospects from that class have didn’t pop.

If I’d been in Mike Elias’ footwear that night time, I wouldn’t have taken Kjerstad second general; I might’ve gone with Vanderbilt’s Austin Martin, and we are able to all see how properly that will’ve labored out. The perfect participant from the 2020 prime 10, up to now, has been Reid Detmers, who posted a 6.70 ERA final yr. The perfect participant from the primary spherical general has been Garrett Crochet, and if you happen to’re searching for different successes, the sphere thins out after Patrick Bailey, Jordan Westburg, and Austin Wells.

Furthermore, not even the Orioles thought Kjerstad was really the second-best participant within the draft; he signed for the seventh-highest bonus within the class, some $2.59 million beneath slot. About half of that financial savings went to a Florida highschool third baseman named Coby Mayo, whom Baltimore drafted within the fourth spherical and is now a top-50 world prospect on the fringes of the majors. Looks as if a wise transfer looking back.

Even in that cursed draft class, Kjerstad had it tougher than most. Shortly after the Orioles drafted him, Kjerstad was recognized with myocarditis and prohibited from endeavor strenuous bodily exercise — resembling taking part in skilled sports activities. By the point Kjerstad made his skilled debut in June 2022, he hadn’t performed a significant baseball sport in 25 months.

And but he killed it as soon as he acquired his probability. The final yr he was eligible for our Prime 100 Prospects checklist, 2024, Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin put a 70 on his energy and ranked him twenty fourth general. Cowser, who ended up leaping him in line, was two spots decrease on the Orioles’ crew prospect checklist.

So although Kjerstad’s skilled profession has been loaded with adversity not of his personal making, he’s earned a shot. And but he’s solely form of gotten it, as a result of he’s been concerned in one thing like a 12-way competitors for 3 spots within the lineup.

Along with Cowser, the Orioles have Ryan Mountcastle, a catcher time-share of Adley Rutschman and Gary Sánchez that’s going to finish up with one of many two DHing fairly continuously, and Ryan O’Hearn. A number of groups would welcome a lefty bopper to their lineup, even one with restricted defensive utility. The Orioles, just like the French knights and the Holy Grail within the Monty Python film, have already got one.

Shelling out for Tyler O’Neill actually provides to the nook outfield choices, however imagine it or not, the logjam is nowhere close to as dangerous because it was this time final yr. Again then, the Orioles additionally needed to make time for Austin Hays, Kyle Stowers, and Anthony Santander, all of whom are now not with the membership.

So Cowser’s harm has lastly, lastly, made Kjerstad a starter. He’s began two of Baltimore’s final three video games; the one exception was towards Crochet on Wednesday, after I guess supervisor Brandon Hyde didn’t wish to feed his younger left-handed slugger to among the finest left-handed starters within the league. (Issues couldn’t have gone a lot worse; Crochet pitched eight scoreless innings.) As a way to keep within the lineup as soon as Cowser returns, nonetheless, Kjerstad has to reply two questions that linger regardless of his productiveness.

One is accessing his sport energy. Kjerstad hits the ball exhausting. From the beginning of the 2023 season by means of Wednesday’s video games, 530 gamers have batted 150 or extra occasions; Kjerstad is 93rd in hard-hit price, which is fairly good. He’s one spot forward of Max Muncy the Elder, and the subsequent 20 spots on the checklist embody guys like O’Hearn, Lawrence Butler, Cal Raleigh, and Kyle Tucker. However he’s 191st in barrel price, on the head of a three-player group (with the now-retired Alex Kirilloff and Josh Bell) that I prefer to name the “Man, It Feels Like He Ought to Be Hitting Extra Dwelling Runs” Membership.

I’ve some rationalization for that, albeit in a comparatively small main league pattern: Kjerstad has a average case of Ryan Mountcastle Syndrome. Briefly: Typically, you wish to hit the ball exhausting, within the air, to the pull facet. That results in residence runs. While you hit the ball on the bottom, ideally that goes to the other subject. Grounders the opposite method are usually softer, which result in fewer double performs, and the extra of them you hit, the much less you’re going to get shifted.

Right here’s what Kjerstad has performed up to now in his large league profession:

That’s not a straightforward factor to repair, and you may inform as a result of we’re speaking about fairly good main league first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, and never two-time AL MVP Ryan Mountcastle. The hope with Kjerstad is that this can be a small-sample mirage. Certainly, Kjerstad’s minor league spray numbers have often been extra within the 40% pull vary, quite than the low 30s or excessive 20s.

The opposite lingering difficulty with Kjerstad is his capacity to regulate the perimeters of the zone. Kjerstad’s profession chase price is 34.1%; the main league common this yr is 28.9%, and has been in that neighborhood the previous three seasons. A hitter with plus or plus-plus energy can get away with a chase price like that if he can search and destroy inside the zone as properly, and his aggressiveness doesn’t push his stroll price down or his strikeout price too far.

In 2024, Kjerstad ran a 12.4% stroll price and a 26% strikeout price in Triple-A, which is nice. Within the majors, he wasn’t fairly pretty much as good — 8.8% stroll price and 28.9% strikeout price. But when he’s hitting 30 dingers a yr, that’s solely acceptable for a first-division starter.

The place issues crumble for Kjerstad is when the ball is across the fringes of the strike zone:

He’s whiffing lots, and when he does make contact, it’s not particularly productive. Small surprise, then, that on Thursday Crimson Sox starter Tanner Houck threw him mainly nothing however breaking balls and offspeed stuff, within the space the place he knew Kjerstad would have hassle dealing with it:

The primary 10 pitches Kjerstad noticed weren’t fairly. In his first at-bat, he whiffed twice en path to a six-pitch strikeout. In his second, Kjerstad fell behind 1-2, although a kind of strikes got here on a very malevolent sweeper that seemed like a batting apply fastball and dropped just like the S&P 500 proper as Kjerstad got here out of his footwear swinging at it. Ain’t no person hitting a pitch like that.

The purple dot in the course of the zone was the final pitch Kjerstad noticed earlier than Houck was lifted for a lefty reliever and Mountcastle was introduced in to pinch-hit in response. It was additionally the primary actually hittable pitch Kjerstad noticed all day.

Positive sufficient, Kjerstad hit it. He dumped it within the left heart subject hole at 100.3 mph for a 320-foot double.

That’s good hitting from Kjerstad, and an excellent outcome. But it surely’s not an amazing one. The perfect hitters in baseball can take that pitch and pull it. Right here’s how the very best left-handed hitters in baseball did final yr on related pitches:

Even the very best hitters within the league don’t pull this pitch on a regular basis; their collective spray charts are virtually completely even from pull to reverse. However once they pulled these pitches, they posted a collective .820 wOBA and a 21.2% HR/BIP ratio. When hitting to the other subject, their common exit velocity was greater than 12 mph slower (111.1 mph vs. 98.8); accordingly, the very best left-handed hitters within the league posted a 5.9% HR/BIP ratio and a wOBA of solely .294 on middle-middle and middle-up fastballs between 92 and 95 mph that had been hit the opposite method.

The distinction between a double and a house run is fairly self-evident. It’s additionally the distinction between hitter and a franchise hitter. If Kjerstad seems to be the latter, he’ll find yourself serving to carry the Orioles deep into the playoffs, given the crew’s wealth of place participant expertise. If he’s solely the previous, he’ll find yourself as commerce bait, similar to numerous prospects from this era had been earlier than: Stowers, Hays, Connor Norby, Joey Ortiz, the checklist goes on.

Over the subsequent two months, we’ll study lots about which destiny awaits Kjerstad: Is he an necessary piece, or is he merely somebody the Orioles can commerce to get an necessary piece at a distinct place?