Kyle Tucker’s Stroll Yr Is Off to a Robust Begin

Kyle Tucker’s last 12 months earlier than hitting free company is shaping as much as be a giant one. Traded from the Astros to the Cubs in a blockbuster deal final December, the 28-year-old proper fielder has but to play an everyday season recreation along with his new workforce at Wrigley Subject, but he’s settling into his new environment in spectacular style. At this writing, he’s using a streak of homering in 4 consecutive video games, one which has helped him to a distinguished spot on the leaderboards.

Tucker went hitless in his debut for the Cubs in the course of the Tokyo Collection in opposition to the Dodgers on March 18, although in his second recreation, he drove in a run with a bases-loaded stroll in opposition to Roki Sasaki, then added a ninth-inning double. Nonetheless, he was simply 2-for-16 by way of the season’s first 4 video games earlier than going to city on the Diamondbacks’ Brandon Pfaadt on Saturday, accumulating a single, a double, and a two-run homer in opposition to the freshly-extended righty in a 4-3 win. He adopted that up with a three-run homer off Arizona’s Joe Mantiply in a shedding trigger on Sunday, then on Monday went 4-for-7 in an 18-3 rout of the A’s of their Sacramento debut, with doubles off Joey Estes and Noah Murdock, a homer off Jhonny Pereda (the workforce’s backup catcher), and three RBI.

Tucker stored the streak going — and despatched me again to the MLB.com Movie Room to redo this supercut — by homering off Luis Severino on Tuesday night time; he later added one other double.

By means of Tuesday, Tucker is hitting .353/.450/.853 for a 252 wRC+. He leads the majors in WAR (0.9), is tied with Aaron Choose for second in homers (the Diamondbacks’ Eugenio Suárez has 5), shares the lead with these two in RBI (11), and ranks third within the NL in slugging and seventh in wRC+. Notably given his two-game head begin on the sphere, none of meaning a complete lot besides that he’s among the many handful of hitters placing up online game numbers in the course of the season’s first week, however he couldn’t have requested for a greater begin to his stroll 12 months.

The fifth total choose within the 2015 draft out of a Tampa highschool that can also be boasts Pete Alonso and Corridor of Famer Wade Boggs as alums, Tucker had a tough massive league audition with the Astros in 2018, however carried out a lot better in a September 2019 return. He was a key a part of six straight postseason groups, making three All-Star groups, successful a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger award, ending as excessive as fifth within the AL MVP voting, and serving to the Astros to a few pennants, together with a 2022 World Collection win over the Phillies. Throughout that run, Tucker emerged as top-of-the-line gamers within the recreation, and one of the constant. From 2021–23, he averaged 30 homers, 23 steals, and 5.0 WAR whereas hitting for a 138 wRC+, numbers that hardly moved various inches in any route — critically, we’re speaking two seasons of 30 homers and considered one of 29, two of 5.0 WAR and considered one of 4.9. His slash stats diversified a bit greater than these figures recommend, and he had a few near-misses when it got here to 30-homer, 30-steal seasons (30 homers with 25 steals in 2022, 29 homers and 30 steals in ’23), however you may set your watch by that man.

Tucker took his recreation to the following stage in the course of the first two months of final season earlier than fouling a ball off his proper shin on June 3. Initially identified with a contusion, he later revealed he had sustained a small fracture. He misplaced three months to the harm, taking a little bit of the shine off his .289/.408/.585 (180 wRC+) slash line, which in any other case represented profession bests in all however batting common. Even whereas enjoying simply 78 video games and taking 339 plate appearances, he nonetheless totaled 23 homers and 4.2 WAR. As Michael Baumann famous in Could, Tucker was extra disciplined than ever and hitting the ball within the air extra typically than ever. Swinging at simply 41.8% of pitches and chasing simply 16.8% — charges that each represented drops of over 5 factors from 2023 — he set a profession low in swinging strike charge (7.3%) and a profession excessive in stroll charge (16.5%, a spike of 4.6 factors above his earlier profession excessive). The selectivity served him nicely, as he additionally set new profession highs in fly ball charge (52.4%), pulled air charge (26.2%), and barrel charge (12.7%), whereas falling only a few whiskers quick in common exit velocity (91.1 mph). All of it would have been extra spectacular if he may have sustained that efficiency over 600 or so plate appearances, but it surely was a potent exhibiting nonetheless.

Notably with Alex Bregman hitting free company final winter, it could have made sense for the Astros to view Tucker as considered one of their cornerstones together with Yordan Alvarez (who’s largely confined to designated hitter) and Jose Altuve (who’s 34 and now a left fielder, having performed himself off second base). But the workforce, which had beforehand let stars Carlos Correa and George Springer depart in free company due to the wealth of expertise of their pipeline, not solely let Bregman slip away (although they did provide him six years and $156 million), they discovered themselves unwilling to contemplate paying the market charge for Tucker, maybe spooked by the inflationary results of Juan Soto’s contract with the Mets. So moderately than work on an extension, they as a substitute traded Tucker to the Cubs for a pair of third basemen, Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith, in addition to righty Hayden Wesneski. (They didn’t do badly in that regard, as Paredes took over third base from the departed Bregman and may have two extra years of membership management remaining after this season, Smith transitioned to proper discipline throughout spring coaching and is within the majors after simply 32 minor league video games, and Wesneski claimed the fifth starter spot.)

In December, each Tucker and Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer paid lip service to negotiating an extension (“I’m at all times open to speak and see the place that leads,” Tucker stated on the time), but when the 2 sides made progress in the direction of one, information of their discussions hasn’t surfaced. Clearly, they’ll proceed to speak, however previous the purpose of Opening Day, the belief is now that Tucker is enjoying for his massive free agent payday.

What may that seem like? I requested Dan Szymborski to whip up a ZiPS projection. Together with his typical generosity, Dan supplied two of them. First, right here’s one the place he described the system as “a bit of leery of him in the mean time since harm missed time predicts harm missed time”:

I’ve added Tucker’s preseason ZiPS projection and precise wage for the primary line; that 12 months is projected for him calling Wrigley Subject residence, whereas the remainder of it’s for a impartial park. The worth for the post-2025 projection involves an estimate of $203.6 million over 13 years, an AAV of simply $15.66 million. Clearly, that AAV might be greater with a shorter deal (say, $21.8 million over 9 years), but it surely hardly looks as if one which’s going to push any contractual envelopes, post-Soto.

Right here’s a second projection based mostly on the belief that Tucker makes 600 PA this season:

That’s not a dramatic step up, with a price of $224.4 million for 2026-38 ($17.3 million AAV) and $216.2 million over the primary 9 years ($24 million AAV). Notably provided that Tucker might be vying with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — who’s two years and two months youthful, however defensively restricted — for the title of the winter’s high free agent, that’s virtually definitely shy of what he’s going to get. It’s one of many risks of attempting to do these projections a 12 months out.

If Tucker can beat his 2025 projection, it has a ripple impact for the remainder of these years, however even to get to the $300 million stratosphere — to say nothing of the current $350 million estimate supplied by The Athletic’s Tim Britton — goes to take some form of gross sales job, notably provided that he’ll be heading into his age-29 season. Word that the listing of outfielders with $30 million AAVs is a brief one, consisting of Soto ($51 million), Choose ($40 million), Mike Trout ($35.54 million), and Mookie Betts ($30.42 million). Tucker isn’t perceived as belonging in that class of perennial MVP candidates (once more, he’s by no means completed greater than fifth within the voting), and enjoying in a Nationwide League with Soto and Shohei Ohtani, he has his work minimize out to hitch that tier, although he does rank ninth amongst all place gamers in WAR, and fourth amongst outfielders behind Choose, Soto, and Betts, for the reason that begin of 2020. Of the opposite lively $30 million-plus offers for place gamers, three belong to shortstops (Correa, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager), and 5 to 3rd basemen (Bregman, Nolan Arenado, Rafael Devers, Manny Machado, and Anthony Rendon). That’s it.

I don’t suppose it’s in any respect a provided that Tucker will get to $300 million, and even Dan, in our casual dialog concerning the above projections, solely prompt $270 million. Nonetheless, that’s a giant leap from what’s above, in all probability dependent upon Tucker exhibiting that his half-season 2024 efficiency was no fluke and promoting himself as an MVP contender. Tucker can do a superb little bit of subsequent winter’s gross sales job himself as long as he’s wholesome, and proper now, he’s actually promoting it.