One Extra Look On the New Taijuan Walker

I didn’t count on to be writing about Taijuan Walker this near Opening Day. I doubt that both he or the Phillies would have anticipated him to be within the rotation to begin the season. Final yr, Walker pitched his manner out of the most effective rotation within the Nationwide League; three Phillies starters obtained Cy Younger votes, and a fourth, Ranger Suárez, made the All-Star workforce. Simply earlier than Christmas, Philadelphia made an opportunistic commerce for Jesús Luzardo and plans to advertise Andrew Painter (the workforce’s high pitching prospect since, I dunno, Gavin Floyd?) round midseason.

Even with two years and $36 million left on his contract, the phrase “surplus to necessities” was invented for individuals in Walker’s place.

However when the top of March truly arrived, Suárez’s again was giving him issues. He’ll begin the season on the IL, and again into the rotation goes Walker.

It’d be underselling issues to say that Walker’s had a tough go of it in Philadelphia. He was signed in December 2022 to be a dependable no. 4 starter, and that a lot he achieved in 2023. However when the playoffs rolled round, the Phillies dispatched their first two opponents earlier than Walker’s flip within the rotation got here up, and in Recreation 4 of the NLCS, supervisor Rob Thomson opted to go along with Cristopher Sánchez within the first leg of a bullpen recreation.

Walker’s non-participation within the playoffs was a speaking level amongst followers and native media within the winter of 2023-24, nevertheless it shouldn’t have been trigger for concern in and of itself. Playoff baseball has modified dramatically up to now 15 years, and for many of that interim the Phillies had been so dangerous solely an actual masochist would concentrate. A no. 4 starter within the common season could be worthwhile with out being ok to pitch within the playoffs.

A number of the negativity round Walker isn’t his fault, however he didn’t make his life simpler final yr. In 2024, he had a 7.10 ERA and a 6.94 FIP in 83 2/3 innings. Out of 157 pitchers with at the least 80 innings final yr, Walker had the worst ERA, the worst opponent batting common, the worst WPA, the second-worst WAR, the second-worst FIP, and the third-worst Okay-BB%.

I’ve a substantial amount of sympathy for Walker’s plight, and I feel he received a nasty rap in 2023 for causes that had been largely exterior his management. However he was horrendous in 2024, past what any context may excuse. Philadelphia’s flaccid one-round exit from the postseason final yr soured the temper across the workforce, and Walker’s head was amongst people who followers most wished to see roll.

That didn’t occur, as a result of no person was going to commerce for a man with a 7.00 ERA and $36 million left on his contract, and whereas the Phillies shouldn’t throw good cash after dangerous, nor ought to they simply launch a man who has even a marginal likelihood of pitching successfully within the majors once more.

I don’t count on that a lot from Walker in his return to the rotation, nonetheless lengthy it lasts. However he’s attempting one thing totally different this yr (how may he not?), and it’s value exploring whether or not it may work.

First, I need to get into what went improper in 2024.

Walker has by no means been the sort of man who can blow hitters away simply by dumping fastball-slider across the zone thrice by the order. Spencer Strider he isn’t. Even when he was a lot youthful, pitching in Seattle and Arizona, Walker’s fastball velocity was solely common.

By the point he reappeared with the Mets in 2021 and 2022, Walker was throwing 5 or 6 pitches, together with a four-seamer, a sinker, and a splitter, which was among the best offspeed pitches within the recreation in 2022. The Phillies have an insatiable, bordering on indecorously avaricious, lust for pitchers who throw a number of fastballs. So not solely did they signal Walker to a four-year contract, they’d him lean into his cutter extra.

In 2023, Walker threw his splitter greater than every other pitch, and his three fastballs in roughly equal proportions. And it labored; he made 31 begins, gained 15 video games, posted a 4.38 ERA. Not spectacular, however completely acceptable for a back-of-rotation starter working behind Suárez, Zack Wheeler, and Aaron Nola.

Let’s go away Walker’s breaking pitches out of it for a second. For those who take his fastballs and splitter — which made up greater than 90% of his complete pitches thrown — Walker threw in two totally different velocity bands, and every band had two distinct pitches with distinct spin and motion profiles. You’re not going to get an enormous quantity of swings and misses that manner, at the least not throwing within the excessive 80s and low 90s, nevertheless it’s onerous to sq. that arsenal up.

In 2024, Walker’s stuff backed up throughout the board, and his command went a little bit wonky. He misplaced a little bit little bit of fastball velocity, however he began throwing his sweeper — certainly one of his worst pitches in 2023 — not solely tougher, however extra typically. Walker induced much less horizontal motion on his sweeper, and what’s worse, he additionally received much less horizontal motion on his cutter.

One factor led to a different, and impulsively, a four-pitch combine with distinct motion and velocity traits received smorshed into one five-pitch cloud of hittability.

As soon as every thing blends collectively, hitters don’t have to guage pace and motion a lot as they will simply rely on one thing within the excessive 80s coming in with a sure sort of motion.

What Walker’s accomplished to fight that’s to alter up his repertoire. In spring coaching, he’s been throwing a slider with gyro motion, as an alternative of a sweeper. The Phillies love a sweeper nearly as a lot as they love a multi-fastball man, however issues had been so dangerous final yr that Walker goes again to the slider he was throwing with the Mets.

The outcomes have been inconsistent. He was nails in his first three begins, incomes rave critiques, however received bombed in his final two. On Monday, his efficiency impressed Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Marcus Hayes to run a evaluation that led with Walker’s wage within the headline (all the time a nasty signal) and his postgame meal within the lede. (A good worse signal, by the Iron Legislation of Steve Simmons’ Fictional Sizzling Canine Stand.)

I believe that Walker’s preseason, like most, will find yourself being much less predictive and revelatory than his detractors would have you ever imagine. Will he keep in Philadelphia’s rotation as soon as the Phillies have 5 different wholesome starters? In all probability not. However I’d even be shocked if his ERA didn’t come down considerably from final yr. For 4 causes.

First, I’d take the underneath on anybody who posted an ERA of seven.10 the yr earlier than. It’s nearly unimaginable to be that dangerous two years in a row. Second, Walker is genuinely throwing tougher than he did final yr, even this early within the season. Does 92 mph vs. 91 mph make a world of distinction? Maybe not, however when that fastball velocity is being judged in opposition to a high-80s splitter, each fraction of velocity separation helps.

Third, Walker’s slider has comparable velocity and horizontal motion traits to final yr’s sweeper; possibly it’s a number of tenths of a mile an hour slower. However he’s getting six inches extra drop on it, which is large. That’s sufficient motion to offer his slider precise separation from his fastballs and splitter, which is able to make life tougher on hitters it doesn’t matter what’s coming.

And at last, Walker is getting a number of extra inches’ value of motion on his cutter, which is behaving about the best way it was in 2023. For me, it’s the weakest of Walker’s three fastballs, helpful largely to maintain left-handed hitters from sitting on his four-seamer. However final yr, opponents hit .435 off Walker’s cutter; at that time, you would possibly as properly not trouble throwing it anymore.

However in 2023, with simply these couple further inches of glove-side motion, and with out a stricken breaking ball wandering into its motion path, opponents hit simply .276 off Walker’s cutter. That’s not going to get GIF’d on Pitching Ninja, nevertheless it’s a helpful complementary pitch.

The Phillies in all probability gained’t must depend on Walker a lot this season, however based mostly on final yr’s efficiency, they in all probability would’ve most popular to not depend on him in any respect. If he can simply maintain them in video games till Suárez comes again and/or Painter comes up, Walker may steal one other win or two for his workforce. And that might make an enormous distinction in a detailed NL East race.