To Boldly Keep: Alejandro Kirk Indicators 5-Yr Extension With Blue Jays

It may not be lengthy earlier than Captain Kirk is the captain of the Starship Blue Jays. Alejandro Kirk made his MLB debut in September 2020. The one gamers who’ve been with the workforce for longer are Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, each of whom might go away in free company subsequent winter. If that have been to occur, Kirk would grow to be the longest-tenured Blue Jay simply days earlier than his twenty seventh birthday. He might find yourself holding that title for fairly a while, too. On Saturday, Kirk and the Blue Jays reportedly agreed to a five-year, $58 million extension. The deal, which begins in 2026, buys out the backstop’s closing arbitration season and his first 4 free agent years, working via his age-31 marketing campaign.

A 23-year-old Kirk burst onto the scene within the first half of 2022. He hit .315, slugged 11 residence runs, and walked extra usually than he struck out over 83 video games. His 155 wRC+ ranked sixth amongst certified AL batters, far forward of the next-best catcher. The truth that he was splitting catching duties, and thus DHing on the common, reduce into his general defensive worth, however nonetheless, Kirk ranked among the many top-10 AL gamers in WAR. Followers voted him to be the beginning catcher for the AL All-Stars, and the respect was nicely deserved.

But, Kirk has by no means seemed like that middle-of-the-order risk since. He produced a 95 wRC+ within the second half of 2022. He adopted that up with a 96 wRC+ in 2023 and a 94 wRC+ in 2024. To avoid wasting you some strenuous psychological math, I can inform you that averages out to a 95 wRC+ because the 2022 All-Star break. Meaning Kirk has been about 5% much less productive on the plate than the common hitter, however, to his credit score, nonetheless 5% extra productive than the common catcher. His 10.3% stroll charge is nice, whereas his 12.0% strikeout charge is elite. Solely seven batters (min. 1,000 PA) have a decrease strikeout charge in that span, and none of them boasts a stroll charge within the double digits. Sadly, the plus energy that made Kirk such a whole hitter within the first half of 2022 has vanished:

In his prospect days, Kirk seemed like a bat-first catcher. He raked all through the minors, displaying off plate self-discipline, energy, and, most of all, terrific bat-to-ball abilities. Conversely, neither his framing, his blocking, nor his throwing abilities have been something to jot down residence about. If that have been nonetheless the case, his 95 wRC+ over the previous two and a half seasons can be much more disappointing. Nevertheless, Kirk’s 2022 wasn’t only a breakout yr offensively. After making changes to enhance his framing and blocking over the 2021-22 offseason, he established himself as a premium defensive catcher. The plus energy he confirmed off early that season is beginning to look an increasing number of like a flash within the pan, however there may be real gold in his glove.

During the last three years, Kirk leads all catchers with 39 DRS, whereas his 35 FRV ranks third. His framing has been constantly glorious; his 26.4 framing runs make him the fifth-most-valuable strike stealer since 2022. Blocking was arguably his strongest defensive ability in each 2022 and ’23, with solely Sean Murphy racking up extra Statcast blocking runs throughout these two years. Kirk’s blocking numbers weren’t fairly as spectacular in 2024, however which may have been because of the changes he made to grow to be the most effective throwing catchers within the league. Kirk spent the 2023-24 offseason engaged on his arm, telling Sportsnet’s David Singh that though he wasn’t essentially throwing any tougher, his new program helped enhance his consistency. Lo and behold, Kirk ranked third in Statcast caught stealing runs and second within the stolen base runs element of DRS – a significant enchancment. If he did, in reality, sacrifice some blocking worth for throwing worth, there’s little doubt the trade-off was value it. In keeping with Statcast FRV, he was a top-10 defender in baseball final season:

Even when Kirk by no means once more comes near hitting the way in which he did within the first half of 2022, he has confirmed he could be a first-division common behind the dish. His 6.0 WAR since his All-Star look ranks ninth amongst major catchers, and a type of major catchers, Willson Contreras, is now not a major catcher. So long as Kirk maintains one thing near this stage of manufacturing via his age-31 season, his $11.6 million wage will likely be an absolute discount for the Blue Jays.

With that mentioned, there additionally exists a powerful risk that Kirk will likely be extra worthwhile in 2025 (and past) than he’s been for the final two-plus years. For one factor, he’s doubtless going to catch extra usually this coming yr than ever earlier than. His profession excessive in defensive innings is 775. That’s barely half the innings in a season. Now that Danny Jansen is totally out of the image, Kirk ought to get extra begins, which suggests extra alternatives to supply worth together with his glove.

It is usually value contemplating that Kirk may very well be a extra productive hitter in 2025 than he’s been for the final few minutes. Simply 26 years previous, he’s at an age when loads of gamers are nonetheless adjusting to the majors. Though his final 1,000 or so large league plate appearances have been mediocre, it could be silly to overlook simply how nicely he swung the bat at first of his profession. From his MLB debut in 2020 to his All-Star debut in 2022, he produced a 138 wRC+ in 520 plate appearances. That’s no small pattern measurement; that’s the primary third of his profession. It’s additionally a certified season’s value of reps, and throughout that stretch, Kirk had the identical wRC+ as Corey Seager and Mookie Betts. In addition to, it’s not as if his batting line seemed all that unsustainable. His .294 BABIP may need been slightly excessive, given his sluggish footspeed, however you possibly can’t give his BABIP any credit score for the 20 lengthy balls he socked over the fence. A .374 xwOBA (in comparison with a .366 wOBA) is additional proof that his success in that span was earned. If Kirk might do all that from ages 21-23 throughout his first 152 video games, it’s not absurd to recommend he might faucet again into a few of that offense in his mid-20s.

To that time, Kirk has notably underperformed his xwOBA since his All-Star first half in 2022. Whereas his .302 wOBA is 11 ticks beneath league common, his .321 xwOBA is seven ticks higher than that of the common hitter. Practically 150 gamers have taken as many or extra plate appearances as Kirk in that point, and solely 10 have a bigger hole between their wOBA and xwOBA. That would point out he’s due for some optimistic regression. Then once more, the longer a participant continues to underperform his xwOBA, the much less it looks like “unhealthy luck” and the extra it begins to appear like there should be one thing about his offensive profile that xwOBA can’t correctly seize.

Because the 2022 All-Star break, Kirk has been a a lot worse hitter. That’s no secret. He has made much less contact, and the contact he has made has been weaker and extra prone to go straight into the bottom. All of that’s mirrored in his anticipated stats. Nevertheless, what xwOBA can’t see is that simply 22.1% of Kirk’s batted balls within the air have been pulled (per Sports activities Data Options). Furthermore, Kirk was by no means a pull service provider. From 2020 via the primary half of 2022, he pulled 29.4% of batted air balls. That’s proper in step with league common. But, his air ball pull charge since then places him among the many backside 10% of hitters (min. 400 fly balls/line drives).

The great factor for Kirk is that none of this essentially means he’ll proceed to underperform his xwOBA. For one factor, xwOBA deliberately excludes spray angle, as a result of it’s not all the time very useful for predicting efficiency. What’s extra, the 13 hitters (min. 400 balls within the air) with a decrease air pull charge than Kirk because the 2022 All-Star break have a mixed .328 wOBA and an identical .328 xwOBA in that point. In different phrases, working a low pull charge on balls within the air isn’t a certain signal {that a} hitter will underperform his xwOBA. That may appear counterintuitive – pulled air balls are inclined to overperform their xwOBA, whereas non-pulled fly balls are inclined to underperform their xwOBA – however the mixed information from these 13 gamers is illuminating. None of that is to say that Kirk’s decreased pull charge isn’t a trigger for concern. Pulling the ball is an efficient factor! Even so, the huge hole between his wOBA and xwOBA would possibly nonetheless be proof that higher days are but to come back.

Kirk’s early-career success and underlying information assist clarify why nearly each projection system envisions him to be hitter in 2025 – and never simply good for a catcher. There may be actually a spread of expectations, from comparatively optimistic (ZiPS, 109 wRC+) to shockingly so (Steamer, 122 wRC+), however even the least-encouraging projection on Kirk’s participant web page (THE BAT X, 104 wRC+) appears bullish, contemplating his 95 wRC+ over his final thousand journeys to the plate. That’s an amazing signal for Kirk and the Blue Jays. He has already confirmed to be greater than worthy of his new contract as a 95 wRC+ hitter. The extra he hits, the extra surplus worth he’ll present.

Blue Jays catchers got here in at no. 4 on our positional energy rankings final week. Kirk himself ranks sixth amongst catchers with 4.0 projected WAR, in accordance with our Depth Charts. ZiPS is decrease on his bat than Steamer, however each projection fashions envision a 3-4 WAR season. So do OOPSY and PECOTA, with all 4 techniques rating him someplace between fifth and seventh amongst major catchers. If Kirk have been to play at that stage for the subsequent two years after which attain free company simply earlier than his twenty eighth birthday, he absolutely would have secured a tidier sum than $58 million. Certainly, ZiPS thinks he might have moderately commanded nearly twice as a lot:

So, there’s little doubt Kirk’s deal is workforce pleasant. The one query is simply how workforce pleasant it’s going to transform. He has an above-average baseline and an All-Star ceiling, but he solely must be a satisfactory beginning catcher for Toronto to get its cash’s value out of his contract. The Blue Jays can pay Kirk a number of million greater than they’d have needed to in his closing arbitration season, however in return, they’re getting his first 4 free agent years for $11.6 million a pop. That’s a Black Friday sort of discount. Simply have a look at how a lot the Jays are paying Anthony Santander. Like Kirk, Santander is a one-time All-Star and Silver Slugger winner with near 10 WAR for his profession. But, Kirk compiled that WAR in about half as many plate appearances, and he’ll be three years youthful than Santander when his contract begins. Even so, Santander will earn $13.6 million extra (in present-day worth) over the lifetime of his deal.

If I have been Kirk’s agent, I couldn’t have suggested him to take this provide. I’d’ve informed him he ought to maintain out for extra. Rogers Communications might afford it. That being mentioned, it’s not possible guilty a younger participant for selecting lifelong monetary safety for himself, his youngsters, and his youngsters’s youngsters, particularly when the one factor he’s sacrificing is the chance that he might additionally receive lifelong monetary safety for his great-grandchildren if he waited one other two years. So much can occur in two seasons to derail a promising baseball profession. On prime of that, the free agent market is all the time unpredictable. Barring a critical harm or decline, Kirk would have been one of many higher free brokers in a comparatively weak place participant class two winters from now. Nonetheless, groups may need been hesitant to supply him a multi-year deal, understanding that Raleigh, Adley Rutschman, and William Contreras might all be out there in one other 12 months.

The Blue Jays expressed their religion in Kirk once they traded Gabriel Moreno to the Diamondbacks after the 2022 season. They confirmed that religion once more once they flipped Jansen on the commerce deadline final summer time. This extension is the newest demonstration that the Blue Jays see Kirk as a key cog on their roster. He’s their catcher of the current, and now their catcher of the foreseeable future – which is nice, as a result of they don’t have a lot in the way in which of catching prospects who might take his place any time quickly. Kirk may not be the 26-year-old All-Star the Blue Jays have been most hoping to increase this winter. Nonetheless, there’s no strategy to view this deal as something apart from a win for Toronto.