As somebody who runs lots of projections, I’m used to being very incorrect. Of the roughly 4,000 gamers projected each season, some 800 or so will fail to satisfy their Tenth-percentile projection or exceed their ninetieth, that means ZiPS, and by extension Dan Szymborski, might be/look horribly incorrect. There’s nonetheless time earlier than the beginning of the common season to place myself into even larger jeopardy, that means it’s time for my annual checklist of favourite booms and busts. The idea for these is easy, in that these are my picks for gamers to vary how they’re presently perceived. Generally it’s due to a projection, generally due to a hunch, a intestine feeling, or simply one thing I feel projections won’t be capturing. Since we’re happening a limb right here, there might be some epic failures, and perhaps [prayer emoji] even a hit or two.
As typical, let’s begin with a fast evaluation of final 12 months’s picks.
Szymborski’s 2024 Growth Hitters
Szymborski’s 2024 Bust Hitters
Final season was undoubtedly not one among my extra profitable years, until I can persuade you that I merely by accident put Spencer Torkelson and Keibert Ruiz within the incorrect part when formatting my article, and the optimistic textual content you learn was meant to be sarcastic. For those who don’t purchase that declare, properly, let’s simply say that I’m getting all my incorrect picks for the last decade out of the way in which earlier, as a result of that’s completely how that works.
OK, sufficient about final 12 months. Listed here are my picks, beginning with the booms:
The Booms!
James Wooden, Washington Nationals
James Wooden already seems to be good. By the tip of the season, I feel he’ll look even higher, and we’ll discuss much less about his upside and extra about what he’s. ZiPS tasks a wRC+ of 125 and 20 homers from Wooden. I feel he’ll beat each of these by a minimum of 10 and make the All-Star staff. I wouldn’t be shocked if he will get a number of MVP votes, past only a stray decide by a hometown author. I feel Dylan Crews will escape as properly, however Wooden might be The Man in DC.
Nolan Schanuel, Los Angeles Angels
ZiPS is actually not on board with this one, seeing little likelihood that Nolan Schanuel’s energy improves considerably within the brief time period. That’s completely justified by the underlying stats — Schanuel undoubtedly hasn’t hit the ball very arduous within the majors — however I feel his fast-track to the large leagues is a mitigating issue right here. Schanuel solely performed within the minors for a pair weeks, so he doesn’t have a lot professional ball expertise in comparison with different younger hitters coming into their second full season within the majors; contemplating this, his stable plate self-discipline in opposition to MLB pitchers seems to be all of the extra spectacular and is a powerful basis to construct upon. He reportedly targeted on enhancing his bat velocity this winter, and whereas spring coaching is a restricted pattern measurement, he’s averaging a 94.5-mph exit velocity within the Cactus League, and none of his balls in play have been hit under 80 mph. I don’t assume he’s going to grow to be Aaron Decide or something, however I feel he’s able to producing extra pop than what we’ve seen so far. If he can slug even .420, that will be fairly beneficial given his on-base prowess.
Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros
You would possibly discover that regardless of ZiPS having its personal model of anticipated stats, it’s fairly excessive on Paredes after years of being a grumpy gus. The change is because of some modeling I’ve performed in the previous couple of years, attempting to extra precisely predict how gamers will do in several park configurations exterior of a primary worth adjustment and lefty/righty components. One of many larger changes is that ZiPS now seems to be at pull/spray tendencies and the way they work together with park results, and the most important beneficiary this 12 months is Paredes. ZiPS tasks that Minute Maid Daikin Park might be an amazing house for him, and I’ve to point out some religion in my creation, don’t I? I additionally like the concept of getting somebody make a “increase” checklist a 12 months after making the “bust” column.
Marcelo Mayer, Boston Purple Sox
It didn’t look like Marcelo Mayer would make the staff this shortly, however with Kristian Campbell having a weak spring, and the Purple Sox seemingly shifting away from the concept of enjoying Alex Bregman at second when Rafael Devers is 100% able to go, issues have shifted fairly a bit. Mayer’s an elite prospect, and he represents Boston’s future at shortstop reasonably than second base, however the Purple Sox wouldn’t be giving him this a lot time at second this late within the spring whereas optioning Vaughn Grissom in the event that they weren’t planning on having Mayer play the place to start out the season. If Mayer performs properly, Campbell emerges and Trevor Story stays wholesome, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Purple Sox go full fuel pedal on a Story commerce and switch to a Mayer-Campbell center infield by the point the leaves begin altering colours.
Joe Mack, Miami Marlins
That is an instance the place the projections and the scenario mix to make a stable case for me. Whereas Joe Mack solely simply made the ZiPS Prime 100 prospects for the primary time, he was additionally the catcher with the most important leap in his five-year projection. His .241/.322/.456 line for Double-A Pensacola doesn’t dazzle at first look, however the Southern League is a brutal place for energy hitters for the time being, with a league-wide .349 slugging proportion. Mack’s 22 homers truly led the league, with solely 5 gamers hitting 15 or extra. The Marlins want offense desperately, and Mack has a powerful arm, an necessary factor in a league with exploding stolen base totals. Both Mack or Agustin Ramírez will probably take Nick Fortes’ enjoying time in Miami quickly, and I feel Mack would possibly truly get there first, with Ramírez being the small a part of the tandem and enjoying first base or designated hitter.
Max Muncy, The Athletics
The Max Muncy on the Athletics hasn’t gotten an entire lot of press, presumably as a result of folks assume they’ve simply come throughout a decade-old profile from when Full Retail Worth Max Muncy was an A’s infield prospect himself. This Muncy is thought for his means to play shortstop and his reasonable energy reasonably than a formidable hit software, however he’s improved as he’s gone up the ladder, hitting .277/.374/.491 for a 117 wRC+ in Triple-A. That’s a really profitable line for a 21-year-old shortstop within the excessive minors. He’s not going to displace Jacob Wilson, however I feel Muncy might very properly push the Gio Urshela/Luis Urías pair off of third base in some unspecified time in the future this 12 months.
Vinny Capra, Milwaukee Brewers
Spring coaching doesn’t imply a lot, but it surely means one thing, and sudden energy will increase for a hitter are surprisingly sticky after small pattern sizes. That Vinny Capra has hit 5 homers this spring after eight within the minors all of final 12 months makes him a minimum of fascinating, and he performs third base, the place the Brewers don’t have a long-term answer. The lefty-hitting Oliver Dunn additionally performs third and has been excellent within the Cactus League, however Capra, who bats right-handed, has labored his manner into consideration for a platoon position in opposition to southpaws. ZiPS tasks Capra’s OPS to be 65 factors larger in opposition to lefties than righties.
Gage Workman, Chicago Cubs
Gage Workman’s bread-and-butter has been protection, and he’s by no means actually been anticipated to hit. However he’s continued to hit within the minors as he’s superior up the ladder, to the extent that I feel he’s extra helpful to the Cubs than both Vidal Bruján or Jon Berti. Workman received’t supplant any of the present starters, however he’s a kind of guys who I feel might accumulate 300 plate appearances whereas enjoying 4 or 5 positions, and quietly put up a 2-WAR season that no one notices. Contemplating how off the radar he was six months in the past, I’ll name this a increase.
The Busts!
Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox
I actually like Luis Robert Jr., and I actually hope I’m incorrect, however I don’t assume he’s going to get all the way in which again to his 2021-2023 stage of play. I feel final 12 months’s defensive drop-off displays the cumulative impact of the varied leg accidents he’s suffered during the last two seasons. He hasn’t made a lot progress in any respect towards enhancing his plate self-discipline or his contact charge, both. I feel he’ll rebound some, to 2 WAR or thereabouts, however I feel we’ll be calling him a possible star loads much less usually a 12 months from now than we’re proper now.
Triston Casas, Boston Purple Sox
Triston Casas is the everlasting breakout candidate, however I simply don’t see it. For one, he’s in a poor park for a lefty who must hit for lots of energy to have worth. He’s an unimpressive defensive participant at first, and as for his contact expertise, let’s simply say that he had a decrease contact charge in 2024 than Javier Báez did. I don’t assume Casas is horrible, however I additionally don’t assume he’s truly a foundational a part of Boston’s future like Devers, Mayer, Campbell, or Roman Anthony.
Josh Bell, Washington Nationals
Josh Bell’s drop-off in exit velocity was no fluke; you’ll be able to see it within the two mph he misplaced in his swing velocity from 2023 to 2024 and his deteriorating efficiency in opposition to fastballs. His late-season rebound final 12 months with Arizona could have generated some optimism that he nonetheless has one thing left in his bat, however I feel the Nats might be scrambling for a greater DH possibility by June in the event that they’re in rivalry.
Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers
Why not proceed my run of predicting terrible issues for gamers I like? Marcus Semien has come again from down seasons earlier than, however doing that at age 34 is completely different than at 30. I feel his drop in batting common and slugging proportion will stick greater than the projection methods do, and I’d put him down for 3-3.5 WAR reasonably than eclipsing 4 WAR once more in 2025.
Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals
I perceive why the Cardinals imagine in Jordan Walker. He possesses vital upside, and I’ve had him on a breakout checklist earlier than, however his progress has stalled over his first two years within the majors. He’s having a awful spring coaching, going 3-for-22 over 9 video games and posting a brutal 64.4% contact charge; he additionally missed a while with a knee harm earlier than returning late final week. I feel he’s again within the minors by Memorial Day.