CJ Abrams doesn’t wait patiently. That’s by no means been his factor. He rampaged his solution to the key leagues in 2022 at age 21, on a playoff contender no much less. Now, ought to he have been within the majors that 12 months? It’s straightforward, looking back, to query San Diego’s choice to name him up. He was beneath alternative stage as a rookie with the Padres earlier than they despatched him to the Nationals within the Juan Soto commerce, after which he was additionally beneath alternative stage with Washington that 12 months. However doing issues even earlier than they make sense has at all times been Abrams’ recreation.
To wit: You wouldn’t educate a significant leaguer to swing like Abrams does. He’s one of the aggressive hackers within the sport. His 53.1% swing charge – and 34.2% chase charge – are each among the many highest marks within the league. And this isn’t some case of premeditated, Corey Seager-style aggression, both. Everybody who swings extra ceaselessly than Abrams swings at extra strikes than he does. Seager chases seven proportion factors much less ceaselessly and swings at strikes seven proportion factors extra ceaselessly. Abrams isn’t enjoying six dimensional chess when he swings. He’s making an attempt to do that:
That’s absurd (complimentary). As destiny would have it, I used to be watching that recreation on TV when it occurred as a part of an article I hoped to put in writing on the opposing pitcher, Hayden Birdsong. I made a wierd sound when Abrams hit that ball, someplace between amusing and a pant. Have a look at his contact level once more:
How ludicrous was this mixture of swing choice and end result? For one factor, just one larger pitch resulted in a house run final 12 months. However that undersells it; there have been solely 4 house runs hit in opposition to larger pitches in your entire Statcast period. A type of got here in opposition to a place participant. Just one got here on a sooner fastball; none have been on a pitch farther off the plate. And never solely that, however he pulled it! Pitches that top and outdoors would possibly lend themselves to punching the ball the opposite approach, however to not an imposing blast like that one. Nobody on document has turned a ball like that into a house run like that aside from Abrams.
From that video, you’d assume Abrams was the second coming of peak Javier Báez. The mix of willingness to swing at one thing that removed from the zone and skill to show it into a house run is uncommon and pleasant. However sadly for Abrams, he’s not cranking pitches like that, or perhaps a little like that, day-after-day. Right here’s a chart of each ball he’s hit 100 mph or more durable within the air in his main league profession:
That’s a tricky chart to place in context, so I’ll provide you with one other one. Right here’s Báez, the patron saint of unhealthy swings, over the identical time interval as Abrams, 2022-2024. Neglect peak Javy; Abrams doesn’t even evaluate favorably to the present model:
And for a show of what it appears like when an elite hitter swings aggressively, right here’s Seager:
So was that top house run a purple herring? Simply name me Sherlock Holmes, as a result of the sport is afoot. Clearly, Abrams is a wildly aggressive swinger. The numbers don’t lie. However he’s not a bad-ball hitter the way in which that some swing-happy sluggers are. Right here’s one mind-set about it. Think about all of Abrams’s contact that didn’t come on pitches over the direct coronary heart of the plate. He put 247 such balls into play final 12 months; 280 main leaguers put not less than 100 of them into play. Out of that group, Abrams was 227th in wOBA on these batted balls, within the nineteenth percentile league-wide.
If I have been within the nineteenth percentile league-wide at one thing, I’d strive to try this factor as not often as potential. However in fact, Abrams swings at a ton of these balls. He’s twenty fifth out of 238 main leaguers who noticed not less than 1,000 such pitches in swing charge, the ninetieth percentile. In different phrases, he’s swinging at all the things however making little or no influence, that outrageous house run however.
The worst half? Abrams has plus energy – simply not within the outer reaches of the zone. With regards to wOBA on pitches that he places in play over the guts of the plate, he’s within the ninetieth percentile league-wide. In different phrases, he’s extremely highly effective, however solely in his nitro zone. That is smart to me intuitively. I don’t see a large energy hitter once I take a look at Abrams; he’s not constructed like Joey Gallo or Pete Alonso. He’s highly effective as a result of he generates a ton of swing velocity, however the supply of that’s extra quickness than brute drive. To make that work, he wants the ball to be positioned centrally.
If you take a look at it that approach, you may reclassify Abrams’ free swing method. He swings lots not as a result of he’s doing a lot with the unhealthy pitches, however as a result of he actually needs to swing at pitches over the plate, and so he swings lots total. These swings at unhealthy pitches are simply loss leaders, basically. He’s taking little L’s on unhealthy pitches in order that he can stack up massive wins on meatballs.
Sound affordable? It does, however something can sound affordable once I ignore numbers and pitch it to you qualitatively. The reality is that Abrams is so swing-happy that it hurts. Consider it this fashion: If we flip all the things into percentiles and make larger higher, Abrams is within the nineteenth percentile for harm on contact when he swings at mediocre pitches and the tenth percentile (larger means a decrease swing charge) for swinging at these pitches. His mixed percentile rating between these two classes is 29. That’s fairly poor. How poor? Listed here are the 10-worst hitters by this metric, together with their 2024 wRC+:
Choices and Outcomes (On Pitches off the Coronary heart of the Plate)
Abrams had the very best efficiency of the group by far. It’s so arduous to be a very good hitter in the event you swing this ceaselessly at pitches {that a}) usually get referred to as balls and b) you aren’t able to hitting arduous. You are able to do one or the opposite. Rafael Devers chases far too ceaselessly, however he crushes these pitches when he makes contact. Isaac Paredes does nearly no harm when he makes contact on pitches exterior the guts of the plate, however he doesn’t swing too usually in these areas, and the tradeoff works simply wonderful. However each? No approach.
It could be one factor if Abrams have been probably the greatest energy hitters within the recreation on pitches over the guts of the plate. He’s superior, little question, and much more bruising than his body and place would counsel – however he’s not Yordan Alvarez or Aaron Choose. He was forty ninth out of 172 gamers when it got here to complete run worth produced over the guts of the plate final 12 months. That’s actually good! It’s one spot behind Elly De La Cruz, three forward of Manny Machado, and 6 forward of Francisco Lindor. He’s forward of Salvador Perez on the subject of bombing away on pitches down the center, even.
The issue? He was a hundred and fortieth out of 172 on all the things else. It weighed him down sufficient that he was simply OK offensively final 12 months regardless of smashing 20 homers whereas placing out much less ceaselessly than league common. However the features are nearly definitely going to return on the off-the-center-of-the-plate finish of the equation. If he can enhance simply to center of the pack on all the things aside from the white sizzling heart of the strike zone, there are enormous features available. Taking just a few further balls does wonders to your OBP; it’s lots simpler to chase much less ceaselessly and stroll greater than it’s to all of a sudden hit for extra energy once you’re already hitting for a stunning quantity of energy.
Can Abrams make this modification? Does he even wish to? I don’t know the reply to these questions. I can inform you, anecdotally, that he’s swinging a ton in spring coaching, however he at all times swings a ton in spring coaching. Many gamers do. However I can’t inform you if Abrams goes to tamp down his aggression on marginal (or worse) pitches, as a result of I don’t understand how that change would have an effect on his method on drivable pitches, his bread and butter.
If hitting have been straightforward, extra folks could be good at it. This adjustment is tough, and it’s dangerous too. The present iteration of Abrams – aggressive to a fault, comparatively powerless in opposition to pitches off the middle of the plate – is already a league-average hitter. The extra urgent concern, from a right away enchancment standpoint, is protection. Statcast graded him because the worst defensive full-time shortstop within the majors final 12 months. He had a nasty season on the basepaths, too; he stole 16 fewer baggage than he did in 2023 whereas getting caught eight extra instances. Enhance on these two issues, and he may method All-Star standing with out bettering on the plate.
Altering his method on the plate may unlock new heights for Abrams – however there are not any ensures, and the rising pains could be sharp. Perhaps he actually does want that swing-happy method across the margins to ensure he takes sufficient swings on the cookies. Perhaps pitchers gained’t cooperate and he gained’t stroll extra regardless of a greater method. There are methods this could go fallacious.
But when we’re speaking about Abrams as a franchise cornerstone, we have now to assume greater on the offensive finish. His present mixture of expertise and method feels capped. If you give away a lot worth by swinging at unhealthy pitches and never doing sufficient once you put them in play, the mathematics simply doesn’t work. So in the event you’re relying on an Abrams breakout, take note of the fringes. If he’s both shedding these pitches or hitting them for further bases, one thing attention-grabbing could be occurring.