Ronald Acuña Jr.’s Eventual Return Comes Into Focus

Ronald Acuña Jr. did one thing we’ve by no means seen in 2023, turning into the primary participant to mix not less than 40 homers and 70 stolen bases in the identical season en path to NL MVP honors. Sadly, Acuña adopted up that spectacular season by doing one thing we had seen earlier than when he tore his anterior cruciate ligament. Having already torn his proper ACL simply earlier than the All-Star break in 2021, he tore his left one final Might 26. Whereas he was taking part in protection for the primary one and stealing a base for the second, the top end result was the identical: season-ending surgical procedure and a large gap within the Braves’ lineup. The group has taken his rehab extra slowly this time round. Acuña will begin the 12 months on the injured listing, and certain miss the primary month if no more.

When Acuña reported to camp in mid-February, the Braves mentioned that he wouldn’t play in any Grapefruit League video games. The 27-year-old slugger has since been cleared for some baseball exercise, and has been entertaining onlookers along with his long-distance house runs in batting apply, constructing a legend within the course of. In accordance to the Atlanta Journal-Structure’s Ken Suguria, Braves supervisor Brian Snitker claimed that one Acuña homer cleared a video board past left heart area at CoolToday Park, the group’s spring facility — a shot that will have traveled not less than 450 toes.

“[Hitting coach Tim Hyers] was saying he was within the cage the opposite day and [Acuña was] whistling that bat round like guys would do a Wiffle bat,” Snitker instructed reporters. “He’s in all probability as sturdy as he’s ever been proper now.”

Acuña has moreover taken stay batting apply in addition to at-bats as a chosen hitter in minor league video games on the again fields, main off every inning however returning to the dugout as a substitute of operating the bases. He’s additionally executed outfield and operating drills that hold him on a straight line, however hasn’t been cleared to do any slicing drills, not to mention play the outfield beneath recreation circumstances.

Whereas it was virtually a month in the past that Acuña described himself as operating at 90-95%, the Braves’ slow-play relies on expertise. Acuña tore his proper ACL on July 10, 2021 and had surgical procedure on July 21 of that 12 months. He returned to the lineup on April 28, 2022, 9 months and one week after surgical procedure, however handled lingering soreness within the knee all through the season, and didn’t drive the ball with the identical authority. He hit .266/.351/.413 (115 wRC+) that season; except for his batting common, these numbers had been the bottom of his first 5 seasons, although he went even decrease with final 12 months’s tepid begin (.250/.351/.365, 105 wRC+). He underwent surgical procedure final June 4, and so the nine-months-and-a-week mark — used merely for functions of comparability — was this previous Tuesday.

The Braves haven’t supplied an precise goal date for Acuña’s return to the lineup, however on Thursday, the general public acquired a bit extra readability when MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported, “In response to sources, it’s cheap to count on [Spencer] Strider to hitch the rotation someday in late April, whereas Acuña’s return ought to are available in early- to mid-Might.”

“When he comes again, we would like him to have the ability to go,” Snitker mentioned earlier this week. “We’re going to verify he is able to go after we do flip him free.”

The Might timeline Feinsand reported would put Acuña 11 to 11 1/2 months faraway from surgical procedure. The Braves are scheduled to play 31 video games by the top of April, and I’ve seen unsourced experiences that Acuña is or was concentrating on Might 2, when the group returns from a street journey to face the defending champion Dodgers at house for a three-game weekend collection. Might 10 is their 40-game mark, so a mid-Might return would imply lacking a few quarter of the season. Our Depth Charts projections are nonetheless a bit beneficiant by way of taking part in time, estimating him for 128 video games, 553 plate appearances, and 4.9 WAR. That’s a few six-win projection over a full season, so his outage will in all probability reduce into his worth for someplace within the 1.0–1.5-WAR vary.

For nonetheless lengthy he’s out, the Braves will really feel the affect of his absence. At the moment, 25-year-old lefty Jarred Kelenic and 28-year-old righty Bryan De La Cruz are vying for taking part in time in proper area, and seem prone to wind up in a platoon or job share. Based mostly on their current performances, it’s not probably the most encouraging mixture. Kelenic ranked fifth on our High 100 Prospects listing in 2021, however save for a 105-game stretch in 2023 that was interrupted by a damaged left foot attributable to him kicking a Gatorade cooler in frustration, he’s been horrible within the majors. Acquired through commerce with the Mariners in December 2023, he set profession highs with 131 video games and 15 homers final 12 months, however his .231/.286/.393 (86 wRC+) efficiency was properly in need of the .253/.327/.419 (109 wRC+) line he put up in ’23. Platoon-wise, he hit for a 95 wRC+ in 377 PA in opposition to righties final 12 months and owns a profession mark of 96, in comparison with a 41 wRC+ in 72 PA in opposition to lefties and a 58 profession mark. Based mostly on these numbers, it’s malpractice not to platoon him.

De La Cruz doesn’t have the prospect pedigree of Kelenic, however his -1.2 WAR final 12 months — first with the Marlins after which the Pirates after a July 30 commerce — was the bottom of any batting title qualifier, although merely the eighth-lowest of anybody with not less than 50 PA; most groups have the sense to rein in anybody struggling that mightily, however the Marlins and Pirates saved operating him on the market. He hit simply .233/.271/.384 with 21 homers, which additionally gave him the doubtful distinction of posting the majors’ lowest wRC+ (77) of any participant with not less than 20 bombs. Like Kelenic, De La Cruz was inside hailing distance of league common when he had the platoon benefit, posting a 99 wRC+ in 188 PA in opposition to lefties, however that’s nothing to put in writing house about from a nook outfielder; his profession mark in opposition to lefties is simply 92. As for righties, he owns an 89 wRC+ however was right down to a 68 in 434 PA final 12 months; amongst righties with not less than 300 PA in opposition to same-siders, solely Ke’Bryan Hayes (35) and Jonah Heim (64) had been worse. Cruz was additionally dangerous defensively (-2.7 UZR, -5 FRV, -7 DRS cut up between the 2 corners) and people numbers weren’t aberrations.

Aspiring superutilityman Eli White — the proprietor of a profession 59 wRC+ in 448 PA — is the one different outfield-capable participant projected to make the 26-man roster except one counts Marcell Ozuna, who didn’t play protection in any respect final 12 months and performed simply two video games in left in 2023. Thus the Braves must dig deeper to search out alternate options to the Kelenic/De La Cruz pairing. Luke Williams, a superutilityman who’s two years youthful than White (28 versus 30) additionally owns a 59 wRC+ by 315 PA within the majors, and is on the 40-man roster and listed among the many outfielders, as is 24-year-old Carlos D. Rodriguez, their high outfield prospect within the higher minors, a 40-FV slash-and-dash fifth outfielder sort who cut up final 12 months between the Brewers’ Double- and Triple-A groups earlier than electing minor league free company. The Braves have 33-year-old righty Jake Marisnick in camp as a non-roster invitee, however he didn’t even play within the majors final 12 months and managed simply 59 video games within the Angels’ group whereas battling accidents. What’s extra, he didn’t put up a wRC+ increased than 86 from 2021-23, and had simply an 87 wRC+ in opposition to lefties in these years.

Our Steamer and ZiPS projections counsel that all the aforementioned stand-ins for Acuña will battle to flee the gravitational pull of substitute stage:

A commerce or not less than an improve within the type of another group’s NRI shaking free as spring coaching ends may enhance the scenario… possibly. Glancing at Jon Becker’s roundup of NRIs on the fringes, one of the best outfielder doubtlessly obtainable is perhaps righty Manuel Margot, who’s in camp with the Brewers; others Becker mentions embrace 2021 NLCS MVP Eddie Rosario (at the moment in Dodgers camp), Albert Almora Jr. (Marlins), Joey Gallo (Nationals), and Trayce Thompson (Pink Sox).

I do surprise if the Braves’ willingness to accept the Kelenic/De La Cruz mixture — which relies upon loads on a perception that Kelenic will bounce again — is perhaps the clearest sign that they don’t count on Acuña to overlook a ton of time. The group is at the moment favored to win the NL East, with a 93.6-win projection and 64.2% odds of successful the division, forward of the Phillies (87.4 wins, 20.2%) and Mets (86.2 wins, 15.2%), and with a considerable absence for Acuña already baked in. As we’ve seen from my only-slightly-premature concern in regards to the Yankees — who quickly misplaced Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgical procedure and acquired worse information about Giancarlo Stanton — it’s not the primary wave of accidents that causes a group’s playoff hopes to take a extreme hit, it’s when subsequent waves amplify that. Due to their depth and a few of Alex Anthopoulous’ astute transactions, the 2021 Braves overcame the lack of Acuña to win a championship, however final 12 months’s Braves had too many different accidents to resist his loss.

And as famous by Feinsand, the Braves will open the season with different key contributors sidelined as properly. Strider underwent what was anticipated to be his second Tommy John surgical procedure final April 13, however Dr. Keith Meister discovered that his UCL didn’t have a major tear and was in a position to take away a bone fragment that was inflicting irritation to the ligament and insert an inner brace, a process whose restoration time is shorter. Our present projections have the Braves opening the season with Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Spencer Schwellenbach, Grant Holmes and Ian Anderson as their beginning 5. Each Holmes, who spent final 12 months as a swingman for the Braves, and Anderson, who hasn’t pitched within the majors since 2022 attributable to Tommy John surgical procedure and post-rehab struggles, are out of choices, and the latter has moreover battled management points this spring, strolling 13 in 12 innings of labor. Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver (no. 40 on our High 100) and 2023 first-round decide Hurston Waldrep (no. 6 on our Braves listing as a 45-FV prospect) are the subsequent guys on the depth chart in case the accidents stack up; Michael Baumann lately zoomed in on the group’s rotation image right here.

In the meantime, the lineup will likely be down one different common in addition to Acuña. Catcher Sean Murphy suffered a fractured left rib when he was hit by a pitch on February 28, an harm anticipated to sideline him for 4 to 6 weeks. Past projected backup Chadwick Tromp, the group will face a alternative of which one in all their three NRIs to roster: Curt Casali, Sandy León, or Drake Baldwin. Casali and León are each well-traveled 36-year-old backups; the previous spent final 12 months with the Giants however hit for only a 62 wRC+ in 125 PA whereas the latter spent the season with the Braves’ Triple-A Gwinnett affiliate and owns a profession 56 wRC+. The 23-year-old Baldwin, our Eleventh-ranked prospect general, is “a stocky, bodily catcher with spectacular reverse area energy and really feel to hit,” to cite Eric Longenhagen’s Prospects TLDR. The 55-FV prospect “initiatives as an above-average common.” He’s matured so shortly that he’s not on the 40-man roster, so whether or not they add him or one of many older backstops, they’ve a bit much less flexibility to handle their outfielders.

Whereas Acuña will begin the season on the IL, this all nonetheless counts as largely excellent news given his progress this spring. He’s nonetheless prone to be an offensive pressure to be reckoned with, it’s simply going to take a little bit of time earlier than we get to see him.