For those who’re a Cleveland Guardians fan, the ritual is definitely getting outdated at this level. The workforce develops an All-Star center infielder, and instances are good. Then, inevitably, that participant leaves and is changed by a brand new and unproven center infielder. Can the workforce make it work? Tune in subsequent season to seek out out.
The most recent intriguing alternative is Gabriel Arias, who, like seemingly each current Guardians hitting prospect, is a shortstop by commerce. He regarded just like the inheritor obvious to the job in 2023, backing up at brief earlier than Amed Rosario’s departure. However Arias scuffled, then broke his wrist on the tail finish of the season. That damage may need lingered into final 12 months, and regardless of the purpose, he struggled mightily, ceding the shortstop job to Brayan Rocchio. Fortunately, in Cleveland, a contributing position is just one commerce away, and now that second baseman Andrés Giménez is a Blue Jay, Arias heads into 2025 as a key a part of the Guardians’ infield plans.
Loads of the particulars of Arias’ 563 main league plate appearances are ripped proper out of his final prospect report. Intermittent contact points? Yeah, he strikes out a 3rd of the time. Potential for energy? He launched 10 homers in half a season in 2023. Defensive versatility? He’s logged time at each place apart from pitcher and catcher. However the relative weights of every of these options of his recreation matter, and thus far in his profession, the contact points have dominated.
It’s attainable to succeed regardless of a high-strikeout recreation, and truthfully, Arias is the proper of participant to take action. Groups will tolerate a participant with a nasty contact charge if he hits for energy and contributes together with his glove. The defensive element is already there, particularly due to his versatility, however the energy hasn’t arrived; his profession .138 ISO is the area of contact hitters, not boom-bust guys whose muscle tissues have muscle tissues.
Is that going to vary this 12 months? To be clear, I don’t know. Guys like Arias flame out on a regular basis. It’s actually exhausting to stay round and produce within the majors if you run even a 15% swinging strike charge – and he’s up close to 20%. But when issues work out, it’s pretty straightforward to see how they’d. Actually, one video is all I would like to point out you:
That’s Zac Gallen standing within the body dispassionately. And that sort of response tells you the place the ball went. No fingers pointing up for a pop fly. No watching to see whether or not the stadium would include it. If the ball appears prefer it’s headed to the Grand Canyon and the crack of the bat feels like a sonic increase, you in all probability don’t have to wonder if your spring coaching park’s fences are deep sufficient; you may simply transfer on to the subsequent batter.
Why is that this specific swing so vital? I can consider a number of causes. First, I wasn’t kidding about how exhausting Arias hit that ball. It got here off of his bat at 116 mph. That’s the fifth-hardest-hit ball of spring coaching. It’s the second-hardest-hit ball that wasn’t pounded straight into the bottom, and it was the hardest-hit residence run. It’s a superlative particular person effort, in different phrases. You’ll be able to’t educate exit velocity, however exit velocity with out launch angle is all bark and no chunk. This homer is what hitting coaches imply after they preach elevating and celebrating.
The comparability to Arias’s previous outcomes matter, too. He’s by no means hit a ball even near that onerous within the massive leagues, topping out at 114.4 mph. He’s by no means hit a ball that onerous within the minors – a minimum of, in all probability not, since Statcast information is newer there. Solely 17 main leaguers hit a baseball more durable than that in all of 2024. Numbers out of context are simply numbers. 116? That may very well be an condominium quantity or the temperature in Palm Springs in July. More durable than both Juan Soto or Manny Machado hit a baseball in 2024? Now that’s attention-grabbing.
A associated information level: Arias swung exhausting to hit the ball like that. Per Statcast, his bat was touring at 79 mph when he made contact. That’s a sturdy quantity, to say the least. José Ramírez swung that onerous solely 36 instances final 12 months in a full season. Jhonkensy Noel, a 6-foot-3, 250-pound tower of energy, was the one Guardian to constantly show extra swing velocity. For those who’re in search of affirmation that the scouting experiences had been proper, that Arias is able to knocking the quilt off the ball when he connects, it is a resounding examine mark.
It issues, too, who was doing the pitching. That wasn’t some scrub hoping to impress the workforce earlier than getting despatched again to minor league camp. It was Gallen, an All-Star with two top-five Cy Younger finishes. And it was hardly a simple pitch to drive; mushy and low isn’t precisely the best way you draw up your own home runs. Gallen has made a residing disrupting timing with an array of secondaries, and when he retains the ball low like that, opponents have put up abysmal general numbers, with an enormous whiff charge and only a few hard-hit balls within the air.
It’s not a lot that Arias goes to do that each time. He hasn’t hit one other residence run this spring, the truth is. However simply demonstrating the flexibility is what’s thrilling right here. Toolsy, power-over-hit prospects usually wrestle to raise the ball in recreation conditions. They notably wrestle towards secondary stuff; usually talking, these are those that dart away from the bat on the final second, not very best for guys who boast uncooked energy however lack bat management.
Much more promisingly, Arias overcame one among his biggest weaknesses to hit that homer. Positive, all of the swing and miss is one purpose he hasn’t proven plus energy within the majors but, however an incapability to elevate the ball has been simply as a lot of an issue. That’s not remoted to the large leagues; even within the minors, he’s constantly run elevated groundball charges. When he’s made contact with pitches of roughly that peak prior to now, it’s been a worm-burning parade. We’re speaking two-thirds grounders, a minimum of, and little or no extra-base pop.
None of which means that Arias goes to excel within the majors this 12 months. These strikeouts are nonetheless terrifying. He’s not even excelling in spring coaching! However I nonetheless suppose it’s notable. I principally ignore information and narratives within the spring. It’s too straightforward to beat up on weak competitors or catch a sizzling streak that sticks in individuals’s minds due to recency bias, or to wrestle since you’re engaged on a brand new pitch or approach. However I prefer to search for outliers, indicators {that a} participant has demonstrated a ability I hadn’t beforehand seen, and it is a case of that. It doesn’t imply Arias gained’t fail. It simply signifies that he’s price taking a look at in a brand new gentle.
The Guardians want offense in a nasty approach this 12 months. They want energy particularly. And perhaps, simply perhaps, Arias can provide them that. If he does, do not forget that response from Gallen. “Wow, that ball was crushed” is what his physique language says. The extra pitchers Arias can do this to this 12 months, the higher Cleveland’s possibilities might be in an thrilling, unsettled AL Central.