Cease me for those who’ve heard this earlier than: This was alleged to be the yr for Francisco Alvarez. He had an electrical rookie season for the Mets in 2023, placing up 3.0 WAR because of glorious framing numbers and a power-heavy strategy that balanced 25 dwelling runs with a .209 batting common for a 97 wRC+. Coming into the 2024 season, he was poised to go from breakout rookie to full-blown star, however he received off to a gradual begin and suffered a torn UCL in his left thumb in April. Alvarez returned in June and took just a few days to get going, however put up a 112 wRC+ over his final 78 video games and completed the season with 1.9 WAR. He’s now 23 years outdated, and as soon as once more, 2025 was alleged to be the yr that he put all of it collectively. As a substitute, Mets supervisor Carlos Mendoza informed reporters on Sunday that Alvarez fractured the hamate bone in that very same left hand throughout stay batting observe on Saturday. He’ll have surgical procedure in the present day and be out for six to eight weeks, lacking the primary month or so of the season.
Because the harm impacts the meat of Alvarez’s catching hand, it will be affordable to anticipate the absence to fall on the longer aspect of that vary. Nonetheless, Baseball Prospectus’ Restoration Dashboard lists two catchers who fractured their hamate bones early within the season – Francisco Cervelli in 2016 and James McCann in 2022, when he was taking part in for the Mets – and neither missed greater than 44 days. Simply to muddle our expectations much more, hamate accidents are thought sap a hitter’s energy upon their return, however a 2022 examine from Jason Collette reveals no such sample. As energy is the cornerstone of Alvarez’s recreation, shedding it will just about crush his offensive profile, but it surely’s price noting that, regardless of the thumb surgical procedure, he really put up increased max and ninetieth percentile exit velocities in 2024 than he did in 2023. The harm is clearly unwelcome information, and the very last thing Alvarez wants is one more surgical procedure on his catching hand. Furthermore, he’ll lose half of his spring coaching ramp up and have to leap into main league motion after a rehab task. Nonetheless, this isn’t usually a serious harm and there’s a good likelihood that he received’t return in notably diminished kind.
So what are the Mets going to do at catcher for the primary month of the season? Indisputably, they’re going to be a lot worse. Earlier than the harm, our Depth Charts ranked the group eighth on the catcher spot, with Alvarez anticipated to make 474 plate appearances and earn 3.6 of the place’s complete 4.1 WAR. We’ve now received Mets catchers ranked twelfth, getting 371 PAs from Alvarez, together with 2.6 of their complete 3.6 WAR. (To be clear, that doesn’t think about any potential drop-off in efficiency from Alvarez upon his return.) In the event you’re doing the mathematics there, the Mets are going to lose nearly 120 PAs and 1.0 WAR from Alvarez. In line with Depth Charts, they’ll change Alvarez with 100 PAs and 0.5 WAR from Luis Torrens and Jakson Reetz (together with a handful of PAs from Chris Williams). Our projections say shedding a month of Alvarez means shedding half a win, and that’s if he doesn’t face any setbacks and performs just about precisely like he carried out after he returned from final yr’s harm. With the Braves and Phillies loaded for bear, the Mets don’t essentially have that form of margin for error. Furthermore, it’s fairly straightforward to argue that the projections are portray too rosy an image.
Final yr, Torrens put up strong defensive numbers and a 90 wRC+ for 0.8 WAR over 48 video games. That was by far one of the best season of his profession. In reality, earlier than 2024, he had put up unfavorable WAR in 4 of his six main league seasons, combining for -0.9 WAR over 271 video games. It might not be in any respect surprising to see him have one other sub-replacement degree season in 2025. Reetz is a 29-year-old journeyman who got here up with the Nationals and made it into two video games for them in 2021. He additionally received into six video games with the Giants in 2024. The Mets signed Reetz to a minor league deal in November, and on the time he was principally thought of organizational depth. With so little to go on, the projections are pegging him as proper round alternative degree by default. All of that is to say that even earlier than Alvarez went down, the Mets may’ve used a greater plan for backup catcher. At this level, it’s arduous to think about that they received’t transfer to bolster the place.
The apparent candidates are Yasmani Grandal and McCann, who’re nonetheless accessible in free company. Jay Jaffe wrote up Grandal as one of the best accessible catcher few weeks in the past, whereas over at MLB Commerce Rumors, Mark Polishuk famous that Grandal performed for the 2019 Brewers, a group that was run by present Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns. At this level of their careers, neither Grandal nor McCann has the ceiling to return in and make the Mets overlook about Alvarez, however their flooring are manner above these of Torrens and Reetz. The Mets will presumably discover the commerce market, too, and in the event that they don’t wish to spend any cash in any respect, they’ll wait and choose up a catcher who turns into accessible as different groups make roster choices over the subsequent couple of weeks.
There’s yet one more issue that makes this harm such a bummer. Alvarez continues to be simply 23 years outdated, and though he’s been restricted by harm, I wish to ensure that we respect what he’s already been in a position to accomplish. In line with our database, his 3.0-WAR efficiency in 2023 was the twenty eighth most beneficial rookie season for a catcher in AL/NL historical past. His 5.0 complete profession WAR is tenth most all time amongst catchers earlier than their age-23 season. His 37 dwelling runs are tied for second. Catchers simply don’t often play this effectively this younger. Adley Rutschman began his age-23 season in Double-A. Alvarez is coming into his third season because the Mets’ unquestioned starter. We’re speaking a few participant who has the prospect to place collectively a extremely particular profession, and for the second season in a row, the beginning blocks have been kicked out from beneath him.