As you properly know, that is the time of 12 months once we discuss how projection programs are inherently conservative. Why isn’t Shohei Ohtani projected for a 12-win season? As a result of whereas that’s potential, it’s not the likeliest consequence when you’ve thought-about all the numerous components that go right into a baseball season. Projections aren’t meant to be thrilling. They’re meant to foretell the long run with the smallest margin for error potential. They’re regression machines. They crunch the numbers, they give the impression of being to the previous to see how comparable situations have performed out, after which they cease and say, “Hmm, we must always most likely hedge our bets right here.” They don’t predict loopy edge circumstances. They don’t predict all-time information. Besides apparently, this 12 months they do.
When you stroll over to the ZiPS Depth Charts projections, you’ll discover two Cincinnati Reds pitchers on the high of an especially necessary column: hit-by-pitches. ZiPS DC expects Nick Lodolo to guide the league with 21 HBPs and Hunter Greene to be proper behind him with 19. That half’s not significantly shocking. Greene led baseball with 19 HBPs in 2024, and though he hit the IL 4 completely different instances, Lodolo tied for second with 18. However Greene and Lodolo should not alone. Again in November, the Reds traded for Brady Singer, who hit 10 batters with the Royals final season and is projected to hit 10 extra in 2025, tied for the Thirteenth-highest projection. In addition they added Nick Martinez, considered one of three Reds projected to hit six batters. Then there are one other 5 Reds projected for 5 HBPs. That’s eight completely different pitchers projected to hit at the very least 5 batters. In line with Stathead, solely 26 groups have ever completed that feat, rostering eight completely different pitchers who hit at the very least 5 batters. In all, ZiPS DC expects the Reds to hit 124 batters. The all-time document is 110, set by the 2022 Cincinnati Reds. The 2024 Cincinnati Reds are tied for twelfth all-time with 93 (although they trailed the Mets for the NL lead by one).
Reds ZiPS HBP Projections
Now, I must again off this declare for a minute. When you’ve seemed carefully at ZiPS DC, you’ll know that the system initiatives extra innings for every group than are literally out there. The projections have the Reds throwing 1,753 innings, however over the previous couple years, the common group has thrown proper round 1,440. For a counting stat like this, we have to minimize all our numbers by roughly 18%, and that brings the Reds’ projection right down to 102 HBPs. That may nonetheless be the third-highest whole in baseball historical past – really a bonkers quantity when you think about that it’s merely their fiftieth percentile projection, that means they’re simply as more likely to go over it as they’re to go below it – however it could now not be a document.
With 102 HBPs, the 2025 Reds would nonetheless path the 2022 variations of themselves; again after they have been so younger and hopeful, and possibly even nonetheless dabbing often. They’d additionally path the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, whose beginning rotation featured 5 completely different pitchers with at the very least 10 HBPs: Frank Bates (23), Jim Hughey (22), Charlie Knepper (15), Loopy Schmit (14), and Harry Colliflower (11). The Spiders Hit (by Pitch) Squad is pictured under, and I believe we will all inform which one is Schmit.
Everyone knows the case for the why the Reds may not hit their projections: accidents. Lodolo has struggled with greater than his fair proportion of illnesses, and Greene battled elbow soreness in August and September. If these two can’t mix for one thing like 220 innings, the Reds aren’t going to hit the document. Then again, no one would name you loopy (Schmit) for anticipating the Reds to blow previous each the projection and the document. For starters, ZiPS DC pegs Lodolo for less than 126 innings, and we’re decreasing it by 18%, which brings his workload down under 104. He threw extra innings than that final season, at the same time as he made these 4 completely different journeys to the IL. If Lodolo could make a full 30 begins, this factor’s within the bag, however for our functions, he doesn’t even have to be absolutely wholesome. If he can simply be marginally more healthy than he was in 2024 – and also you’ll be shocked to listen to this, however he’s apparently in the very best form of his life – he’s going to get much more innings, and nobody hits extra batters on a per-inning foundation than Lodolo. In any case, his identify is actually Spanish for “I harm it.”
Lodolo is projected to hit 1.5 batters per 9 innings. Not solely is that essentially the most amongst all starters, it makes him considered one of simply 4 starters projected to hit greater than a batter per 9. The others: Chase Dollander, José Soriano, and, you guessed it, Greene. Between Hunter and I Harm It, nominative determinism says the Reds are the group to beat (or quite, to be crushed by).
Utilizing our fancy new historic ZiPS projections, it’s also possible to return and have a look at that record-setting 2022 Reds group. You’ll discover that these Reds additionally have been projected for 124 HBPs. It’s kismet! Nonetheless, when you dig down, you’ll discover that their projections have been truly primarily based on 2,439 innings; almost a thousand greater than a typical group’s workload and almost 700 greater than the 2025 Reds are projected to throw. When you prorate their numbers for a traditional 1,440-inning season, the 2022 Reds have been projected to hit simply 73 batters! They needed to massively overperform their projections with the intention to plunk their approach into the document books. ZiPS thinks these 2025 Reds are a lot, far more bloodthirsty.
The Reds are the primary and oldest skilled baseball group. Since 1882, Baseball Reference credit them with hitting 5,897 batters, 123 forward of the second-place Phillies. ZiPS initiatives Philadelphia to plunk a paltry 58 batters this season, 44 fewer than the Reds. Even when the Reds disappoint us all and throw the ball over the plate at a non-record-breaking tempo like a bunch of boring, competent stomach itchers, they’re nearly sure so as to add to their all-time lead. No less than that’s what the projections say.