What follows is a short abstract of the fashionable historical past of the Atlanta Braves: six straight division titles from 2018 to 2023. That features a World Sequence championship in 2021 and back-to-back 100-win seasons the next two years. I used to be tempted to caveat this by saying all this may’ve appeared much more spectacular if the Dodgers hadn’t ruined the curve, however within the 2020s, the Braves have been proper there with them. Right here’s a coincidence that’s nonetheless helpful from a literary perspective: Brian Snitker is now one spot forward of Bobby Cox on the profession managerial profitable share leaderboard.
In 2024, the Braves have been nonetheless good, however not fairly nearly as good as earlier than. There have been causes for this. After years of bizarre lineup stability, everybody acquired damage apart from Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson (who had a down 12 months by his requirements), and Orlando Arcia (who had a down 12 months by Yuniesky Betancourt’s requirements). Nonetheless, the Braves completed six video games behind a Phillies crew that got here out of the gate just like the 2001 Mariners however ended the season like, nicely, decide any subsequent Mariners crew. The Braves wanted a Sport 162 win to seize a Wild Card berth, and didn’t do a lot with it, bowing out in straight units to the Padres.
Will the Braves bounce again in 2025? I think about so. In the event that they get even 130 or 140 video games out of Ronald Acuña Jr. as an alternative of 49, that’d claw again most of that six-game deficit proper there. But it surely’s not a certainty. I fear that the harm issues that plagued Atlanta final 12 months have been the beginning of a development, moderately than a fluke. (Current developments surrounding Sean Murphy recommend this is perhaps the case.)
The competitors is stronger than ever. The Phillies stay as earlier than. The Mets signed the perfect free agent in the marketplace. Even the Nats confirmed indicators of competence in 2024 and can solely enhance as their rookies sprout into the massive league lineup. And with as many as 4 good groups within the NL West, there are immediately not sufficient playoff berths to go round.
Given the comparatively slim margin for error within the NL pennant race — even for a crew as loaded because the Braves — I wished to level out one thing that startled me a bit. Grant Holmes is at the moment listed because the Braves’ no. 4 starter. Holmes, who turns 29 on the finish of the month, lastly made the majors as a swingman final season and pitched fairly nicely (3.56 ERA and three.20 FIP in 68 1/3 innings), however he’s not the form of no. 4 starter a crew will get when it goals to win 100 video games.
Behind him: Ian Anderson, whom you certainly bear in mind because the youthful changeup-slinging monster who helped the Braves attain the NLCS in 2020 and win the World Sequence in 2021. Sadly, the 2021 World Sequence is the final time Anderson pitched nicely within the majors, and he hasn’t pitched within the large leagues in any respect since 2022. Nonetheless, he’s given motive for optimism in his two Grapefruit League begins thus far.
In case you’re bullish on the Braves this 12 months, you’re in all probability questioning why I’m beginning with the again of Atlanta’s rotation and never the entrance. As a result of Holmes or Anderson in all probability isn’t going to start out a hypothetical playoff sport. You realize who would? Reigning Cy Younger Award winner Chris Sale. Spencer Strider, who’ll be again from inner brace reconstruction of his UCL someday later this spring. Reynaldo López, whose conversion to the rotation final 12 months was so successful he made the All-Star crew. And Spencer Schwellenbach, who has the makings of a mid-rotation workhorse with so many efficient pitches his catcher’s PitchCom must have an exterior keyboard plugged into its USB port.
You could possibly argue that if Holmes and Anderson have the within monitor on a rotation spot now, it’s as a result of they’re each out of choices. In the meantime Atlanta’s two finest remaining beginning pitcher choices is perhaps AJ Smith-Shawver, the no. 40 prospect in baseball, and 2023 first-rounder Hurston Waldrep, whose splitter has pushed me to matches of verbosity prior to now.
However even in the event you settle for that each rotation in baseball has issues about harm or consistency, to a higher or lesser extent, Atlanta’s has a wider variance than most.
Final 12 months, the Phillies had 4 beginning pitchers attain the 150-inning mark. In case you put collectively each beginning pitcher within the Braves’ group, you’d solely be capable to discover 4 150-inning main league seasons prior to now six years: One every for Sale, Strider, Bryce Elder, and López, who final hit that mark with the White Sox in 2019. Can any of those guys be counted on to throw large innings in 2025? Smith-Shawver, Anderson, and Waldrep all have large upside, however they mixed to pitch simply 11 1/3 innings within the majors final 12 months, and Waldrep acquired crushed in each of his begins on the main league stage.
That uncertainty is fascinating, particularly within the context of the NL East race. Listed below are the highest eight beginning pitchers for the three groups most cheap folks anticipate to contend for that division. The stats are from this 12 months’s ZiPS Depth Charts projections, and pitchers who’re at the moment injured or being slow-walked into the season are highlighted in crimson.
Evaluating the NL East Contenders’ Rotations
The Phillies’ rotation was one of many strongest models in all of baseball final season. Sánchez is perhaps taking one other leap, Luzardo is perhaps mounted, and the highest pitching prospect within the sport is on tempo to affix the crew midway via 2025. The Mets’ rotation has a load-bearing David Peterson.
The place do the Braves slot in that pecking order? Nicely, if Strider’s wholesome, Sale and López repeat what they did final 12 months, Anderson rediscovers his schwerve, and Smith-Shawver and Waldrep lastly click on on the large league stage, Atlanta’s rotation must be simply nearly as good as Philadelphia’s on the high and deeper on the again finish. If none of that occurs, the Braves’ rotation could possibly be simply as shaky because the Mets’ employees.