I bought my begin in baseball writing as a Cardinals blogger. That’s solely pure – I’m a Cardinals fan. My dad grew up in St. Louis and handed it on to me. I’m nonetheless a fan, although definitely lower than I used to be earlier than I began writing in regards to the sport as my full-time job. However whether or not you’re taking a look at it by means of the lens of a fan or simply as an analyst, the trajectory of this always-competing, never-quite-dominant crew has been fascinating to look at.
I had a wierd feeling whereas watching the Redbirds final yr. I stored questioning, “Why is that this crew filled with previous guys?” Ever for the reason that 2011 World Sequence win, Albert Pujols’ first finale in St. Louis, the crew at all times appeared filled with younger, devil-magicky contributors. A median Playing cards roster had a couple of recognizable stars plus a bunch of younger guys you’d by no means heard of who had been manner higher than you initially realized. Matt Carpenter and Michael Wacha had been surprising stars in 2013. Carlos Martínez and Kolten Wong got here on robust. After a couple of years of lacking the playoffs regardless of fascinating younger contributors (Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk, Luke Weaver), the 2019 Playing cards coalesced round Jack Flaherty, Tommy Edman, and Paul DeJong.
You’ve heard of all of these gamers, in fact, however on the time, they had been younger up-and-comers. The Cardinals by no means appeared to be previous regardless of working out Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright yr after yr. These guys had been a key veteran core, serving to to unfold the crew gospel to the younger horde backing them up. However even with these previous arms working issues, my view of the Playing cards as a youthful outfit was appropriate. From 2013 by means of 2018, St. Louis’ roster was youthful than common yearly. Then they had been ever so barely older than league common in 2019 and once more in 2020.
What modified in these years? Properly, one very key contributor modified in 2019: Paul Goldschmidt. He was 31 in 2019, on the tail finish of his prime, and when the Cardinals acquired him from the Diamondbacks, it was rightly hailed as a coup. Goldschmidt had a down season that yr, however then he was one of many 10 finest hitters in baseball over the following 4.
Then issues modified once more. Earlier than the 2021 season, the Cardinals doubled down on their commerce surplus with the NL West, dealing for Nolan Arenado. Like Goldschmidt, Arenado got here to St. Louis close to the height of his powers and into his third decade on earth. He, too, has been wonderful in a Cardinals uniform. However the way in which the crew was constructed modified massively with these two as anchors. Right here it’s in visible type:
That sounds easy – add previous gamers, become older. However the fact is, previous gamers are part of each roster. Wainwright and Molina had been 36 and 35 in 2018, respectively, and the Playing cards had been youthful than league common that yr. That’s far older than the nook infield pair who changed them as crew leaders. But even after Wainwright and Molina retired, the Playing cards ran out lineups as previous as any they’ve used within the final 15 years. What offers?
The reality is, the “star” positions on each crew’s roster are usually a bit older than common. That’s simply how baseball works. Gamers are usually at their most efficient round 28-30. The most effective gamers? They’ve constructed their title by then, after which they proceed on being stars into their 30s. Certain, you might need a younger star or two in your crew, however the majority of established gamers are older. That’s how they’re established. The typical age of the highest 25 hitters in baseball in 2024 was round half a yr older than hitters as an entire, and that’s with nice seasons from younger standouts like Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson.
Likewise, the highest pitchers in baseball are older than the typical baseball participant. The highest 25 pitchers final season had been, on common, round 0.6 years older than the complete cohort of pitchers. That’s partially as a result of Chris Sale had a resurgent yr at age 35, however stars having resurgent years isn’t a phenomenon distinctive to 2024. Justin Verlander cracked the highest 25 in 2023 at age 40. He and Yu Darvish had been within the high 15 in 2022. Star pitchers have longer careers, as a result of they’re stars – which signifies that the highest of the leaderboard is at all times going to be dotted with older sorts.
That’s not what modified on St. Louis’ roster, although. It’s not that Goldschmidt and Arenado made the crew older. I imply, they did, however as I discussed, the Cardinals have usually constructed round older stars and nonetheless had younger teams general. As a substitute, the supporting forged modified. Right here’s one other manner of taking a look at it. Beneath you may see the share of plate appearances (or batters confronted for pitchers) taken by gamers age 30 or older:
To dive in much more particularly, right here’s the share of taking part in time taken up by gamers 30 years or older, break up into place gamers and pitchers:
Oh. Properly then.
If there’s a throughline to St. Louis’ transfer from persistently younger and aggressive to pivoting to a rebuild, it’s this. The Cardinals churned by means of a fantastic number of younger pitchers early of their most up-to-date run of dominance. Then they turned issues over to a brand new era fronted by Flaherty and Weaver, with blended outcomes. However after that, there was no new crop of arms up from the farm system to substitute in. Andre Pallante made 20 begins final yr at age 25. Flaherty made 15 begins in 2021, additionally at 25. These are the one 15-start seasons from younger pitchers that the Playing cards have produced within the 2020s.
The pipeline didn’t look that manner a decade in the past. Annually from 2013 by means of 2019, a number of younger Playing cards starters featured into the rotation. In a number of of these years, three of their high 5 starters hadn’t even hit arbitration. The crew was getting big worth out of its younger pitchers even because the “Satan Magic” hitters and well-known veterans bought extra of the press. When that modified, so too did the fortunes of the crew.
On this scenario, I believe we will infer a trigger for this shift. No crew would want to inventory their rotation with veterans acquired in free company. If there are cheap farm system choices accessible, they’ll get an opportunity. That’s simply how the sport works. Groups want inside choices the place attainable, and notably younger inside choices. The Cardinals didn’t exit and signal Kyle Gibson as a result of they needed to bury their children. They signed him (and gamers like him) as a result of they didn’t have sufficient children to area a viable main league rotation.
In different phrases, I believe that pitching employees age is an honest proxy for pitching improvement. When that line – share of pitching carried out by 30-year-olds – begins to go up, it’s as a result of there isn’t sufficient younger pitching accessible. And the reality is, that’s costly. Younger gamers earn much less. That’s simply how the system works. And so long as entrance places of work function below funds constraints, the failure to develop younger pitching is a wrench within the works.
The Cardinals clearly know this. On the 2023 commerce deadline, John Mozeliak addressed it head on, saying “We’re not so cussed or boastful to say we’re going to maintain doing our system and hoping for a greater final result” in discussing the necessity for extra swing-and-miss within the membership’s minor league system. The strikes the crew has made since then underscore that; improvement employees has modified, Chaim Bloom is the POBO-apparent, and a lot of the crew’s forward-looking trades have centered on toolsy pitchers.
The overhaul is already in progress. Utilizing the taking part in time projected by RosterResource, Playing cards pitchers this yr would common 29.5 years of age. That’s down 1.6 years from the 2024 version of the membership. Their hitters had been already younger, however once more per RosterResource, they’re going to get meaningfully youthful this yr. In all, if every little thing goes in keeping with our estimates, the Purple Birds will see their common crew age drop by 1.2 years, from manner increased than league common to barely beneath.
Now, this isn’t a silver bullet. The Cardinals stopped attempting to patch their pitching employees this yr, and the causality doesn’t work in reverse; utilizing youthful pitchers doesn’t essentially make your pitching employees higher. Now we have them within the backside third of the league in projected whole WAR, and that feels proper to me.
However whether or not you’re a Cardinals fan questioning why the final two years haven’t gone nicely regardless of the superstars on the crew, or only a baseball fan attempting to determine why probably the most persistently aggressive crew within the sport simply vanished right into a gap the entire sudden, I believe that these graphs inform the story. The Cardinals had been nice for a very long time as a result of they stored churning out good younger gamers to enhance the celebs they acquired. Then they ran out of fine younger pitchers, and regardless of their finest efforts, they couldn’t repair that downside, which brings us again to the current. A youth motion is coming – because it needed to. If the crew’s common pitching age stays down because the Playing cards get higher once more, it’ll be a fantastic signal that they’ve efficiently overhauled their pitching dev. If it doesn’t, it is perhaps again to sq. one.