Let’s Verify In on Brandon Lowe

Again within the days earlier than Junior Caminero — even within the days earlier than Wander Franco — there was Brandon Lowe, a 5-foot-10 second baseman who anchored the Tampa Bay Rays’ lineup throughout its most fecund interval. Because the Rays made the playoffs 5 years in a row from 2019 to 2023, and gained the pennant in 2020, Lowe was on the heart of it. He posted a 151 wRC+ in 2020, and a 12 months later he hit 39 dwelling runs.

That’s tied for the second-most homers in a season in Rays historical past, up amongst a bunch of fellows (Carlos Pena, Logan Morrison, Jose Canseco) who’re so large they may match Lowe of their jacket pocket.

Now, as Caminero is bashing his means into the on a regular basis lineup, Lowe is at an inflection level in his profession. He’s struggled to remain wholesome the previous three years, and he turns 31 in July. And since the whole lot the Rays contact must be considered via this lens: Lowe is within the ultimate assured season of his seven-year contract. His 2026 membership choice is sort of inexpensive, even for Tampa Bay ($11.5 million), however there’s just one choice 12 months.

On condition that the Rays are inveterately unsentimental about gamers on this place, there was some transient commerce hypothesis earlier this offseason. It by no means bought far, however the Rays are in a troublesome division, and it wouldn’t take a lot to show them into sellers within the midseason commerce market.

So with that in thoughts: What’s Lowe now, and what ought to the Rays do with a man who’s anchored their lineup for the reason that late 2010s?

From a developmental perspective, it’s laborious to think about a participant who’s extra of his time than Lowe: an undersized faculty second baseman who began placing up absurd fly ball charges within the late 2010s, simply because the swing aircraft revolution was at its peak and the ball was at its juiciest. Circumstances are now not ultimate for that form of participant, however even whereas battling persistent again and core accidents over the previous three seasons, Lowe has nonetheless been an excellent hitter.

Since 2022 — so, the worst three seasons of Lowe’s profession — the previous Maryland star has hit .234/.317/.440. That line doesn’t look significantly fairly, but it surely’s a wRC+ of 116. If you happen to take Lowe’s stats over the previous three seasons, he’s averaged 3.0 WAR and 27 dwelling runs per 150 video games performed. That’d be effectively above-average manufacturing for a beginning second baseman — assume Brendan Donovan with twice as many dwelling runs and strikeouts.

There are three questions I’ve about Lowe: First, can his physique maintain up as he will get older? Second, does his method nonetheless play in 2025? And, if the reply to at least one or each of the above questions is not any, what do the Rays have within the pipeline in the event that they determine to maneuver on?

Over the previous two seasons, Lowe has barely damaged the 100-game and 400-plate look markers. Imagine it or not, that 39-dinger marketing campaign in 2021 was the one 12 months through which Lowe has batted greater than 450 occasions in a season, or performed 110 or extra video games.

Not all of Lowe’s accidents have been worrisome in the long run; in 2023, he suffered a season-ending harm when he fouled a ball off his knee laborious sufficient to fracture his patella. To some extent, accidents like this are unavoidable. Each participant will get dinged and nicked by foul balls or errant pitches, or runs into partitions and teammates. Generally you are taking a pair Tylenol and shake it off; different occasions, you find yourself in a forged for eight weeks.

What bothers me extra is the succession of core accidents Lowe has suffered over the previous three years: a stress response and irritation in his decrease again in 2022 and 2023, an indirect pressure that stored him out for six weeks at first of 2024. I wouldn’t count on this type of harm to get higher as an athlete ages. But when Lowe might be on the sphere and productive for 400ish plate appearances a 12 months, he’s nonetheless fairly a helpful participant. Particularly in a world the place he’s making $10.5 million or $11.5 million, and Yoán Moncada is making $5 million.

Lowe may’ve damaged in through the peak of the juiced ball and the elevate-and-celebrate age, however he actually hit his stride as that wave was cresting within the early 2020s. Over the previous three seasons, Lowe has continued to hit the ball laborious and within the air, however his GB/FB numbers aren’t fairly as excessive as they have been 5 years in the past.

In 2020, Lowe’s GB/FB ratio was 14th lowest out of 142 certified hitters. In 2024, he would’ve been thirty second out of 129 if he’d had sufficient plate appearances to get on the leaderboard.

One factor which may’ve precipitated this modification is that Lowe is seeing fewer sinkers than earlier than. At the same time as sinker utilization is barely up throughout the league from 2020, Lowe noticed simply 10.0% sinkers in 2024, in comparison with 17.4% in 2020. Which is a drag, as a result of he posted a .410 wOBA towards sinkers in 2024, his greatest mark of any pitch sort he confronted greater than 15 occasions. (Lowe doubled off the one knuckleball he noticed in 2024, however you’ll be able to’t count on him to see too a lot of these going ahead.)

Pitchers are nonetheless throwing him stuff with arm-side motion, but it surely’s softer now. Simply 15.7% of Lowe’s weight-reduction plan was offspeed pitches in 2020; in 2024, that was as much as 23.1%, and he hit a pitiable .189/.233/.246 towards such choices, with a whiff fee of 37.9%. Lowe nonetheless crushes fastballs typically and holds his personal towards breaking pitches, however there’s one different regarding growth: His stroll fee fell to 7.8% in 2024, after floating within the 10% to 11% vary for many of his profession.

Lowe’s chase numbers have crept up by a few proportion level per 12 months each season since 2021, and in 2024 he swung at 55.2% of pitches in whole, which was the very best mark of his profession and would’ve been within the high 10 in baseball if he’d performed sufficient to qualify for the rate-stat leaderboards. However Lowe can also be getting pitched within the zone extra, maybe as a result of pitchers aren’t as terrified of being taken deep.

4 or 5 years in the past, Lowe was an distinctive model of a particular form of hitter. Since then, he’s trended towards regular, each when it comes to worth and magnificence. However he’s nonetheless a first-division starter at second base, and ZiPS has him remaining so, albeit in diminished enjoying time, for the subsequent three seasons.

The Rays have a tendency to not be as ruthless about buying and selling place gamers as pitchers, and provided that they only dedicated $29 million over two years to Ha-Seong Kim, I can’t consider a motive why Lowe wouldn’t be value $22 million over that very same time interval.

In fact, that additionally makes him helpful within the commerce market. In need of a complete calamity — a catastrophic harm or absolutely the collapse of his hit device — I count on Lowe to be effectively value his workforce choice for subsequent season. Do the Rays have the horses within the center infield to permit them to commerce Lowe?

Perhaps. A lot of the reply to that query will depend on when Kim returns from offseason shoulder surgical procedure, and what state he’s in when he does. Particularly as a result of listed below are the profession stats of the subsequent 4 center infielders on Tampa Bay’s depth chart within the center infield.

Meh.

These guys might completely get much less meh over the subsequent six months. It wasn’t too way back that Mead was a big-time prospect, and 2023 first-rounder Brayden Taylor may be capable to overcome an absence of foot pace and keep within the center infield. But when the Rays wish to win anytime quickly, probably the most logical means to try this is to stay Lowe in the midst of the lineup and let him do his factor.