With 128 days to go earlier than England bid to defend their European title, the reigning continental champions will welcome world champions Spain to Wembley Stadium on Wednesday for a mouth-watering rematch of the Girls’s World Cup last.
In an enormous check for each side, the Lionesses will hope to fare higher than they did when narrowly popping out second finest in Sydney again in August 2023.
With July’s event in Switzerland looming massive, England are craving an announcement outcome that might give them some much-needed momentum going into the Euros.
The rivalry between England and Spain is rising, with each nations having shaken up the elite of ladies’s soccer with their main event victories over the previous three years.
Going through off this time within the Nations League, they need to play one another twice earlier than this summer season’s showpiece occasion.
Nonetheless, Lionesses followers could also be feeling much less assured than earlier than in regards to the probabilities of England retaining their European crown. Their type since that 1-0 defeat to Spain at Stadium Australia has taken a downward trajectory.
Sarina Wiegman will subsequently be searching for a confidence increase. A very good efficiency could be good, however most significantly, she must discover a technique to win.
The Dutch supervisor has confronted Spain on six events as a coach, and solely as soon as has she tasted victory – even then she wanted additional time to win within the quarter-finals of the Girls’s Euros 2022.
Wiegman has misplaced 4 occasions to Spain, struggling defeats in every of her three conferences with them as Netherlands boss, and the opposite loss being that heart-breaking World Cup last with England. Her groups have managed simply two objectives towards Spain, conceding seven in return.
A victory would then lay down a marker forward of the summer season, however Spain are world champions for a motive, and can present the sternest of checks.
Lionesses want their chew again
England’s type has definitely waned since their run to the World Cup last in 2023.
Probably the most notable space of problem for the Lionesses has been their assault. That they had been free-scoring underneath Wiegman beforehand, however within the 18 months since that loss to Spain in Australia, they’re missing their chew up entrance.
England have performed 19 matches because the World Cup, scoring 42 objectives from 38.0 anticipated objectives. That’s a mean of two.2 objectives per recreation, and a couple of.0 xG per recreation, so it’s hardly dangerous going, however when in comparison with their earlier attacking shows, the drop-off is evident.
In 17 matches throughout qualifying for the World Cup, after which the finals themselves, England plundered a unprecedented 93 objectives from 67.7 xG.
These unimaginable numbers meant that the Lionesses have been scoring at a exceptional common of 5.4 objectives per match in that interval, creating probabilities value 3.9 xG per recreation.
In that point, they’d 470 pictures, and 953 touches within the opposition field. Of their 19 video games since, they’ve managed 275 pictures and 549 touches within the opposition field.
Which means their per-game common for pictures is down from 27.6 to 14.4, whereas their common touches within the opponent’s field is down from 56 to twenty-eight.8, virtually half. This downturn is a matter Wiegman might want to handle forward of the Euros.
One other space during which they’ve struggled has been letting groups again into video games within the second half of matches.
England have conceded 10 second-half objectives of their 19 fixtures because the World Cup, going through 89 second-half pictures.
Of their Nations League opener towards Portugal, England suffered the identical destiny by conceding to an distinctive objective from substitute Kika Nazareth, who fired into the highest right-hand nook to earn the hosts a 1-1 draw.
However primarily based on England’s dominance of the primary half, the sport ought to have been lengthy put to mattress. The Lionesses accrued 0.94 of their whole 1.12 xG within the first half.
As a substitute, a second-half momentum shift as soon as once more highlighted the problem of England not with the ability to kill off a recreation they have been in command of.
Of their 17 matches throughout 2023 World Cup qualifying and the event finals, they conceded solely two second-half objectives and allowed 29 fewer pictures (60). England should discover this type once more – they can not afford to provide Spain a sniff on Wednesday evening in the event that they do go in entrance.
Spain’s unpredictable menace
As we noticed from their very own Nations League opener on Friday, Spain should not infallible both. They fell 2-0 all the way down to Belgium, however rallied late within the second half to win 3-2.
Like England, they’ve additionally had a tough spell of type since their victory within the World Cup last. A disappointing run within the Olympics culminated in them being knocked out by Brazil within the semi-finals.
A 4-2 loss to the Selecao was adopted by a 1-0 defeat within the bronze medal match to Germany in a event that noticed the earlier world order in girls’s soccer being restored as soon as extra, with the USA claiming gold.
However Spain will likely be buoyed by their win over Belgium, and additional boosted by the Lionesses’ second-half troubles.
Alternatively, England have received three of their final six conferences with Spain, although did lose their final encounter (the World Cup last).
Regardless of being in need of their finest, England are nonetheless robust to beat, having misplaced solely one in every of their final 9 aggressive fixtures in all competitions (W5 D3), going unbeaten in 4 (W2 D2) since a 2-1 dwelling loss towards France in Might final yr.
Wednesday in our sights pic.twitter.com/owQQYO2bgv
— Lionesses (@Lionesses) February 23, 2025
So, Spain’s assault will should be on type.
Alba Redondo didn’t rating towards Belgium, however registered the very best xG (1.36) of any participant on matchday one within the Nations League, regardless of taking part in simply 60 minutes. She will likely be hoping to be extra medical, having hit the goal solely twice from six pictures.
Redondo additionally had 11 touches within the opponent’s field – a tally bettered by solely Poland’s Ewa Pajor (12). Staff-mate and Girls’s Tremendous League newcomer Mariona Caldentey additionally topped the charts for touches, with a exceptional 142, 17 greater than next-best Teresa Abelleira (125).
Caldentey created 5 probabilities the joint-most of any participant throughout the Nations League opening fixtures together with Italy’s Manuela Giugliano.
4 of the highest six gamers for profitable passes throughout the matchday have been Spanish – Caldentey (87), Irene Paredes, Laia Aleixandri and Abelleira (all 85). As compared, the Lionesses’ most profitable passer towards Portugal was Leah Williamson (56), with Keira Walsh and Niamh Charles next-best on 50 every.
After matchday one, Caldentey (0.73) and Salma Paralluelo (0.7) lead the Nations League for anticipated assists (xA), with every of these gamers teeing up a objective apiece, so England will likely be cautious of the artistic menace posed throughout a supremely proficient Spain assault.
European elite? Those to look at
With the fast development of the WSL and Liga F, it’s no shock that these two sides have been the groups to beat within the final 4 years. After years of US dominance on the world stage, and German dominance in Europe, each groups have proven they will upset the apple cart.
Spain boast the expertise of Aitana Bonmati, a two-time Ballon d’Or winner.
Bonmati already has 10 objective contributions for Barcelona within the league this season, which is a tally matched by her membership and nationwide team-mate Ona Batlle, one other participant who can do injury.
Solely Caroline Graham Hansen (176) has had extra touches within the opposition field than Bonmati (131) this season throughout Europe’s prime 5 leagues. She additionally ranks second in Europe’s prime 5 leagues for probabilities created (49 – stage with Hansen and behind Giugliano’s 50).
Paralluelo is one in every of Spain’s rising abilities that England must be cautious of.
A former sprinter, Paralluelo is fast down the wings. She has 5 objective contributions in simply 304 league minutes this season, which means she averages a objective or help each 60 minutes.
Arsenal pulled out all of the stops to carry Caldentey to London within the low season, and she or he has proved a artistic drive for the Gunners, crafting 26 probabilities within the WSL this time period, a determine bettered solely by her club-mate Katie McCabe (33). Nonetheless, she has the very best anticipated assists (4.29) within the competitors, exhibiting she has created high-quality alternatives.
What about England, then?
Alessia Russo is lastly flourishing at Arsenal underneath new supervisor Renee Slegers, sitting in second within the Golden Boot race with eight objectives, behind Manchester Metropolis’s Khadija ‘Bunny’ Shaw (11).
Russo additionally ranks fourth for WSL objective contributions (10 – eight objectives, two assists) this time period, and has had extra pictures (48) than every other participant within the league. Solely Shaw has recorded a better xG (6.74 to Russo’s 6.13).
Russo grabbed England’s objective towards Portugal, netting as soon as from three makes an attempt. Lauren James matched Russo for pictures (three), though she was unable to transform her probabilities. Nonetheless, the Chelsea star stays a giant menace, and is a participant who thrives in the important thing moments.
Keira Walsh, who simply made a blockbuster transfer from Barcelona to Chelsea within the winter switch window, will likely be recognized nicely by her Spanish opponents.
At 91.52%, she has the second-best passing accuracy throughout Europe’s prime 5 leagues this season of midfielders to try not less than 50 passes.
An unknown amount for Spain, nevertheless, will likely be Manchester United’s Grace Clinton, who leads the WSL for duels (204), whereas no midfielder within the competitors has both tried (50) or accomplished (20) as many dribbles.
Clinton scored the profitable objective in every of her final two England appearances and was aiming to develop into the youngest participant on file to attain in three straight for the nationwide workforce (since 2013), however she couldn’t discover the web towards Portugal.
With no Georgia Stanway, Clinton has one other likelihood to show she is able to taking part in a giant function.
A star efficiency towards one of many world’s finest groups would do her probabilities of securing a beginning spot on the Euros no hurt in any respect.