The primary deadline of the 2025 season has come and gone: February 17, the final day Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was open to signing an extension with the Blue Jays earlier than he hits free company this coming winter. Whereas each Guerrero and Toronto GM Ross Atkins stay taken with persevering with their partnership, it doesn’t seem that the 2 sides had been near a deal. Guerrero has his value, and the Jays didn’t meet it. No exhausting emotions; we’ll speak once more in November.
It looks as if simply final week that Guerrero introduced his bonkers energy and elite hit instrument as much as the majors, however time flies. Ought to Guerrero select to play elsewhere subsequent season, shedding him can be a definitive second in Blue Jays historical past. Not simply due to his star energy and the hype that accompanied him since he first signed with the crew as an novice free agent, however as a result of he’s Toronto’s finest participant by far.
There have been some ups and downs in Guerrero’s profession, however in 2024 he hit .323/.396/.544 in 159 video games and 697 plate appearances. For these of you who need one thing meatier than “he hit .300 with 30 homers and 100 RBI,” that’s a wRC+ of 165.
I need to place that quantity — a 165 wRC+ — in just a little context. As a result of I believe common baseball discourse tends to clean over the excellence between good gamers and nice ones by treating all All Star-level gamers, say, as roughly equal. It’s the “within the dialog” factor I maintain harping on, and the easiest gamers in baseball, particularly the hitters, get underrated because of this.
Prior to now decade, there have been 41 particular person seasons of 500 or extra plate appearances and a wRC+ of 160 or higher. Vladito was sixth in wRC+ final yr; most seasons, that quantity will get you a spot or two greater. But in addition, Brent Rooker posted a 164 wRC+. Marcell Ozuna was at 155. You don’t need to be a franchise hitter to have one franchise season on the plate.
However Guerrero is considered one of 11 gamers who’s posted a number of 160 wRC+ seasons up to now 10 years. Eight of these gamers have received at the very least one MVP Award. (The exceptions: Guerrero, Juan Soto, and Yordan Alvarez. Give it time; that’ll most likely change.) Most of these 11 gamers both are but to succeed in free company or signed long-term extensions earlier than they may get there.
The 4 who did hit free company of their prime — Bryce Harper, Aaron Choose, Shohei Ohtani, and Soto — have one thing in frequent: Every one set a brand new report for richest free agent contract in baseball historical past.
That’s the quick model for why it was all the time going to be robust to signal Vladito to an extension: He can credibly declare to be one of many rarest, most particular hitters in baseball. He’ll even be hitting free company at age 26, which implies whichever membership indicators him can be getting extra prime and fewer decline section than, say, a 30-year-old free agent. It additionally makes it palatable to unfold a contract over 13 or 15 years, moderately than eight or 10. Youth has been a promoting level for record-breaking free brokers for many years, from Soto to Harper and Manny Machado, to Alex Rodriguez all the way in which again in the beginning of this century.
So there’s this gross sales pitch on one hand. On the opposite are the explanations for warning. After I say I’d fear about signing Guerrero to a 15-year contract, I need to be particular about why. Guerrero will get numerous grief for his physique form; I don’t care about that even just a little. We’re not promoting denims right here, I heard somebody say.
What does concern me is the general participant profile of a right-right first baseman with unhealthy defensive numbers and a fine-but-not-awesome stroll fee. So, you already know, precisely the identical motive Pete Alonso needed to slink again to New York with out the final six years of the contract he wished. Add to these issues Guerrero’s incessantly troubling propensity to pound the ball into the bottom at 1,000,000 miles an hour, plus his inconsistency. These two monsters seasons had been three years aside, with numerous ugliness within the meatime.
Vladito, along with being 4 years and alter youthful than Alonso, is a greater participant by some margin. In a very good yr, the Blue Jays slugger is sweet for a further 50 factors of batting common, and by extension OBP. His profession strikeout fee is seven share factors decrease, and in 2024, Guerrero struck out solely barely greater than half as incessantly as Alonso. Removed from posting a wRC+ within the 160s twice, Alonso’s profession excessive is simply 144, and his wRC+ over the previous two seasons is 121.
However there’s a sizeable hole — greater than $700 million, because it seems — between Alonso’s contract and Soto’s. The place Guerrero deserves to go in that vary, I don’t know. Whether or not he’ll get no matter he’s price is a good larger thriller.
One factor that’s working in opposition to him is that the massive spenders don’t have wherever to place him. The 4 greatest payrolls within the league belong to the Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, and Yankees. The Dodgers are dedicated to Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. The Mets might transfer on from Alonso within the quick time period, however contemplating that Soto will seemingly want to maneuver to first base or DH ultimately, they’d be locking of their best two defensive positions by the 2030s. The Phillies have Harper at first and I’d be stunned in the event that they don’t prolong Kyle Schwarber.
Possibly the Yankees might have Guerrero maintain first base heat for 2 years after which transfer him to DH when Giancarlo Stanton’s contract expires after the 2027 season. (I wager you thought Stanton’s contract would by no means expire.) OK, that’s a good match, although the Yankees’ willingness to spend waxes and wanes yr by yr.
I’m not going to go down the road any additional, as a result of — imagine it or not — the Blue Jays are at the moment working the fifth-highest payroll within the league. They’re at the moment lined as much as hit the primary aggressive steadiness tax surcharge threshold, and a modest increase for Guerrero would most likely put them over the second.
Solely, he’s not their solely key free agent after this season. The Jays are additionally set to lose Chad Inexperienced, Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, and Bo Bichette as effectively. None of these gamers are irreplaceable, however they’re all useful. Nicely, the final three are useful at any fee. I’ll put it this fashion: I perceive why the Blue Jays is likely to be pissed off sufficient to maneuver on from Bichette, however discovering a greater beginning shortstop who makes lower than $17 million goes to be robust.
And that’s simply what it’d take to tread water. The Blue Jays — who play in an enormous market and have a deep-pocketed company proprietor — can stand to run a $250 million payroll. However for that a lot cash, it’s cheap to count on to make the playoffs at a minimal.
Take this for what it’s price, however we’ve bought the Blue Jays projected to go 82-80, with a 38.0% likelihood of constructing the postseason. This can be a fairly good crew, however it’s a brutal division that bought even much less forgiving when the Crimson Sox added Walker Buehler, Garrett Crochet, and Alex Bregman this winter.
All of that is to say the next: The Blue Jays are at a crossroads. We blinked, and that pleasant swashbuckling, free-swinging membership is getting outdated and costly. And because the Nice Second-Era Participant Cavalcade of 2018-19 (which noticed the debuts of Guerrero, Bichette, Cavan Biggio, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.), Toronto has appeared within the playoffs thrice. However “appeared” is the strongest phrase I really feel comfy utilizing, as a result of the Jays went house with out successful a recreation all thrice.
I had numerous religion within the core Toronto constructed again then, however the outcomes have been — at finest — a reasonable disappointment. That group’s going to get one final go-around. After that, Atkins, Mark Shapiro, and whichever functionaries from Rogers signal the checks are going to have to choose.
Do the Blue Jays trip this out or blow it up and take a look at one thing new? Choice A most likely means re-signing Guerrero, no matter it takes. Choice B necessitates a second alternative: Attempt to rebuild shortly, or return to the state of affairs the crew operated beneath for 20 years, beginning in 1994. These Blue Jays groups had been principally forgettable. There was all the time one thing else responsible: The division is just too stacked; the Yankees are too wealthy; the Canadian greenback is just too weak. (Not that I’m feeling nice in regards to the power of the American greenback over the subsequent few years, however that’s an issue for an additional day.)
The justifications will all the time be there. This a lot I do know past a shadow of a doubt. What stays to be seen is that this: Will the Blue Jays want them?
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