As we’ve seen with the FanGraphs Depth Charts and ATC, averaging projections from a number of techniques is a standard strategy for improved accuracy when forecasting efficiency for the present season. This text applies the identical “knowledge of the consultants” aggregation logic to mix peak projections from numerous techniques — on this case, ZiPS, Clay Davenport’s projections, and OOPSY — to construct a consensus prime hitting prospects listing.
Overview
Earlier this offseason, I printed OOPSY’s prime hitting prospects by peak projected main league wRC+. You may take a look at the article for an in depth rationalization of the methodology, however the brief model is that peak projected wRC+ is actually a 2025 projection, besides with further growing old added to it to be able to forecast how good every prospect might be at their (late-20s) peak.
Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS and Clay Davenport’s work additionally present projections that make use of growing old curves, main league equivalencies, and regression to undertaking future efficiency for prospects. Projecting baseball gamers includes many decisions about what to incorporate and exclude, and how one can weigh or account for various issues. As an example, each system makes use of its personal taste of growing old curve and main league equivalencies. ZiPS makes use of growing old curves particular to every kind of participant, whereas Davenport’s system and OOPSY apply a extra basic growing old curve throughout gamers. In contrast to OOPSY, ZiPS and Davenport’s projections additionally seize school efficiency, so I are inclined to belief these techniques extra for the 2024 draft class provided that these gamers have little, if any, skilled information. OOPSY additionally provides its personal distinctive methodological quirks. Given the methodological variety throughout projection techniques, averaging them tends to be an accuracy-enhancing strategy.
You will have seen the annual ZiPS High 100 Prospects listing that was printed yesterday. That listing focuses on total prospect worth, together with defensive worth, whereas this text focuses completely on offense. Dan and Clay had been each form sufficient to offer me with peak hitting projections for this piece. To rank the prospects, I took a mean of their peak OPS+ projections from the three techniques, as this was the simplest metric to check throughout techniques, despite the fact that FanGraphs is mostly a pro-wRC+ publication. OPS+ is a barely much less refined model of wRC+, and is on the same scale — a 100 OPS+ is league common, with every level above or beneath 100 representing one share level above or beneath the league common. My peak wRC+ and peak OPS+ projections are all inside 4 factors of one another. I needed to make some minor tweaks to harmonize the Davenport information in order that it was on the identical scale — rescaling Clay’s EQA metric to OPS+ — so you must think about me solely liable for any poor selections made en path to the ultimate output. Gamers with out stateside skilled expertise had been excluded.
With out additional ado, listed below are the consensus High 50 hitting prospects by peak projected main league OPS+:
Consensus High Prospects by Peak Projected MLB OPS+
Common of peak main league OPS+ projections from ZiPS, OOPSY, and Clay Davenport.
A number of different gamers advantage honorable point out, as all of them have no less than a 110 consensus peak undertaking OPS+:
Some Stray Observations
Trying on the 300 gamers with a projection throughout all three techniques, the correlation between ZiPS and Davenport is .68, versus .71 between ZiPS and OOPSY. The correlation between OOPSY and Davenport is .84. The techniques assume the same common participant and agree that the present crop of baseball’s prime prospects undertaking for round a 130 OPS+ at peak.
Emmanuel Rodriguez, Nick Kurtz, and Samuel Basallo ranked first for ZiPS, Davenport, and OOPSY, respectively. The consensus prime 4 — Emmanuel Rodriguez, Basallo, Lazaro Montes, and Roman Anthony — are the one prospects to rank among the many prime 10 for every of the three techniques.
OOPSY’s prime 5 prospects, so as, are Basallo, Jasson Domínguez, Montes, Kristian Campbell, and Anthony. Relative to the opposite two techniques, OOPSY is most bullish on Kevin McGonigle, Domínguez, Moises Ballesteros, and Matt Shaw. Conversely, it’s least bullish on Travis Bazzana, Christian Moore, and Kurtz, however as I don’t account for school efficiency, I’d simply facet with ZiPS and Davenport over OOPSY on that trio. OOPSY projecting Domínguez so effectively will be partly defined by the system’s inclusion of his lightning-quick bat velocity, however ZiPS additionally had him in its prime 5.
The ZiPS prime 5 prospects by peak OPS+, so as, are Emmanuel Rodriguez, Bryce Eldridge, Eric Bitonti, Montes, and Domínguez. Comparatively, ZiPS is essentially the most bullish on Bitonti, Arjun Nimmala, Moore, Yeremi Cabrera, and Emmanuel Rodriguez; it’s the least bullish on McGonigle, Mike Boeve, and Colt Emerson. Emerson and McGonigle nonetheless rated extremely on yesterday’s ZiPS High 100 due to their defensive chops, whereas ZiPS’ enthusiasm for Robert Calaz is extra tempered after accounting for his play within the outfield, per my conversations with Dan. ZiPS has three-year forecasts accessible on FanGraphs, that are price testing for comparability, however three years usually isn’t far sufficient out to cowl the height for many prospects.
Davenport’s prime 5 prospects, so as, are Kurtz, Anthony, Xavier Isaac, Luke Adams, and Emmanuel Rodriguez. Davenport’s system is, comparatively talking, essentially the most optimistic about Bazzana, Kurtz, Sal Stewart, and Adams, whereas it’s the least optimistic about Domínguez, Cam Smith, and Coby Mayo. Davenport additionally provides six-year forecasts for every participant, which will be discovered right here.
Wrapping Up
In comparison with taking a look at a single projection in isolation, combining peak projections from numerous techniques produces a consensus listing that evokes larger confidence and (usually) higher forecasts. Because the creator of one of many techniques featured on this piece, I definitely really feel extra assured in my projection for a participant after seeing it align with these of different (smarter) prognosticators — or with the evaluations of scouts.
The consensus listing provides a snapshot of the present state of public-facing peak forecasts for hitting prospects. When contemplating any variations between it and a very good scouting-based listing like Eric Longenhagen’s, it’s fascinating to think about what could have been omitted of the height OPS+ projections (aside from protection, naturally): swing velocity and different Statcast information for minor leaguers, scouting grades, novice statistics, etcetera. Giving extra weight to Statcast information in all probability explains a part of why scouts are usually larger on Sebastian Walcott, for instance. Whereas projection techniques excel at accounting for the exact relative affect of various information factors in a scientific means, they may by no means take into consideration the identical breadth of information a scout can. In any case, enhancements in prospect projections may fairly come from the inclusion of a few of these lacking however quantifiable information factors.