Padres Bolster Rotation by Signing Pivetta and Hart, however Rumors Gained’t Stop

After 4 season’s price of high-profile trades, extensions, and free agent signings, the Padres have had a really quiet winter save for the headlines that their possession battle has generated. On Wednesday, the day that their pitchers and catchers reported to their spring coaching facility in Peoria, Arizona, the staff made by far its greatest transfer of the offseason, signing free agent Nick Pivetta to a four-year, $55 million deal. They adopted that up on Thursday by inking lefty Kyle Hart to a one-year cope with an choice.

Taken collectively, the additions seem to arrange a commerce of Dylan Stop, the highest starter on final 12 months’s 93-win Wild Card staff and a pending free agent this winter. Nevertheless, common supervisor A.J. Preller indicated that’s not the plan proper now, telling reporters on Thursday, “He’s a really huge a part of our membership. The additions the final couple days complement what’s a extremely good rotation. That’s our focus right here going ahead — having that robust rotation.”

After all, any choice to maintain Stop might be revisited if the Padres obtain a suggestion they’ll’t refuse, or in the event that they fall out of rivalry this summer season. It must also be identified that Michael King, the staff’s second-best starter in 2024, is a commerce candidate as nicely; he also can change into a free agent after this season if he declines his finish of a mutual choice for 2026.

Pivetta, who turns 32 on Friday, has spent the previous 4 seasons and alter with the Crimson Sox, who acquired him from the Phillies on August 21, 2020. Final 12 months, he posted a 4.14 ERA and 4.07 FIP with a 28.9% strikeout fee in 145 2/3 innings for the Crimson Sox; he made 26 begins and one aid look, lacking a month early within the season resulting from a flexor pressure. Hart, who turned 32 in November, was drafted by the Crimson Sox within the nineteenth spherical in 2016 and made 4 main league appearances for the staff in 2020. (He was rocked for a 15.55 ERA in 11 innings.) He pitched six years within the group earlier than opting totally free company, cut up 2023 between the Phillies and Mariners’ organizations, after which spent final 12 months with the KBO’s NC Dinos. He was excellent with the Dinos, posting a 2.69 ERA (55 ERA-), 3.28 FIP, and 28.8% strikeout fee in 157 innings. For his efforts, he received the league’s Choi Dong-won Award, the KBO’s equal to the Cy Younger.

I’ll get again to the 2 pitchers’ performances in a bit, however first some context is so as. Pivetta and Hart are simply the fourth and fifth free brokers the Padres have signed to main league offers this winter — all throughout the previous three weeks — with Pivetta the one one to obtain a multi-year assure. The Padres re-signed catcher Elias Díaz to a $3.5 million contract on January 28, and added outfielder Jason Heyward and outfielder/first baseman Connor Joe to $1 million offers, plus incentives, on February 7. Additionally they signed outfielder/first baseman Gavin Sheets and catcher Martín Maldonado to minor league offers throughout the previous month. Not one of the new gamers beside Pivetta produced greater than Heyward’s 0.8 WAR final 12 months or undertaking to supply greater than 0.5 WAR in 2025. That’s not quite a bit to write down residence about. The possession dispute, which has pitted Peter Seidler’s widow, Sheel Seidler, towards his brothers Matthew and Robert Seidler, was cited by Jurickson Profar as a motive he didn’t return following a stellar season, and has been blamed for costing the staff its likelihood to signal Roki Sasaki, who as an alternative selected the Dodgers.

Pivetta’s contract and a pair of.0 WAR ZiPS projection outdo all the aforementioned one-year guys put collectively. His deal, which is pending a bodily, is closely backloaded, with a pair of opt-outs inbuilt, a construction that in all probability owes one thing to the comparatively late timing. He and Alex Bregman — who agreed to a three-year, $120 million contract with the Crimson Sox on Wednesday night time — are the final two gamers within the higher half of our High 50 Free Brokers listing to signal. After making $7.5 million whereas pitching for the Crimson Sox final 12 months, Pivetta declined a $21.05 million qualifying supply. As a substitute he’ll obtain a $3 million signing bonus and only a $1 million wage for 2025, then leap to $19 million for ’26. He can decide out after that season, or after 2027, when he’ll make $14 million; he’ll obtain $19 million in ’28 if the deal remains to be in impact.

That’s a $13.75 million common annual worth for the four-year deal, inserting Pivetta only a bit under each the $14 million projected by Ben Clemens and the $15 million by our crowdsource for our High 50 train — that in a winter when many of the signed free brokers have crushed each flavors of our projections. Nonetheless, the aforementioned projections had been for 3 years, so Pivetta’s complete assure is $10 million to $13 million larger. The creatively structured deal helps give the Padres some flexibility in relation to money movement. After paring again payroll within the wake of the November 2023 dying of Seidler in addition to the collapse of their tv contract with Diamond Sports activities, they slipped under the primary Aggressive Stability Tax threshold final 12 months, breaking a two-year streak of paying. They’re again up above the primary threshold ($241 million) now, and solely about $1.7 million wanting the second threshold ($261 million), although their precise payroll is round $52 million under that:

As for Hart, who positioned forty eighth on our High 50 Free Brokers listing, he’ll obtain $1 million for 2025, with a $5 million membership choice for ’26 and escalators that may take that to $7.5 million based mostly upon video games began. He’s additionally acquired a $500,000 buyout if the choice is declined, and a $250,000 task bonus if he’s traded.

With Joe Musgrove out for the season resulting from Tommy John surgical procedure, Pivetta initiatives to be the Padres’ fourth starter behind Stop, King, and Yu Darvish, with Hart, Randy Vásquez, and Matt Waldron the highest candidates for the fifth spot, and relievers Jhony Brito and Stephen Kolek getting stretched out this spring as nicely. That will be a stable rotation, with a Depth Charts projection of 12.6 WAR that ranks thirteenth, nevertheless it could be higher than that. Pushed by Stop (4.8 WAR) and King (4.0 WAR) — who respectively completed fourth and seventh within the NL Cy Younger voting — final 12 months’s group ranked fifth within the majors with 13.8 WAR regardless of receiving simply 16 begins from Darvish and 19 from Musgrove; a fuller season from the previous and a wholesome alternative for the latter (as Pivetta seems to be) might enhance upon the mixed 2.5 WAR these two offered.

The bang-bang additions of Pivetta and Hart do appear to portend a commerce of Stop, a pending free agent who reportedly drew curiosity from the Orioles, Twins, Mets, Cubs, and Crimson Sox this winter. He’s making $13.75 million, so a commerce wouldn’t be sufficient to drop the Padres under the primary tax threshold by itself, however it might deliver this 12 months’s precise payroll under $200 million. King is making $7.75 million with a $15 million mutual choice, and whereas there’s additionally been loads of curiosity in him this previous winter, the Padres are believed to be much less inclined to commerce him.

As for the pitchers in query, let’s dispense with Hart first. His 182 strikeouts and 22.8% strikeout-walk differential each led the KBO, whereas his 2.68 ERA, 3.28 FIP, and 28.8% strikeout fee all positioned second. Right here’s a part of what Eric Longenhagen needed to say about him for our High 50 Free Brokers listing:

The low-slot lefty made some modifications to how he deploys his arsenal in comparison with when he was final in affiliated ball. Hart was taking a slider-first strategy whereas he was with Seattle however pitched extra off his 90-mph fastball in Korea. It allowed his well-commanded slider, his finest providing, for use extra typically as a chase pitch. Hart’s changeup generated plus chase and miss charges in 2024, however that pitch lives off his command of it slightly than the pitch’s motion. Hart can fluctuate the velocity and form of his breaking stuff by working in a cutter and a not often thrown gradual curveball. Hart seems like a fifth or sixth starter sort, although there’s a danger his fastball-oriented strategy received’t be viable towards huge league hitters resulting from his lack of velocity.

Hart gave the impression to be a candidate to observe within the footsteps of Erick Fedde, who after profitable the 2023 Choi Dong-won Award inked a two-year, $15 million cope with the White Sox, then was traded to the Cardinals forward of final 12 months’s commerce deadline. For our High 50 listing, Ben projected a three-year, $24 million deal and our crowdsource anticipated a two-year, $14.5 one. Hart, who doesn’t have the draft pedigree or main league expertise of Fedde, as an alternative got here in an order of magnitude under that.

As for Pivetta, 2024 was a Very Nick Pivetta Season. In eight years within the majors (together with only a five-game 2020 season), he’s by no means posted an ERA under 4.04 or a FIP under 3.96; he set each of these profession lows in 2023 whereas making 16 begins and 22 aid appearances for Boston. The 6-foot-5, 215-pound righty is understood for having higher stuff than has been mirrored in his performances, although with the latest overhaul of the Stuff+ mannequin, his grades there are down from the stratosphere:

We’ve a extra full explainer about Stuff+ modifications within the pipeline, however as Eno Sarris famous within the linked thread above, the size has modified in order that 10 factors in both route of the 100 common represents one normal deviation (as is the case for pitchingBot), which means that Pivetta’s slider nonetheless grades about two normal deviations higher than the norm. The mannequin’s addition of arm angle, the decoupling of fastball motion from its consideration of secondary pitches, and the addition of a contact mannequin additionally have an effect. As Eno defined to me, Pivetta’s arm angle (56 levels based on Statcast) raises the expectation for his fastball rise; the place he was getting about 4 inches greater than the league common based mostly on his launch level, he’s now getting about two inches greater than common based mostly on extra particular knowledge about his arm slot. With that fastball motion not included when contemplating his secondary pitches — the mannequin now solely considers fastball velocity related to a pitcher’s secondaries — his grades have taken a success. Notably, his curveball is now thought of two normal deviations under common as an alternative of above common.

Regardless of all of that, what does stand out, significantly through the brand new Stuff+ mannequin, is Pivetta’s improved command/location grades relative to 2023. He trimmed his stroll fee from 8.5% in 2023 (proper round his profession degree) to a career-low 6.1% in 2024. Whereas his strikeout fee fell from 31.2% to twenty-eight.9% (nonetheless fourth within the AL amongst pitchers with at the least 140 IP), his strikeout-walk differential rose 0.2 factors, to 22.9% (third among the many similar group). His huge situation — and one which the brand new Stuff+ mannequin picks up on — is how homer-prone he’s. He served up 1.73 gophers per 9 in 2024, the very best of any pitcher in both league at that 140-inning cutoff, and up from 1.45 in ’23. Shifting from Fenway Park to Petco Park might assist a bit in that regard.

Right here’s a have a look at the ZiPS projection Dan Szymborski provided:

The ZiPS contract suggestion for that projection is simply $30 million, however that’s as a result of the system is bearish about his innings. Elevating Pivetta’s 2025 projection to match our Depth Charts forecast for 154 innings (which will increase his complete for subsequent seasons as nicely) boosts the recommended contract to $40 million. Pivetta appears to have finished nicely for himself even earlier than contemplating the added worth of the opt-outs.

In the meantime, as a result of he obtained a qualifying supply, the Padres will forfeit their second-round choose (no. 64 total) within the upcoming newbie draft in addition to $500,000 from their 2026 worldwide bonus pool. The Crimson Sox will obtain a compensation choose within the 2025 draft, no. 77 total.

The Padres have been one of many majors’ most compelling groups in recent times because of possession’s assist of Preller’s aggressive acquisitions. That’s made this winter’s inactivity so conspicuous and disappointing, but when the Padres do preserve the present band collectively within the wake of those strikes, they at the least look ready to compete for a playoff spot.