Angels and Padres Search for Upside on the Left Facet

The Angels had been the busiest workforce in baseball in the course of the first month of the offseason, signing Yusei Kikuchi, Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Hendricks, and Kevin Newman, and buying and selling for Jorge Soler. Then, after a quiet interval all through December and January, they returned to motion final week, agreeing to a one-year, $5 million pact with Yoán Moncada. He’ll reportedly take over for Anthony Rendon as their main starter at third base.

In the meantime, the Padres are waking from a good longer hibernation. Whereas the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Giants have been onerous at work bettering their rosters this winter, the Padres have been quiet. Their solely notable transfer previous to February was re-signing catcher Elias Díaz. On Friday, they lastly broke their silence and added not only one, however two main league free brokers: Connor Joe and Jason Heyward. The 2 are anticipated to share duties in left subject. Joe will earn a assured $1 million on his one-year deal. The phrases of Heyward’s contract, whereas presumably fairly related, haven’t but been reported.

Angels Signal Yoán Moncada

We must always have seen this coming. Again in December, the Angels reportedly expressed curiosity in a trio of third basemen on the offseason commerce market: Nolan Arenado, Eugenio Suárez, and Alec Bohm. They had been additionally linked to a pair of big-name free agent sluggers getting into their age-30 seasons: Pete Alonso and Anthony Santander. So, after all, the Angels discovered a approach to get the very best a mediocre approximation of each worlds.

Moncada has had a profession trajectory that few, if any, can relate to. There was a time when his star was so vibrant that he was usually talked about in the identical breath as fellow worldwide phenom Shohei Ohtani. At the same time as a teen, he seemed like such a stud that the Crimson Sox shattered worldwide signing precedent to offer him a $31.5 million bonus, which price them one other $31.5 million in penalties. Lower than two years later, he was such a extremely regarded prospect that some questioned if the Crimson Sox made a deadly mistake by buying and selling him to the White Sox for Chris Sale.

In fact, Moncada wasn’t the primary prospect to garner a lot hype, nor was he the primary prime prospect who failed to succeed in his full potential. What makes him so attention-grabbing is that he did uncover his ceiling – he simply couldn’t keep there. In 2019, his age-24 marketing campaign, Moncada performed 132 video games, swatted 25 homers, swiped 10 bases, and produced a 139 wRC+ en path to a 5.2-WAR season. That’s the form of participant the Crimson Sox thought they had been signing once they gave him a record-setting bonus. That’s the form of participant the White Sox thought they had been buying once they gave up one of many best beginning pitchers of this technology to get him.

Unhappy to say, Moncada has by no means been that form of participant once more. Everybody has a principle about the reason for his decline, from lengthy COVID to the deadened ball, however whatever the rationalization, the very fact of the matter is that Moncada was not in a position to make a constant impression for the White Sox from 2020-24. His bat dropped off a cliff in 2020. He bounced again to put up 3.7 WAR in 2021, however after that, accidents and underperformance grew to become the defining themes of his late 20s. From 2022-23, he put up an 86 wRC+ and simply 2.0 WAR over 196 video games.

Moncada bought off to a pleasant begin in 2024, slashing .282/.364/.410 over the primary two weeks of the season earlier than a left adductor pressure compelled him to the injured checklist. Though he was initially anticipated to return in July, his rehab was placed on pause for six weeks in the summertime, first because of no matter on earth “anticipated soreness” is and later as a result of he was oh-so-vaguely “nonetheless form of feeling one thing.” He lastly bought again to Chicago in mid-September, after tearing up Triple-A on a rehab project, solely to sit down on the bench for the worst workforce in trendy baseball historical past.

The White Sox had a dozen extra video games to trip out and roughly 450 plate appearances to fill. And but Moncada appeared in simply a type of video games and took simply a type of journeys to the plate. When you blinked on the proper moments, you won’t have realized he ever got here off the injured checklist in any respect. Over these ultimate 12 video games, White Sox batters produced a 70 wRC+ and -0.6 WAR. Their designated hitters went 9-for-50 with a 49 wRC+. Their third basemen had been even worse, going 4-for-44 with a -2 wRC+. But, the one work the White Sox provided Moncada was a Twelfth-inning pinch-running gig in opposition to the Angels on September 18. He struck out the next inning in his solely plate look of the month. Nonetheless, he by some means completed the season as the best offensive performer on the workforce, due to course he did:

All that to say, Moncada’s efficiency in 2024 can’t inform us a lot about what to anticipate from him in 2025. May he be the 5.2-WAR participant we noticed in 2019, and even simply the three.7-WAR participant we noticed in 2021? I imply, certain, I suppose. He’s completed it earlier than, and he gained’t even flip 30 till Could. However Moncada put up 2.2 WAR over 208 video games from 2022-24, and that’s the form of participant our Depth Charts projections anticipate him to proceed to be in 2025 (1.3 WAR in 118 video games). ZiPS is somewhat larger on him, whereas Steamer is somewhat decrease, however finally, we’re speaking a few slightly-below-average on a regular basis participant – if he can keep on the sector sufficient to play every single day. For a lot of groups, that wouldn’t be sufficient to crack the beginning lineup. For the Angels, nonetheless, Moncada might be a pleasant addition.

From about 2015 to 2020, Rendon was one of many few third basemen one might need picked over Moncada. The latter was a future celebrity, however the former was already enjoying at that degree. Nowadays, Rendon is without doubt one of the few third baseman upon whom Moncada is, extra possible than not, a significant improve. Right here’s how the 2 evaluate in response to a number of projection methods:

Saddled with unfair expectations as a teen, Moncada has developed a little bit of a repute as a prospect bust. The reality, nonetheless, is that he was price each penny the Crimson Sox paid him; they used him to get Sale, and Sale helped them win a World Collection. What’s extra, he gave the White Sox 13.8 WAR over elements of eight seasons and contributed to the workforce’s first two playoff runs since 2008. General, he supplied Chicago about $110 million in worth (utilizing a simplistic $8 million per WAR estimate) whereas incomes just a bit over $70 million in wage. Maybe he didn’t turn into every little thing he might have been, however he gave each of his groups greater than he took. He can do the identical for the Angels in 2025.

Padres Signal Jason Heyward and Connor Joe

On Opening Day in 2023, Juan Soto stood in left subject for San Diego. The next season, the Padres braced for what might have been the worst downgrade since The Contemporary Prince recast Aunt Viv. Jurickson Profar, he of the bottom WAR in baseball the 12 months prior, was Soto’s alternative. The Friars dropped from first to thirtieth on our left subject positional energy rankings. But, issues generally have a humorous manner of understanding. Towards all odds, the 2024 Padres had the highest left fielder within the Nationwide League, in response to WAR, for the second 12 months in a row.

Sadly, the Padres then discovered themselves seeking to change their All-Star left fielder for a second consecutive winter. This time round, their answer is a platoon of the lefty-batting Heyward and the righty-batting Joe. And you understand, for what it’s price, each Heyward and Joe have higher projections now than Profar did getting into 2024:

To be crystal clear, these projections say way more about Profar’s exceptional 2024 season than they do about both Heyward or Joe. They don’t recommend that Heyward and Joe this 12 months are more likely to outperform Profar final season. Nor do they recommend that both of them has extra upside than Profar did at the moment final 12 months. Heyward was an All-Star caliber participant in his early 20s, and to his credit score, he has loved a number of bounce-back seasons over the previous a number of years. Certainly, he’s solely two years faraway from a powerful 2023, when he put up a 120 wRC+ and a couple of.3 WAR in 124 video games with the Dodgers. Nonetheless, his Thirty eighth-percentile xwOBA that 12 months advised he was due for regression, and regress he did. Over 87 video games with the Dodgers and Astros, he produced a 94 wRC+ and simply 0.8 WAR in 2024. Whereas the Padres are certainly hoping to get one thing just like the 2023 model of Heyward, a repeat of his 2024 is way extra possible. He’s already 35 years outdated (he’ll flip 36 in August), and I’m extra satisfied by his total 91 wRC+ and .301 xwOBA from 2021-24 than I’m by his transient resurgence in 2023.

Joe is three years youthful than Heyward however has by no means proven something near Heyward’s All-Star ceiling. In truth, he has by no means even had a 12 months as robust as Heyward’s 2023. (There’s a cause the Pirates non-tendered Joe quite than pay his projected $3.2 million arbitration wage.) All issues thought of, Joe’s manufacturing over the primary 4 correct seasons of his profession has been fairly just like Heyward’s declining efficiency in the identical timeframe. Joe has been the extra constant hitter, however Heyward makes up the distinction as a greater baserunner and outfield defender:

Heyward is used to working in a platoon; since 2021, solely 12.9% of his plate appearances have come in opposition to left-handed pitchers. Joe, alternatively, may benefit from much less publicity to opposite-handed hurlers. He has a profession 107 wRC+ in opposition to lefties and a 91 wRC+ in opposition to righties. His managers in Colorado and Pittsburgh made an effort to protect him from right-handed pitching, however they haven’t had sufficient high quality choices to make use of him in a real platoon function; 38.2% of his profession plate appearances have come in opposition to lefties. Excluding his eight-game cup of espresso with the Giants in 2019, when 14 of his 16 plate appearances got here in opposition to lefties, he has by no means had a season during which the vast majority of his plate appearances have include the platoon benefit.

Are the Padres such a workforce to vary that? They need to be, though that’s contingent on their making additional additions. Ideally, Heyward would take the majority of the work in left subject, well being permitting, whereas Joe would deal with the brief aspect of the platoon. Nonetheless, the Padres would possibly want Joe for extra than simply outfield duties – and greater than only a platoon function. Contemplating his defensive success at first base (5 DRS, 2 FRV in 170 profession video games), and the huge gap San Diego has at designated hitter, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Joe enjoying loads of first with Luis Arraez because the DH. Joe’s projected 95 wRC+ (per Steamer) in opposition to right-handers could be pitiful at first base, however the Padres don’t at present have many higher choices for both first base or DH — whichever place that Arraez will not be occupying. The one participant on their 40-man roster with the next projected wRC+ in opposition to righties who isn’t already penciled into the lineup at a unique place is Tirso Ornelas, a prospect who has but to make his MLB debut.

If San Diego goes to beat its 33.2% playoff odds with out making any main additions, it should want somebody to step as much as change its best hitter from 2024. If that hero exists, it virtually actually gained’t be Heyward or Joe. As a substitute, that manufacturing might want to come from Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, or, in a best-case state of affairs, some mixture of all three. Nonetheless, Heyward and Joe are confirmed large league gamers, and there’s little question the Padres wanted extra of these on their roster. And hey, you by no means know. It’s not so way back we had been saying the identical factor about Profar.