Kansas Metropolis’s Outfield Is a Missed Alternative

By all affordable accounts, the 2024 Kansas Metropolis Royals had a profitable season. Fortune often frowns upon a 100-loss workforce that makes a bunch of low-key free agent signings, however that was not the case for the Royals. The veterans starters they added, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, joined Cole Ragans to make up the most effective top-of-the-rotation trios within the majors, and Bobby Witt Jr. ascended from promising younger star to MVP candidate. They made some sensible deadline strikes to bolster their bullpen, and so they benefitted from some nice surprises alongside the best way. Because of all of these items, the Royals received 30 extra video games in 2024 than they did the yr earlier than, and in consequence, they made the playoffs for the primary time since they received the 2015 World Sequence. Whereas there was no inconceivable sprint to the World Sequence this time, the Royals did not less than eradicate the Baltimore Orioles, and though they fell to the Yankees within the ALDS, all 4 video games have been shut. Ethical victories might not depend for a lot in skilled sports activities, however Kansas Metropolis followers should be delighted with what this workforce completed final season.

Nevertheless, profitable doesn’t imply good, and the Royals did have some vital flaws. Probably the most obvious one was a workforce offense that was filled with holes. The Royals scored sufficient runs to assist their glorious pitching, sufficient to rank a wholesome sixth within the American League in runs per sport (4.54), but it surely was a particularly unbalanced effort. Witt carried greater than his fair proportion of the general load, along with his 10.4 WAR accounting for greater than half of the overall 20 WAR Kansas Metropolis received from its place gamers. From three of the 4 most offense-heavy positions, first base, the outfield corners, and designated hitter, the Royals obtained an embarrassing lack of manufacturing. First base was positive, if unspectacular, manned by Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez, however the outfield corners mixed for an OPS south of .650 and a brutal -2.5 WAR, and Kansas Metropolis DHs mixed for a 77 wRC+, the fourth-worst manufacturing within the majors from that place. With Witt’s season and a naked stage of competence from these three positions, Kansas Metropolis’s offense ought to’ve been one of many prime three or 4 within the AL. As an alternative, what the Royals received from the 2 nook outfield spots and DH was — and I’ll put it generously — under a naked stage of competence.

If the Royals had obtained even simply 1 WAR at every of the three positions, they’d have netted 5.5 extra WAR that what they really received. Placing that into context, greater than half of Witt’s worth final season went towards offsetting the manufacturing the Royals didn’t get from these three positions.

The Royals did little or no this offseason to handle these deficiencies. Their commerce for Jonathan India was a good suggestion, but it surely’s inadequate by itself. India has performed solely second base within the majors and has by no means performed the outfield as an expert. Proper now, RosterResource initiatives him to be Kansas Metropolis’s on a regular basis DH, however he’s anticipated to get reps in left discipline throughout spring coaching, in addition to at second and third base. If India performs the keystone, incumbent second baseman Michael Massey would doubtless transfer to a nook outfield spot; neither participant initiatives all that nicely as a nook outfielder. Wherever India performs, he can handle solely one of many three woeful positions on the roster.

The Royals is probably not ZiPS, however certainly it isn’t controversial to counsel {that a} workforce with wins within the 80s and main weak spots must be lively in free company. As an alternative, they haven’t signed a single free agent hitter to a serious league contract this offseason, with their “huge” signing being Cavan Biggio. Nor did they make any trades to handle the state of affairs past the one for India. There aren’t any prime and even good prospects coming as much as take these jobs. Within the curiosity of equity, I ought to point out that the Royals did make a three-year provide to Anthony Santander, however is that the ultimate give you make for the kind of participant you completely want to have in your workforce?

How awful is Kansas Metropolis’s nook outfield state of affairs? Properly, after I was working numbers for my Alex Bregman piece earlier this week, ZiPS thought the Royals would most profit from signing him, regardless of their not being determined for a 3rd baseman. The truth is, I ran the identical train for a lot of the winter’s finest hitters out there, and principally any good free agent who both performed the outfield or a place the place somebody already on the roster may transfer to the outfield projected as most impactful in Kansas Metropolis. Going again to Santander for a second, ZiPS estimated a bump of 17 proportion factors in playoff chance for the Royals with Santander (40% to 57%). To place that into context, it’s a bigger projected 2025 enchancment, when it comes to playoff chance, than each single free agent signing this offseason however one, no matter place. You possibly can most likely guess what that one different signing was, however even that was a detailed name, with the Mets getting a projected 19 factors of playoff chance from signing Juan Soto. Santander’s alternative in Baltimore, Tyler O’Neill, would’ve had a better influence in Kansas Metropolis than all however three signings: Soto to the Mets, Corbin Burnes to the Diamondbacks, and Max Fried to the Yankees.

Because it appears proper now, the 2 gamers most chargeable for these Royals issues, MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe, are more likely to get a ton of plate appearances in 2025 as nicely. That heavy dose of emoji shrug struck me as uncommon habits for a workforce coming off a playoff look, so I made a decision to test on this sense of mine.

We’ve position-specific information going again to 2002, so beginning in that yr, I appeared on the positional WAR for each single workforce that made the playoffs. I omitted DH for NL groups through the non-DH seasons, since most of them had one thing like -0.5 WAR in 45 plate appearances. I additionally excluded 2020 as an entire due to the small pattern measurement of video games and sudden irregularity.

Among the many 222 playoff groups, 90 of them had a single place under alternative stage in WAR. Designated hitter was the place that playoff groups most frequently obtained lower than replacement-level manufacturing, with 28 groups getting adverse worth from their DHs. Having a number of positions under alternative was rarer, with solely 20 of the playoff groups struggling that illness. However the listing of playoff groups with three positions under alternative stage options the 2024 Kansas Metropolis Royals and solely the 2024 Kansas Metropolis Royals.

Now, it’s price mentioning that the Royals aren’t skinflints. They’re projected to hold a $170 million luxurious tax payroll as soon as all is claimed and carried out. However as a result of they’re spending greater than ever earlier than and have already dedicated a big quantity of future payroll to their franchise participant — whose wage is ready to quickly improve over the following handful of seasons — now could be the time when the Royals must be pot dedicated. Not spending extra to make the 2025 Royals a successful hand imperils the $170 million they’ve already invested within the workforce. Each workforce with a younger überstar ought to take a look at the Angels and their time with peak Mike Trout as a cautionary story, not a template. A phenom should be a cause to make your workforce higher, not a cause to make your workforce simply ok to have an opportunity to perhaps sneak into the playoffs.