Now Tommy Pham Is a Pirate, Yarrrgh

Tommy Pham is on the transfer once more. The well-traveled outfielder reportedly agreed to a one-year, $4.025 million cope with the Pirates on Thursday, that means that he’ll be a part of his ninth staff over the previous 5 seasons and the tenth of his 12-year profession. Previous expertise suggests he ought to most likely hire as an alternative of purchase.

Pham, who will flip 37 on March 8, frolicked with three totally different groups in 2024. Regardless of a really stable 2023 displaying — .256/.328/.446 (109 wRC+) with 16 homers, 22 steals, and 1.9 WAR — with the Mets and Diamondbacks, he went unsigned by way of spring coaching earlier than lastly inking a cope with the White Sox in mid-April. He escaped their record-setting futility when he was traded again to the Cardinals (who initially drafted him in 2006) as a part of the three-way swap that despatched Michael Kopech and Tommy Edman to the Dodgers, after which was plucked off of waivers by the Royals on August 31. Not less than he’s gotten back-to-back journeys to the postseason due to all that shifting round.

Whether or not it was as a result of he missed spring coaching, by no means stayed in a single place for lengthy, or was more and more topic to the ravages of ageing — spending time round these White Sox and Cardinals groups might take years off a person’s life — Pham didn’t play effectively in 2024. He hit simply .248/.305/.368, setting profession lows in on-base proportion and stroll charge (7.3%) in addition to a full-season low in slugging proportion. (He slugged .312 in 125 plate appearances in the course of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.) He was principally alternative degree in 2024, and his 91 wRC+ match into the bizarre sample he’s proven over the previous half-decade, with above-average seasons in odd-numbered years and below-average seasons in even-numbered ones. Possibly that bodes effectively for the Buccos.

Pham’s numbers include many unsettling indicators. He’s a really disciplined hitter, chasing simply 18.2% of pitches outdoors the zone, the sixth-lowest charge from among the many 207 hitters with no less than 400 plate appearances; his 40.5% swing charge was eleventh lowest. But pitchers have been unafraid to problem him within the zone; he ranked ninth with 54.8% of pitches there. He didn’t do a ton of harm with them: His .423 slugging proportion on in-zone pitches was 43 factors beneath the foremost league common, and his .298 wOBA on such pitches was 19 factors beneath common. His total high quality of contact fell off notably from 2023 to ’24:

All through his profession, Pham has made onerous contact constantly, with numbers which have nearly invariably positioned within the eighty fifth percentile or greater. The 2024 season marked a departure from that, as his exit velocity dropped by practically two miles per hour. It nonetheless positioned within the seventieth percentile, however that was down from two straight seasons within the 93rd percentile. Equally, his career-low hard-hit charge marked a drop from the 89th percentile to sixty fourth, and his career-low barrel charge from the 69th to the forty third. His xSLG was his second-lowest mark, and he even fell wanting that by 39 factors. As his double-digit common launch angle suggests, he acquired beneath too many pitches; his 23.6% beneath charge represented a profession excessive and a 7.3-point leap from 2023.

If Pham’s 2024 efficiency seems like an aberration in that mild, his breakdown by pitch teams suggests a extra alarming sample. Usually, I’m not an enormous fan of Statcast’s aggregations as a result of they have a tendency to paper over some nuances, however woof, over the previous 4 seasons, Pham has been weak towards something that’s not a fastball of some sort:

Except for his 2023 displaying towards breaking balls, Pham has posted wOBAs and xwOBAs of .280 or decrease towards breaking and offspeed stuff yearly for the final 4 seasons. Put one other means, solely twice has he slugged greater than .309 towards a non-fastball pitch group throughout that span (breaking balls in 2023 and offspeed stuff in ’21). Circling again to an commentary I made above, when pitchers acquired forward of him after which landed breaking balls or offspeed pitches within the zone, Pham managed only a .249 wOBA, 28 factors beneath the league common, and for the 2021–24 interval he was 22 factors beneath common (.251 vs. .273).

On the opposite aspect of the ball, Pham’s defensive metrics weren’t good both, as he set a profession worst with -10 DRS and was additionally beneath common when it comes to FRV (-5) and UZR (-2.6). However right here I’m inclined to chop him appreciable slack. After enjoying simply 136 innings in middle subject from 2021–23, he spent 223 innings there for the White Sox, principally from late April to early June when Luis Robert Jr. was sidelined by damage; that accounts for -7 DRS and -2 FRV. He was unhealthy in proper (-4 DRS, -4 FRV) as effectively, however these 387 2/3 innings have been unfold over three groups and adjoining to seven totally different middle fielders. Even whereas he’s been common to beneath common throughout his nomadic years, it’s troublesome look good beneath these circumstances.

Pham figures to be in some sort of proper subject job share with the Pirates, who non-tendered Bryan De La Cruz and Connor Joe in November. Bryan Reynolds is slated to begin in left with Oneil Cruz set for his first full season in middle after shifting from shortstop late final 12 months. Pham’s platoon splits have been nearly useless even up to now two seasons. (He was notably efficient towards lefties with the White Sox however slumped mightily towards them in his subsequent stops.) The candidates to share time with him in Pittsburgh are all lefties, particularly Joshua Palacios, Jack Suwinski, and Adam Frazier. None of them carried out effectively in 2024; Palacios’ 93 wRC+ got here in simply 78 plate appearances whereas every of the opposite two posted a low-60s wRC+ in simply shy of 300 PA.

Pham is coming off a tough season with some disconcerting traits, however that’s precisely why he’s right here, making a modest wage for a staff that initiatives to be aggressive however a bit beneath .500. Possibly all of it comes collectively for the Pirates with a full season of Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, and Mitch Keller atop their rotation. If it doesn’t, you’ll be able to wager that some GM can be able to take a flyer on Pham in late July or August.