Jose Altuve Might Be on the Transfer — to Left Area

Jose Altuve, left fielder? The nine-time All-Star second baseman first instructed final month that he’d be keen to vary positions with a view to accommodate the potential return of free agent Alex Bregman. Whereas a reunion with the third baseman could also be a protracted shot at this level, Altuve has spent the previous couple weeks taking fly balls. The crew indicated earlier this week that he’ll get an prolonged have a look at the brand new place throughout spring coaching, and will cut up his time between left subject and second base throughout the common season. Whether or not it should work is one other matter.

The Astros nonetheless have a six-year, $156 million provide on the desk for Bregman, by far the highest free agent remaining in the marketplace, however the Tigers are in sizzling pursuit of him, and the Blue Jays, Cubs, and Purple Sox have additionally proven curiosity. On Tuesday, Astros basic supervisor Dana Brown made some headlines and raised some eyebrows when he described the crew as having “misplaced [Kyle] Tucker and Bregman,” placing the third baseman previously tense alongside the since-traded proper fielder. Nonetheless, Brown rapidly acknowledged, “We’re persevering with to have inside conversations as a result of he’s nonetheless out there.”

These discussions have included how the Astros would align their infield within the occasion Bregman returned. In the December commerce that despatched Tucker to the Cubs, they obtained Isaac Paredes, who has main league expertise in any respect 4 infield positions however has spent 86% of his innings at third over the previous two seasons. Every week later, they signed free agent Christian Walker to fill their first base emptiness. With Jeremy Peña entrenched at shortstop and Altuve at second, their infield would look like a completed product, albeit one which isn’t pretty much as good as a model that includes Bregman.

Altuve is aware of this in addition to anybody, and on the Astros’ FanFest on January 25, he raised the potential for a change to accommodate Bregman, his teammate for the previous 9 seasons — a run that has included eight straight journeys to the postseason, 4 pennants, two championships, and one scandal. “We haven’t talked about it, however for Alex I’d do no matter,” he mentioned. “He’s among the finest gamers in the entire league… We would like him to remain, and no matter I’ve to do for him to remain, I’m keen to do it.”

Altuve is coming off an All-Star season, albeit one that means he’s in decline — not that shocking provided that he’ll flip 35 on Could 6. He performed 153 video games, his highest complete since 2017, and whereas his .295/.350/.439 (127 wRC+) offensive efficiency was greater than ample, his slugging proportion was his lowest mark since 2013, and his wRC+ his lowest since ’14. What’s extra, he set a profession excessive with a ten.4% swinging strike fee; his 2.8-point spike in that class relative to 2023 was the fifth-highest within the majors, whereas his 17.4% strikeout fee set a full-season excessive.

Observe that the above comparisons omit Altuve’s dreadful 2020 exhibiting. In 48 video games that season, he batted .219/.286/.344 (74 wRC+) and struck out 18.6% of the time, although even then his swinging strike fee didn’t attain triple digits. His manufacturing rebounded the subsequent 12 months, as he hit for a 128 wRC+, and was even higher in 2022 (a career-high 164 wRC+) and ’23 (155 wRC+ in solely 90 video games).

Altuve’s decline from 2023 to ’24 wasn’t confined to the offensive facet. In keeping with Statcast’s defensive metrics — which don’t embody the worth of his throwing — he fell from -1 FRV to a career-worst -6. In the meantime, his DRS numbers have been brutal for the third 12 months in a row:

By DRS, Altuve has been the majors’ worst second baseman for 3 years in a row, and by Statcast, solely Jorge Polanco was worse final 12 months. I’m unsure what to make of the UZR pattern, aside from it serving to remind us that defensive metrics don’t all the time agree. A median of the three suggests Altuve’s protection has been typically dangerous throughout this three-year stretch, together with his 2023 efficiency — the beginning of which was delayed by surgical procedure to restore a damaged proper thumb suffered throughout the World Baseball Traditional, costing him 53 days — trying worse than the others on a prorated foundation (1,350 innings is roughly 150 video games).

The granular nature of Statcast’s breakdowns sheds additional gentle on Altuve’s woes. Consider these are by way of Outs Above Common, not runs:

The Vary and Launch breakdowns above signify two parts of OAA that aren’t at the moment revealed on Statcast, however previous good friend Mike Petriello generously provided them for the needs of this piece. They add as much as the OAA complete, simply because the directional In, Lateral, and Again breakdowns do (topic to rounding). What the Vary and Launch numbers inform us isn’t that his arm is nice — certainly, these Arm Energy metrics place him in single-digit territory starting from the fourth percentile in 2021 and ’22 to the seventh in ’24 — however that he’s correct, finishing the performs on balls he reaches. For what it’s price, he made only one throwing error final 12 months, his lowest full-season complete. As some extent of comparability, Bregman’s 6 OAA for 2024 breaks all the way down to an impressive +8 for vary and -2 for throwing; he had seven throwing errors.

The actions of the Astros and Altuve recommend they’re conscious of the final pattern of his defensive decline, however what to do about it’s one other query. Other than 4 innings at shortstop in 2016 and two extra in ’19, he’s by no means performed one other defensive place within the majors. He made just a few temporary cameos at third base within the minors earlier than enjoying six video games on the sizzling nook throughout the 2010–11 Venezuela Winter League season, and 7 extra at Double-A Corpus Christi in ’11, however aside from that, it’s been second base all the best way down, although the Astros have lengthy contemplated shifting him off the place. In keeping with a 2021 Sports activities Illustrated profile by Stephanie Apstein, basic supervisor Jeff Luhnow’s entrance workplace mulled relocating Altuve to heart subject given issues about his lateral vary (his -6 OAA in direction of first base was the majors’ lowest mark), and the prospect resurfaced when the second baseman battled the yips — associated to his having to make an extended throw from shortstop or proper subject on infield shifts — throughout his depressing 2020. The teaching employees talked Luhnow out of the transfer provided that it might need been seen as demoting the crew’s unofficial captain.

The outfield remained uncharted territory for Altuve till he just lately started taking fly balls in left at Daikin Park (previously Minute Maid Park). Brown provided a optimistic report on Tuesday:

“He was operating down balls within the hole,” Brown mentioned. “He regarded like he was having the time of his life. He regarded like he was slightly child on the market. His jumps off the bat have been actually good. Together with his foot pace, enjoying left subject, I believe he’s bought an opportunity to be actually good. I like what I noticed from a purely scouting standpoint.”

Like Altuve himself, Daikin Park’s left subject is relatively small. Due to the Crawford Bins, left subject is simply 315 toes down the road and 362 toes to left heart, although it’s 399 to deep left heart. The 19-foot wall is about three Altuves excessive, so it’s not as if they’ll lose out on house run robberies by enjoying him there as an alternative of a taller participant. That mentioned, Statcast isn’t so eager on Altuve’s foot pace. He positioned within the forty fourth percentile in 2024, up from the thirty eighth in ’23, however previous to that had by no means been under the seventieth percentile. Possibly a few of that has been self-preservation, a nod to growing old and a historical past that features a number of hamstring strains, however then going all-out extra typically in 2025 would recommend an elevated threat of damage.

The Astros are already in search of a left subject answer as a result of they will solely tolerate a lot damage threat and subpar protection from Yordan Alvarez, among the finest hitters on the planet. In 2024, Alvarez was 5 runs under common through each DRS and FRV — and that was in simply 53 video games totaling 421 innings in left. Supervisor Joe Espada mentioned on Tuesday that the crew is trying to reduce down his time on the market. With Chas McCormick slated to exchange Tucker in proper subject, and Jake Meyers in heart, the roster’s different options aren’t tremendously interesting. Brown mentioned on Tuesday that the crew would really like one other left-handed bat for the outfield, then added that the choices are “slim to none,” which wasn’t essentially the most flattering method to foreshadow Wednesday’s re-signing of Ben Gamel on a one-year, $1.2 million deal. The 32-year-old Gamel hit for a 115 wRC+ final 12 months, however that was through a wonky-looking .247/.384/.333 line throughout 99 plate appearances cut up between the Mets and Astros; he’s a profession .252/.334/.382 (96 wRC+) hitter, with a 98 wRC+ in opposition to righties, so it’s not as if he’s bought a formidable platoon cut up. The roster already contains 27-year-old lefty Taylor Trammell, a profession .167/.270/.363 (63 wRC+) hitter who made simply eight PA in 2024 cut up between the Dodgers and Yankees, and 30-year-old righty Mauricio Dubón, who noticed intensive obligation with the Astros, hitting a totally consultant .269/.296/.361 (87 wRC+) in 428 PA whereas enjoying each place however pitcher and catcher. His 67 video games in left have been by far his most at any spot, however he was a drag on the lineup.

Espada instructed reporters on Tuesday that Altuve remains to be taking groundballs at second however will get an prolonged look in left throughout spring coaching, giving the crew extra lineup flexibility. Studying between the strains, they like Dubón’s protection at second to Altuve’s, however that also exposes the previous’s weak bat, and absent a return from Bregman, their roster lacks a transparent third base various that might justify shifting Paredes to second, a place he didn’t play in any respect in 2024 (his metrics in 456.2 innings kind 2021–23 are vary from -3 DRS to three FRV).

To those eyes, it will make way more sense for the post-Bregman Astros to cobble collectively a left subject platoon of free brokers David Peralta (a lefty) and Mark Canha (a righty), and work Altuve into the combination in left whereas recognizing Dubón at second behind groundball machine Framber Valdez. Canha and Peralta have been each above league-average in 2024, and would considerably improve the roster relative to Gamel and Trammell. The Astros might extra simply milk an additional win or two out of these extra established (and considerably costlier) veterans than with an Altuve/Dubón alignment, and by the appears of our recent Playoff Odds, which have them as one in all three AL West groups forecast for 84 wins, they might use them. Lengthy story brief, the rationale you might even see Altuve operating round on the new place could have extra to do with {dollars} than it does sense.